04-11-2005, 01:31 PM #1Senior Member
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We'll Looks Like Sometime Early Next Year.
U.S. Commanders See Possible Cut in Troops in Iraq
By ERIC SCHMITT
WASHINGTON, April 10 - Two years after the fall of Saddam Hussein, the American-led military campaign in Iraq is making enough progress in fighting insurgents and training Iraqi security forces to allow the Pentagon to plan for significant troop reductions by early next year, senior commanders and Pentagon officials say.
Senior American officers are wary of declaring success too soon against an insurgency they say still has perhaps 12,000 to 20,000 hard-core fighters, plentiful financing and the ability to change tactics quickly to carry out deadly attacks. But there is a consensus emerging among these top officers and other senior defense officials about several positive developing trends, although each carries a cautionary note.
Attacks on allied forces have dropped to 30 to 40 a day, down from an average daily peak of 140 in the prelude to the Jan. 30 elections but still roughly at the levels of a year ago. Only about half the attacks cause casualties or damage, but on average one or more Americans die in Iraq every day, often from roadside bombs. Thirty-six American troops died there in March, the lowest monthly death toll since 21 died in February 2004.
Attacks now are aimed more at killing Iraqi civilians and security forces, and have been planned with sinister care and timing to take place outside schools, clinics and police stations when large daytime crowds have gathered.
Several top associates of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian militant whose network has claimed responsibility for many of the most deadly attacks, have been captured or killed in recent weeks. American commanders say it now takes longer for insurgents to regroup and conduct a series of attacks with new tactics, like the one on the night of April 2 against the Abu Ghraib prison that wounded 44 Americans and 13 Iraqi prisoners.
While senior commanders say the insurgency is still mostly driven by Iraqis, small numbers of foreign fighters who carry out most of the suicide bombings are still sneaking into the country, mainly from Syria.
The overall number of insurgents has remained virtually unchanged since last fall, even though hundreds, maybe thousands, have been killed or captured, suggesting that the insurgency can still attract the unemployed, disaffected and even enough true believers to keep the pool from drying up. American commanders also fear that the fledgling Iraqi government and security services are riddled with informants despite thorough vetting of applicants, officials say.
The American military's priority has shifted from waging offensive operations to training Iraqi troops and police officers. Iraqi forces now oversee sections of Baghdad and Mosul, with American forces on call nearby to help in a crisis. More than 2,000 American military advisers are working directly with Iraqi forces.
More Iraqi civilians are defying the insurgents' intimidation to give Iraqi forces tips on the locations of hidden roadside bombs, weapons caches and rebel safe houses. The Pentagon says that more than 152,000 Iraqis have been trained and equipped for the military or the police, but the quality and experience of those forces varies widely. Also, the Government Accountability Office said in March that those figures were inflated, including perhaps tens of thousands of police officers who are absent from duty.
Interviews with more than a dozen senior American and Iraqi officers, top Pentagon officials and lawmakers who have visited Iraq yield an assessment that the combination of routing insurgents from their sanctuary in Falluja last November and the Iraqi elections on Jan. 30 has given the military operation sustained momentum, and put the Bush administration's goal of turning Iraq over to a permanent, elected Iraqi government within striking distance.
"We're on track," Gen. Richard B. Myers, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in an interview. But the insurgency "kills virtually every day," he warned. "It's still a very potent threat."
Last edited by BUBBA74; 04-13-2005 at 06:15 AM.
04-11-2005, 01:35 PM #2
AOL only. What is the news?
The 40,000 troop pullout?
04-11-2005, 01:44 PM #3Senior Member
Originally Posted by inheritmylife
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04-11-2005, 01:46 PM #4Originally Posted by BUBBA74
04-13-2005, 06:16 AM #5Senior Member
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04-13-2005, 08:01 AM #6
so iraq will be left in the same ****hole like afghanistan...thats great I guess
04-14-2005, 10:10 PM #7
This war will never end, it will lessen but it will never end.
The insurgents will never be happy until the US withdraws every single soldier from the country.
And the US will want a military base in Iraq, after all the money and effort they put into the war.
04-15-2005, 06:29 AM #8
If the peak oil theories are right then the usa wont pull out thats for sure. Will be interesting to observe this.
04-15-2005, 09:59 AM #9Originally Posted by johan
I suppose we don't need to physically be there in order to have dibs on the oil.
04-15-2005, 11:44 AM #10
well a military prescense would make it harder for any other power to try and grab the oil when/if the energy crisis turns into war. Remember the usa only have the seaway to the middleast while europe and asia can go there by land.
Also a military prescense will make it easier to take control over saudi arabia and iran incase they get funny ideas to sell more oil to asia and europe instead of usa.
04-15-2005, 11:52 AM #11Originally Posted by johan
The strength of the US military is its expeditionary nature. In order to prevent a large scale ground invasion, divisions upon divisions of infantry are needed.
An "all for show" US military base in Iraq would do no more to prevent invasion than the 3rd(I think?) Army infantry division could do to prevent a North Korean thrust toward Seoul. They would be reduced to 10% within a week. This would not be enough time to reinforce their numbers with USMC MEFs.
The only thing that will prevent an invasion in Iraq is an Iraqi military of no less than 10 well-trained infantry divisions.
04-15-2005, 12:10 PM #12
I hope this process goes smoothly.........
04-15-2005, 02:17 PM #13
if a military network is established and alot of equpiment is in place its easier to send reinforcments. Especialy if several military bases are already in place. Or atleast I would think so? dont know much about military strategy.
Also military bases are kind of a formal "claim" to the ground. If any european or asian country where to advance against the middle east it would almost be like a war declaration if the us has bases there right? Im not thinking the imidet future now but maby 15 years ahead when the oil crisis are begining to get realy noticable.
04-15-2005, 02:46 PM #14Originally Posted by johan
In 50 years China will be able to slap the whole world around and there is nothing anyone can do about it.
04-15-2005, 02:48 PM #15
im more thinking 15 years. in 50 years oil will be a faint memory while our kids are thinking "**** they realy blew it and now I have to be this god **** farmer"
04-15-2005, 02:57 PM #16Originally Posted by johan
****, what are you talking about? Everything runs on water, wind, and sunlight over there in Sweden. You guys are golden. LOL.
If nothing is done to make the transition to alternative energy, and it may already be too late, there will be war, hunger, famine, and death.
The industrialized world may get a taste of what it is to be a member of the kingdom of animals again.
04-15-2005, 02:59 PM #17
yes we in sweden have it nice with the water and nuclear power. But how on earth are we to maintain those things without vehicles so we are equaly screwed unless we gang upp with norway and just split the oil they have. lol and we dont have that much wind and solar energy. Solar energy would suck here acctualy to upp north.
ohh well when the **** hits the fan Il rob the pharmacys so I have juice for a century and then Il move to a farm with lots of meat and chickens
04-15-2005, 08:43 PM #18Originally Posted by johan
And recently when Iran build a new pipeline to India, the US was going crazy, and yelling at India.
04-16-2005, 08:40 AM #19
I always used to think that the war was about oil was just bull****. But Im realy begining to rethink it if(the big if)the oil crisis is realy approaching so fast. If it realy is then the usa is doing the smartest thing they can for its country have to give them that. If I where bush I would do the same thing. Slowely gain control of the largest oild fields to ensure the survival of my own country and give it some more time so it can adapt to the new circumstances and step out in to the new oil free world way ahead of everyone else.
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