06-27-2005, 03:01 PM #1
War with china, get ready. As soon as 2 years
Chinese dragon awakens
By Bill Gertz
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
June 26, 2005
Part II: Thefts of U.S. technology boost China's weaponry
Part one of two
China is building its military forces faster than U.S. intelligence and military analysts expected, prompting fears that Beijing will attack Taiwan in the next two years, according to Pentagon officials.
U.S. defense and intelligence officials say all the signs point in one troubling direction: Beijing then will be forced to go to war with the United States, which has vowed to defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack.
China's military buildup includes an array of new high-technology weapons, such as warships, submarines, missiles and a maneuverable warhead designed to defeat U.S. missile defenses. Recent intelligence reports also show that China has stepped up military exercises involving amphibious assaults, viewed as another sign that it is preparing for an attack on Taiwan.
"There's a growing consensus that at some point in the mid-to-late '90s, there was a fundamental shift in the sophistication, breadth and re-sorting of Chinese defense planning," said Richard Lawless, a senior China-policy maker in the Pentagon. "And what we're seeing now is a manifestation of that change in the number of new systems that are being deployed, the sophistication of those systems and the interoperability of the systems."
China's economy has been growing at a rate of at least 10 percent for each of the past 10 years, providing the country's military with the needed funds for modernization.
The combination of a vibrant centralized economy, growing military and increasingly fervent nationalism has transformed China into what many defense officials view as a fascist state.
"We may be seeing in China the first true fascist society on the model of Nazi Germany, where you have this incredible resource base in a commercial economy with strong nationalism, which the military was able to reach into and ramp up incredible production," a senior defense official said.
For Pentagon officials, alarm bells have been going off for the past two years as China's military began rapidly building and buying new troop- and weapon-carrying ships and submarines.
The release of an official Chinese government report in December called the situation on the Taiwan Strait "grim" and said the country's military could "crush" Taiwan.
Earlier this year, Beijing passed an anti-secession law, a unilateral measure that upset the fragile political status quo across the Taiwan Strait. The law gives Chinese leaders a legal basis they previously did not have to conduct a military attack on Taiwan, U.S. officials said.
The war fears come despite the fact that China is hosting the Olympic Games in 2008 and, therefore, some officials say, would be reluctant to invoke the international condemnation that a military attack on Taiwan would cause.
Army of the future
In the past, some defense specialists insisted a Chinese attack on Taiwan would be a "million-man swim" across the Taiwan Strait because of the country's lack of troop-carrying ships.
"We left the million-man swim behind in about 1998, 1999," the senior Pentagon official said. "And in fact, what people are saying now, whether or not that construct was ever useful, is that it's a moot point, because in just amphibious lift alone, the Chinese are doubling or even quadrupling their capability on an annual basis."
Asked about a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan, the official put it bluntly: "In the '07-'08 time frame, a capability will be there that a year ago we would have said was very, very unlikely. We now assess that as being very likely to be there."
Air Force Gen. Paul V. Hester, head of the Pacific Air Forces, said the U.S. military has been watching China's military buildup but has found it difficult to penetrate Beijing's "veil" of secrecy over it.
While military modernization itself is not a major worry, "what does provide you a pause for interest and concern is the amount of modernization, the kind of modernization and the size of the modernization," he said during a recent breakfast meeting with reporters.
China is building capabilities such as aerial refueling and airborne warning and control aircraft that can be used for regional defense and long-range power projection, Gen. Hester said.
It also is developing a maneuverable re-entry vehicle, or MARV, for its nuclear warheads. The weapon is designed to counter U.S. strategic-missile defenses, according to officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The warhead would be used on China's new DF-31 long-range missiles and its new submarine missile, the JL-2.
Work being done on China's weapons and reconnaissance systems will give its military the capability to reach 1,000 miles into the sea, "which gives them the visibility on the movement of not only our airplanes in the air, but also our forces at sea," Gen. Hester said.
Beijing also has built a new tank for its large armed forces. It is known as the Type 99 and appears similar in design to Germany's Leopard 2 main battle tank. The tank is outfitted with new artillery, anti-aircraft and machine guns, advanced fire-control systems and improved engines.
The country's air power is growing through the purchase of new fighters from Russia, such as Su-30 fighter-bombers, as well as the development of its own fighter jets, such as the J-10.
Gen. Hester compared Chinese warplanes with those of the former Soviet Union, which were less capable than their U.S. counterparts, but still very deadly.
"They have great equipment. The fighters are very technologically advanced, and what we know about them gives us pause for concern against ours," he said.
Missiles also are a worry.
"It is their surface-to-air missiles, their [advanced] SAMs and their surface-to-surface missiles, and the precision, more importantly, of those surface-to-surface missiles that provide, obviously, the ability to pinpoint targets that we might have out in the region, or our friends and allies might have," Gen. Hester said.
The advances give the Chinese military "the ability ... to reach out and touch parts of the United States -- Guam, Hawaii and the mainland of the United States," he said.
To better deal with possible future conflicts in Asia, the Pentagon is modernizing U.S. military facilities on the Western Pacific island of Guam and planning to move more forces there.
The Air Force will regularly rotate Air Expeditionary Force units to Guam and also will station the new long-range unmanned aerial vehicle known as Global Hawk on the island, he said.
It also has stationed B-2 stealth bombers on Guam temporarily and is expected to deploy B-1 bombers there, in addition to the B-52s now deployed there, Gen. Hester said.
China's rulers have adopted what is known as the "two-island chain" strategy of extending control over large areas of the Pacific, covering inner and outer chains of islands stretching from Japan to Indonesia.
"Clearly, they are still influenced by this first and second island chain," the intelligence official said.
The official said China's buildup goes beyond what would be needed to fight a war against Taiwan.
The conclusion of this official is that China wants a "blue-water" navy capable of projecting power far beyond the two island chains.
"If you look at the technical capabilities of the weapons platforms that they're fielding, the sea-keeping capabilities, the size, sensors and weapons fit, this capability transcends the baseline that is required to deal with a Taiwan situation militarily," the intelligence official said.
"So they are positioned then, if [Taiwan is] resolved one way or the other, to really become a regional military power as well."
The dispatch of a Han-class submarine late last year to waters near Guam, Taiwan and Japan was an indication of the Chinese military's drive to expand its oceangoing capabilities, the officials said. The submarine surfaced in Japanese waters, triggering an emergency deployment of Japan's naval forces.
Beijing later issued an apology for the incursion, but the political damage was done. Within months, Japan began adopting a tougher political posture toward China in its defense policies and public statements. A recent Japanese government defense report called China a strategic national security concern. It was the first time China was named specifically in a Japanese defense report.
Energy supply a factor
For China, Taiwan is not the only issue behind the buildup of military forces. Beijing also is facing a major energy shortage that, according to one Pentagon study, could lead it to use military force to seize territory with oil and gas resources.
The report produced for the Office of Net Assessment, which conducts assessments of future threats, was made public in January and warned that China's need for oil, gas and other energy resources is driving the country toward becoming an expansionist power.
China "is looking not only to build a blue-water navy to control the sea lanes [from the Middle East], but also to develop undersea mines and missile capabilities to deter the potential disruption of its energy supplies from potential threats, including the U.S. Navy, especially in the case of a conflict with Taiwan," the report said.
The report said China believes the United States already controls the sea routes from the oil-rich Persian Gulf through the Malacca Strait. Chinese President Hu Jintao has called this strategic vulnerability to disrupted energy supplies Beijing's "Malacca Dilemma."
To prevent any disruption, China has adopted a "string of pearls" strategy that calls for both offensive and defensive measures stretching along the oil-shipment sea lanes from China's coast to the Middle East.
The "pearls" include the Chinese-financed seaport being built at Gwadar, on the coast of western Pakistan, and commercial and military efforts to establish bases or diplomatic ties in Bangladesh, Burma, Cambodia, Thailand and disputed islands in the South China Sea.
The report stated that China's ability to use these pearls for a "credible" military action is not certain.
Pentagon intelligence officials, however, say the rapid Chinese naval buildup includes the capability to project power to these sea lanes in the future.
"They are not doing a lot of surface patrols or any other kind of security evolutions that far afield," the intelligence official said. "There's no evidence of [Chinese military basing there] yet, but we do need to keep an eye toward that expansion."
The report also highlighted the vulnerability of China's oil and gas infrastructure to a crippling U.S. attack.
"The U.S. military could severely cripple Chinese resistance [during a conflict over Taiwan] by blocking its energy supply, whereas the [People's Liberation Army navy] poses little threat to United States' energy security," it said.
China views the United States as "a potential threat because of its military superiority, its willingness to disrupt China's energy imports, its perceived encirclement of China and its disposition toward manipulating international politics," the report said.
The report stated that China will resort "to extreme, offensive and mercantilist measures when other strategies fail, to mitigate its vulnerabilities, such as seizing control of energy resources in neighboring states."
U.S. officials have said two likely targets for China are the Russian Far East, which has vast oil and gas deposits, and Southeast Asia, which also has oil and gas resources.
Michael Pillsbury, a former Pentagon official and specialist on China's military, said the internal U.S. government debate on the issue and excessive Chinese secrecy about its military buildup "has cost us 10 years to figure out what to do"
"Everybody is starting to acknowledge the hard facts," Mr. Pillsbury said. "The China military buildup has been accelerating since 1999. As the buildup has gotten worse, China is trying hard to mask it."
Richard Fisher, vice president of the International Assessment and Strategy Center, said that in 10 years, the Chinese army has shifted from a defensive force to an advanced military soon capable of operations ranging from space warfare to global non-nuclear cruise-missile strikes.
"Let's all wake up. The post-Cold War peace is over," Mr. Fisher said. "We are now in an arms race with a new superpower whose goal is to contain and overtake the United States."
06-27-2005, 03:24 PM #2
We're really stupid if we go to war with China over Taiwan.......REALLY stupid......
probably result in a nuclear war.......this is very disturbing that we would put our country at risk over a little island like Taiwan......very silly......kinda a Martha Stewart move......risk it all over a couple thousand bucks.....
06-27-2005, 03:32 PM #3
China certainly has the right to maintain a military equal to the US
06-27-2005, 03:44 PM #4
I've been singing this same song for 15 years, China is going to be our biggest threat. Americans buying made in china crap need to change their ways. Why fatten the pockets of the enemy? so they can build up their military.
I agree with Badgerman, we would be fools to start what could easily end up as a nuclear war with China over Taiwan, which is theirs in my book.
06-27-2005, 03:45 PM #5
If a war break up it will be good for the middle east, the USA will loose its grip on the middle east and it will be too busy fighting a great power like china ,thus resulting in a decreased back up for Israel.
06-27-2005, 03:51 PM #6
MilitiaGuy that is the worst thing I have ever heard you say!! You should realize the middle east being the middleman between the two will more than likey suffer the most damage as both will be competing over the land as a forward deployment location for resources.
06-27-2005, 03:55 PM #7
A war with CHina would be bad for the whole world......no good will come of it
06-27-2005, 03:57 PM #8Originally Posted by Syndicate
06-27-2005, 03:57 PM #9
Exactly, I would hate to see a glowing cloud
06-27-2005, 04:02 PM #10
No one will use the nuclear powers it will be a high tech war between 2 great military powers with all the capabilities and :
1-If China win the USA will lose it face and it's status will decrease from a superpower to a great power, thus Israel will be in a big problem.
2-If USA win, China will get back to level 0 and USA gov will get more confidence and arrogance in it's relation with other countries.
06-27-2005, 04:03 PM #11
If China becomes a greater power to the US, Israel will start becoming buddies with China, and backstab the United States.
There are signs of this already.
06-27-2005, 04:05 PM #12
This situation would go nuclear... No sugar coating needed.. Two powers with everything at stake and if you know anything about honor in asian society, failure is not a option. I think the only reason they even have the word is to describe other countries.
06-27-2005, 04:05 PM #13
hey.. ever wonder about the radioactive fallout of a low yield nuke will do to an oilfield?? underground??
anyone think there is a market for radioactive oil??
and yes.. the usa has enough.. but why use our's when we can use your's???The answer to your every question
A bigot is a person obstinately or intolerantly devoted
to his or her own opinions and prejudices, especially
one exhibiting intolerance, and animosity toward those of differing beliefs.
If you get scammed by an UGL listed on this board or by another member here, it's all part of the game and learning experience for you,
we do not approve nor support any sources that may be listed on this site.
I will not do source checks for you, the peer review from other members should be enough to help you make a decision on your quest. Buyer beware.
Why the Police will Kick your ass
06-27-2005, 04:08 PM #14
China is growing, now they are stopping using Coal for energy, and now want Oil and Gas.
There will be interesting competition, between the US and China for Middle Eastern Oil.
Even a country like India, is buying Oil and Gas in large amounts.
06-27-2005, 04:10 PM #15Originally Posted by CAUSASIAN
06-27-2005, 04:21 PM #16Originally Posted by Syndicate
06-27-2005, 04:23 PM #17
looks like you better move your newly opened operation 3Vandoo...
06-27-2005, 04:46 PM #18Originally Posted by Syndicate
06-27-2005, 04:47 PM #19
Its sad that china is following all other nations just chasing the god damn oil instead of alternate fuel sources.
also if anyone has played the fallout pc games this is the backdrop to it. It plays in a post nuclera usa after a war betwen china and the usa over resources.
06-27-2005, 07:09 PM #20
Well, a terrible war can be avoided
if everyone cuts their energy use.
My guess is that not too many people
are gonna be wiling to give up their
gas hogs and live with less heat & air
conditioning . . .
So, we can pay now and have peace, or
later with a war. Betcha I know what it'll be . . .
06-27-2005, 09:24 PM #21Originally Posted by johan
In which there are three armies. USA, China, and the GLA who is a Islamic Terrorist Group.
06-27-2005, 09:48 PM #22
Just like japan did during the 1920's before ww2, china is the biggest importer of us steel. 20% of all Chinese exports go to wal-mart(thanks to Bill Clinton and NAFTA). 20 F***ing %. do yourself a favor dont be fat and shop at wal-mart. its not good for us in the long run.
Last edited by cavemanspearchucker; 06-27-2005 at 09:50 PM. Reason: spelling
06-28-2005, 12:41 AM #23
well, since i live in china, and work at the embassy, at first thought of war, theyd send me home...if they do, ill post here.
06-28-2005, 02:30 AM #24Originally Posted by CAUSASIAN
06-28-2005, 02:36 AM #25
beside, now nabih berreh was elected another time as the speaker of the lebanese parliament 90 votes from 128.
06-28-2005, 03:02 AM #26
As long as Rummy is in office, Im not worried.
06-28-2005, 03:07 AM #27
The man is a military genious, I dont care what people think of him.
Hillary is the next president(off the topic)
06-28-2005, 03:39 AM #28
military draft rite away , every man & woman....buy as much weapons and shit , call all the allies and take out china A.S.A.P...
06-28-2005, 03:43 AM #29Originally Posted by IronFreakX
06-28-2005, 03:50 AM #30Originally Posted by MilitiaGuy
06-28-2005, 04:33 AM #31Originally Posted by CAUSASIAN
06-28-2005, 09:56 AM #32
But China is a "Paper Tiger" the only one giving them super importance are the one involve with China (teacher, interpret, freaks)
Will is only going at his lost if going the superpower way.
06-28-2005, 10:49 AM #33
If china builds tanks and ships like they build there cheap cars and toys. There is nothing to worry about.
06-28-2005, 11:00 AM #34Originally Posted by Sta11ion
06-28-2005, 11:47 AM #35
It doesn't matter how they build ships or planes, they have ICBM's just like we do, actually thanks to stolen tech from us! They are a very serious threat that should not be taken lightly.
As someone mentioned, the Chinese and most asians do not understand the word surrender, maybe they can call the french for a quick refresher course
06-28-2005, 11:48 AM #36
China attacks Taiwan, North Korea see's its oppurtunity to attack South Korea. It could have a Dominoe affect across the Globe.
Revelation 6:4 And there went out another horse that was red: and power was given to him that sat thereon to take peace from the earth, and that they should kill one another: and there was given unto him a great sword.
I dont know who the red horse is, But God will grant the horse and its rider power to create worldwide war. This is the beginning of birth pangs. After this follows the black horse that represents famine caused by a world war.
Note: This verse comes after verse 2 which is a false peace that is short lived.
06-28-2005, 11:50 AM #37Originally Posted by Benches505
06-28-2005, 12:35 PM #38Originally Posted by Sta11ion
06-28-2005, 12:36 PM #39
China Opens Its Bomb Shelters
China's decision to open up massive bomb shelters to the public, ostensibly to provide a respite from summer heat, has U.S. intelligence analysts concerned about a possible strategic deception by Beijing, reports Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin.
The government made a high-profile public announcement, carried by the official Xinhua news agency, this week that bomb shelters in central Chongqing would be opened to the public to allow residents to cool off during a heat wave in which temperatures are reaching into the 90s.
Specifically, the announcement said, the government had decided to open 24 cool, underground air-raid shelters, most of them built in the 1960s and 1970s.
"A heat wave with high humidity has hit Chongqing since last week, making life unbearable to residents, many of whom only have electric or palm-leaf fans to cool off," the Xinhua report explained.
The government even planned to equip the shelters with free tea, chairs, books and newspapers for those trying to escape the heat.
The bomb shelters, the report said, covered an area of more than 70,000 square meters – or some 17.3 acres – and could accommodate tens of thousands of people.
While "civil defense" fallout shelters may sound like an anachronism to many in the West, the Chinese have maintained an elaborate, large and sophisticated system, as the size of the Chongquin facility suggests.
The shelters are built for quick and easy access to the public from home or work.
But some Western intelligence analysts believe there is more to this official announcement by the Chinese than public relations, reports Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin.
"I don't think the Chinese leadership is only interested in appearing beneficent and caring toward its people," one well-placed intelligence source told the premium online intelligence newsletter. "That might be a side benefit to this announcement, but I strongly suspect there is much more to this story than meets the eye."
The Chinese specialist agreed with others knowledgeable about nuclear arms that such a maneuver – opening up large fallout shelters to the public on a regular basis would serve two strategic purposes for Beijing:
It would familiarize the Chinese people with the shelters, making it easier to evacuate the public in times of potential nuclear attack.
It would confuse Western intelligence analysts who monitor movements of the Chinese public by satellite as evidence of the government's intentions.
In addition to monitoring missile launches, U.S. national security officials keep an eye on large-scale public movements in countries like China. If, for instance, city residents were seen moving in large numbers into fallout shelters, it would be a sign the government might be preparing for an attack of some kind.
But if such massive movements became routine – because shelters are opened up in the heat of summer and in the cold of winter to provide shelters from the elements – then such movements would more likely be disregarded as militarily insignificant in the West.
"Think about it," said one U.S. intelligence source. "If you were planning, at some point in the future, to launch a pre-emptive first strike on some enemy, wouldn't it make sense to do what the Chinese are doing?"
06-28-2005, 12:43 PM #40
China is not that crazy there too much economics importance in play, now imagine all the sanctions, the alientation they will throw around asia. The Indian, Paki, Russian, Japs, Koreans hate their guts
China will grow in military to prevent such nation to attack them, just as a prevent, they will go very slowly toward capitalism(like they do) and democracy very slowly, dont be surprise if in 20-30 years China is the world's biggest democracy and Taiwan will begs on their knees "take us back take us back!"
Users Browsing this Thread
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)