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  1. #1
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    What do you think of this iraq article

    http://www.spacewar.com/news/iraq-05zzzzzzr.html

    Made sense to me, but I dont know much about the situation.

    Outside View: What To Do About Iraq

    '...First, as long as the United States is in Iraq it can neither win nor lose the war...'
    By Barry Rubin
    UPI Outside View Commentator
    Herzilya, Israel (UPI) Nov 29, 2005
    A new and heated debate has broken out in the United States about future policy toward Iraq. As so often happens this argument is being conducted along partisan lines and over theories and symbols rather than focusing on the actual problem.
    Most Democrats press for a quick withdrawal, even demanding a timetable; most Republicans argue America must stay the course to prove U.S. credibility.

    Democrats promoted the "great" idea of passing a congressional resolution to tell Iraqis to get their act together because the Americans will not be there forever. Talk about insensitivity. The Iraqis are doing most of the dying and almost all of the suffering. They don't want to be dependent on the Americans and know how serious is the situation and how much they need to develop strong military forces.

    Meanwhile, the Bush administration tries to persuade everyone that things are going pretty well and that the insurgents are gradually losing ground. This is a dangerous line to take since it only takes one major insurgent attack to belie this claim.

    How about actually considering the situation on the ground? Here in rather blunt terms are the central issues: First, as long as the United States is in Iraq it can neither win nor lose the war. There is no way the insurgents will defeat the American forces. Indeed, they cannot even expand their base of support. Those committing terrorism are Arab Sunni Muslims who want to regain their community's control over the country either by returning a Saddam-like regime or creating an Islamist-style one. The Kurds, Turcoman, and Shiite Muslim Arabs who comprise more than 80 percent of Iraqis are not going to join them.

    By the same token, however, American troops cannot defeat the insurgents. No matter how many raids they stage there will always be more people ready to fight due to ideological fanaticism, financial gain, and sheer perception of Sunni self-interest. Moreover, the United States is not prepared to do what is necessary to root out this insurgency, which would involve such things as arresting thousands of people many of whom are innocent, ruthless interrogations, a certain amount of indiscriminate killing and flooding whole neighborhoods with masses of soldiers.

    So what's a superpower to do? The alternatives its great political minds offer are either to cut and run or get trapped in a quagmire. Not much of a choice, is it?

    It is a huge mistake to base one's policy on finding an ideal solution based on debates that have more to do with partisan gain or ideological assumptions rather than an understanding of the issue. Clearly, a responsible strategy is to stay for the next 18 months up to two years, do everything possible in that time to help the Iraqi government develop its own forces and a stable government, and then gradually pull out forces.

    One assumption, which must be questioned, is the idea that because the American troops cannot put down the insurgency, the Iraqi forces are far weaker and certainly are incapable of defending themselves. Obviously, this idea is based on the current state of Iraq's army, though after all much of the fault is due to the U.S. decision to dissolve the existing armed forces and not to the Iraqis themselves.

    But it is also largely derived from past American experience with different kinds of situations usually outside the Middle East. The common pattern was that the United States was supporting a regime that was not popular, or at least could not mobilize many people, fighting a Communist insurgency that could fight anywhere in the country. The government simply could not exist without U.S. support.

    This is not the case in Iraq, where the government will enjoy overwhelmingly popular support and be able to mobilize large numbers of armed men. In addition to the Kurdish militias there are also a lot of guns among the Shiites. Having so long been the victims of terrorism, these communities are highly motivated to fight the insurgents. Indeed, if anything the presence of U.S. forces have held them back.

    After an American withdrawal, the pro-regime forces are going to flatten the insurgents. They will not be gentle about it and the American military is not going to want to be there to take the blame for the human rights abuses that will no doubt occur. On a secondary level, an American departure is going to undermine the claims of the insurgents and reduce anger at the United States among Shiite elements. It will also give the ruling Shiite-Kurdish coalition a bigger incentive to try to reconcile those Sunnis willing to make a reasonable deal.

    The bottom line is the United States should not hurry up to leave Iraq but by the same token should not expect to be in Iraq too long. Pulling out in a reasonable time after Iraq has the chance to implement its new constitution, elect a government, and build up its forces is not something for the United States to fear.

    Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs Center, Interdisciplinary Center university. His co-authored book, "Yasir Arafat: A Political Biography," (Oxford University Press) is now available in paperback and in Hebrew. His latest book, "The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East," will be published by Wiley in September.

  2. #2
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    Johan, Barry Rubin is a very well respected academic and writer. His articles are great. I also agree that the US cannot simply pack up and go home now. It would be a grave error for the US and even worse for the new Iraqi government. Now, despite calls by the Iraqi government for US withdrawal, it is merely for political and media purposes only. It seems that behind closed doors, the Iraqi officials do not want the troops to leave yet. There is still a lot of training to be done (for the New Iraqi Military). They can't handle the situation yet. Keep reading Rubin. He's great. You can see more of his work at http://www.meforum.org Just type in his name under "search". Enjoy

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by AIZ
    Johan, Barry Rubin is a very well respected academic and writer. His articles are great. I also agree that the US cannot simply pack up and go home now. It would be a grave error for the US and even worse for the new Iraqi government. Now, despite calls by the Iraqi government for US withdrawal, it is merely for political and media purposes only. It seems that behind closed doors, the Iraqi officials do not want the troops to leave yet. There is still a lot of training to be done (for the New Iraqi Military). They can't handle the situation yet. Keep reading Rubin. He's great. You can see more of his work at http://www.meforum.org Just type in his name under "search". Enjoy
    Thanks for the link Il check around. I like his writing style

  4. #4
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    I think the decision of withdrawal was taken behind the scenes in USA, but USA will withdraw in a way that preserve its honor as a big military, honestly when USA entered Iraq in 2003 I was very pessimist and I thought they will invade other Arab country in their way, but the dedication of the Iraqi people and the resistance changed everything while other Arab governements where just watching, now I can say with confidence that Bush lost the war in Iraq, unless if his goal was just to destroy Iraq and take out Saddam then he won other than that it was a loss.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by MilitiaGuy
    I think the decision of withdrawal was taken behind the scenes in USA, but USA will withdraw in a way that preserve its honor as a big military, honestly when USA entered Iraq in 2003 I was very pessimist and I thought they will invade other Arab country in their way, but the dedication of the Iraqi people and the resistance changed everything while other Arab governements where just watching, now I can say with confidence that Bush lost the war in Iraq, unless if his goal was just to destroy Iraq and take out Saddam then he won other than that it was a loss.
    That's sad that you can say it in confidence that Bush lost the war
    1. Saddam and the Ba'athist Regime was overthrown. As an Arab Nationalist you should be glad he is gone, for what he did to his own people.
    2. A bona fide democratically elected government as was witnessed by 8 million Iraqis going to the polls.
    3. A sort of Arab "Prague Spring" began to unfold in the Middle East
    4. 1st democratic elections (municpal level in Saudi Arabia)
    5. Jordan is helping to train the new Iraqi Army
    6. Syria pulled out of Lebanon after 21 years
    7. Palestinians formed a new government

    The list goes on and on. While the pat on the back goes to the Arab people, if you knew anything about the war you would know that there was much more than military gains at stake. It was highly political and those have been achieved. The US was not about to invade other Arab nations. It had no reason to. M'Guy, I seriously question where you gather your info from. It's scary

  6. #6
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    1. Saddam and the Ba'athist Regime was overthrown. As an Arab Nationalist you should be glad he is gone, for what he did to his own people.
    I am not defending Saddam or his filthy acts, but honeslty Iraq nevery witnessed terrorist attack and this amount of chaos in Saddam's era, look at Iraq now , you only see destruction and blood and this all because of the USA invasion, I am a firm believer that democracy should come from inside not from outside, its its hypocricy invading other country in the name of democracy its total BS
    2. A bona fide democratically elected government as was witnessed by 8 million Iraqis going to the polls.
    tell me how democratic and clean can be elections under occupation?
    3. A sort of Arab "Prague Spring" began to unfold in the Middle East
    4. 1st democratic elections (municpal level in Saudi Arabia)
    the Arab gov are doing this just because they are afraid of pissing of their masters in USA, they arent doing it for the sake of the people or because they want it, do you if in Egypt or jordan there is a true democracy "israel" will be dismentaled?
    5. Jordan is helping to train the new Iraqi Army
    jordan whore king abdallah is your dear puppet.
    6. Syria pulled out of Lebanon after 21 years
    Syria and Lebanon were officials were negociating on withdrawing the Syrian army in 2007 but the assassination of PM hariri by "israel" made things go faster
    7. Palestinians formed a new government
    governement under occupation are nothing!

    The US was not about to invade other Arab nations. It had no reason to. M'Guy, I seriously question where you gather your info from. It's scary
    scary?

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by MilitiaGuy
    I am not defending Saddam or his filthy acts, but honeslty Iraq nevery witnessed terrorist attack and this amount of chaos in Saddam's era, look at Iraq now , you only see destruction and blood and this all because of the USA invasion, I am a firm believer that democracy should come from inside not from outside, its its hypocricy invading other country in the name of democracy its total BS

    tell me how democratic and clean can be elections under occupation?

    the Arab gov are doing this just because they are afraid of pissing of their masters in USA, they arent doing it for the sake of the people or because they want it, do you if in Egypt or jordan there is a true democracy "israel" will be dismentaled?

    jordan whore king abdallah is your dear puppet.

    Syria and Lebanon were officials were negociating on withdrawing the Syrian army in 2007 but the assassination of PM hariri by "israel" made things go faster

    governement under occupation are nothing!


    scary?

    I never realized until now, really, how myopic your views are. You're seriously lost. You live in some strange bubble where everything is everyone else's fault but the Muslims. For a guy who claims he's educated at a school that rivals Harvard, your answers are on par with al-Jazeera's training school. You're full soundbytes, hatred, and a lot of falsities. Honestly, I suggest you research more about the Iraq War and the Middle East Conflict. Read all sides. Try and understand all perspectives. You'll grow from it. Good luck

  8. #8
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    Sorry, but the US is loosing the war in Iraq. It is a mess over there. Some of the worst militarly planning I have ever seen in my life, even a 5 year old kid can plan a better war.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by CAUSASIAN
    Sorry, but the US is loosing the war in Iraq. It is a mess over there. Some of the worst militarly planning I have ever seen in my life, even a 5 year old kid can plan a better war.
    C, I agree its a mess, no doubt about it. Military planning was not the issue...it was an issue of "state building". That's where the US failed. Now, they are working towards that goal. Give it time. If you want to see less death, destruction, and bloodshed, let's get the foreign Mujahideen and Sunni Arabs to stop killing the thousands of Shiites and Kurds. The situation would be greatly improved if Muslims stopped killing Muslims in Iraq.

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    I am not sure if Kurds are acting like muslims these days! too many relations between the Kurds and the mosad, this is not a good thing.
    And Iraq is an Arab country , it was considered the capital of the Arab world , why and why the president is Kurdish , I cant understand it, I know the true powers and in the hand of the Prime minister but the President is the image of the country.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by MilitiaGuy
    I am not sure if Kurds are acting like muslims these days! too many relations between the Kurds and the mosad, this is not a good thing.
    And Iraq is an Arab country , it was considered the capital of the Arab world , why and why the president is Kurdish , I cant understand it, I know the true powers and in the hand of the Prime minister but the President is the image of the country.
    But Kurds in Iraq are Iraqi therefore they are equal citizens with equal rights, no? If only Arabs should be in power, doesn't this make you a racist?

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    Quote Originally Posted by AIZ
    But Kurds in Iraq are Iraqi therefore they are equal citizens with equal rights, no? If only Arabs should be in power, doesn't this make you a racist?
    They can have all the rights , but the presidency should be for an Arab not a Kurd , Iraq is an Arab country and its image should be Arabic , period!

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    Quote Originally Posted by MilitiaGuy
    They can have all the rights , but the presidency should be for an Arab not a Kurd , Iraq is an Arab country and its image should be Arabic , period!
    So, then its ok if Israel, being a Jewish State, only has a Jewish Prime Minister?

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    Quote Originally Posted by AIZ
    So, then its ok if Israel, being a Jewish State, only has a Jewish Prime Minister?
    NO ,because "israel" is illegal!

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    Quote Originally Posted by MilitiaGuy
    NO ,because "israel" is illegal!
    Gotta love the logic, M'guy

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    Quote Originally Posted by johan
    Thanks for the link Il check around. I like his writing style

    Yes, his style is great. There are other great analysts who write for that journal. You should look for Tashbih Sayyed and Willian Kristol.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AIZ
    Now, they are working towards that goal. Give it time.
    Its a little too much too late. The war is over. There will be insurgents 10 years from now or 50 years from now. Bad "management" and the company just went bankrupt.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CAUSASIAN
    Its a little too much too late. The war is over. There will be insurgents 10 years from now or 50 years from now. Bad "management" and the company just went bankrupt.
    I really feel sorry for you guys. The first thing, as an Israeli, Jew, and Zionist, when I saw all of those Iraqis, 8 million of them voting democratically, all I could think was: does it get better than this?

    You, a Muslim, only look for the defeat of the US, which has not occurred and bash on the progress that the Iraqis have made. Well, they have my support. I think they're an incredible people making difficult accomplishments

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    Quote Originally Posted by AIZ
    I really feel sorry for you guys. The first thing, as an Israeli, Jew, and Zionist, when I saw all of those Iraqis, 8 million of them voting democratically, all I could think was: does it get better than this?

    You, a Muslim, only look for the defeat of the US, which has not occurred and bash on the progress that the Iraqis have made. Well, they have my support. I think they're an incredible people making difficult accomplishments
    I dont belive in puppet governments. The Afghan government is a puppet government, and the Iraq government is a puppet government.

    Why should I be happy for the Iraqi people? They are not free, they are occupied by foreign armies. Its a funny logic, you cant be free when your occupied by a foreign army, that have checkpoints in your own country.

    When there are no foreign troops and they have elections I will be happy for them, until then I feel sorry for them.

    There has been absolutely no progress in Iraq. Conditions are worst than they have ever been, ever.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CAUSASIAN
    I dont belive in puppet governments. The Afghan government is a puppet government, and the Iraq government is a puppet government.

    Why should I be happy for the Iraqi people? They are not free, they are occupied by foreign armies. Its a funny logic, you cant be free when your occupied by a foreign army, that have checkpoints in your own country.

    When there are no foreign troops and they have elections I will be happy for them, until then I feel sorry for them.

    There has been absolutely no progress in Iraq. Conditions are worst than they have ever been, ever.
    Well, we all have opinions. Many would agree with me as many would disagree. I hope it works out in Iraq. I believe it can.

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