Time Magazine Article on Singularity = Mind Blowing

[tjax03]

If you guys have some time, give this article a read through. Very interesting with its possible implications for the future of humanity.

http://www.time.com/time/health/arti...048138,00.html

[Times Roman]

This has been out for years, mate. Check out the singularity institute... http://singinst.org/
The general idea is that at some point in time, AI will not only become self aware, but will also have the ability to self evolve to higher levels of intelligence, develop "off-spring" AI programs and generally outperform AI's human counterparts in every area of intelligence and computational power. The general concern and focus of the institute is to guide this inevitable evolution into something we can live with. They are developing an equivalent of the Ten Commandments that the AI must abide by. It seems doubtful that as the AI evolves to ever higher levels than we can possibly image, it seems doubtful AI will truly be bound by these "Ten Commandments".
The other interesting aspect of this thought exercise is that humans too can self evolve, and augment intelligence, memory, and access to outside data sources, including brain pools where individuals can communicate and otherwise share without any physical contact. Think brain implants with internet access on super steroids . I have written about the 5 evolutionary steps mortals might take to attain immortality, almost infinite intelligence, and almost infinite omnipresence. (In blogs, not books).
This is an incredibly fascinating area of discussion that I would whole heartedly embrace if there are others of similar interest?

[Times Roman]

Or *** can post a picture of a Bull taking a crap and we can all laugh?

[DSM4Life]

[tjax03]

This has been out for years, mate. Check out the singularity institute... http://singinst.org/
The general idea is that at some point in time, AI will not only become self aware, but will also have the ability to self evolve to higher levels of intelligence, develop "off-spring" AI programs and generally outperform AI's human counterparts in every area of intelligence and computational power. The general concern and focus of the institute is to guide this inevitable evolution into something we can live with. They are developing an equivalent of the Ten Commandments that the AI must abide by. It seems doubtful that as the AI evolves to ever higher levels than we can possibly image, it seems doubtful AI will truly be bound by these "Ten Commandments".
The other interesting aspect of this thought exercise is that humans too can self evolve, and augment intelligence, memory, and access to outside data sources, including brain pools where individuals can communicate and otherwise share without any physical contact. Think brain implants with internet access on super steroids . I have written about the 5 evolutionary steps mortals might take to attain immortality, almost infinite intelligence, and almost infinite omnipresence. (In blogs, not books).
This is an incredibly fascinating area of discussion that I would whole heartedly embrace if there are others of similar interest?

Yea I had heard of this theory before, but I think this article provides an extremely well written summary of its main ideas, and more importantly, provides the background evidence in support of it. You seem to know a great deal about this. I was particularly intrigued by one of the predictions that we will have successfully reverse engineered a complete human brain by the mid 2020's. Even as someone who is on their way to receiving both an MD and a PhD, this seems far fetched to me. Then again, that all goes with what Kurtzweil says that humans often cannot think about, or properly envision the potential of exponential growth.

[Times Roman]

Yea I had heard of this theory before, but I think this article provides an extremely well written summary of its main ideas, and more importantly, provides the background evidence in support of it. You seem to know a great deal about this. I was particularly intrigued by one of the predictions that we will have successfully reverse engineered a complete human brain by the mid 2020's. Even as someone who is on their way to receiving both an MD and a PhD, this seems far fetched to me. Then again, that all goes with what Kurtzweil says that humans often cannot think about, or properly envision the potential of exponential growth.

won't happen by 2020 mate. Not even close. Only now are we real good at DNA decoding. Back engineering a biological computational machine into a silicon computational machine doesn't make sense. More interesting is the extreme fledgling technology of quantam computing. IF we can ever harness and weild the powers of this technology, the implications are staggering! Three bits of binary = 2x2x2=8 outcomes. Three bits of quantam = 3x3x3=27 outcomes. Each additional quantam chip increases computational power over binary exponentially.

Another fledgling technology that holds extreme potential is biological computer chips. Not so much that they can compare to quantam computational power, but this is the bridge that holds so much promise for augmenting the human brain. The first step is to restore brain funtionality to individuals with impaired brain function, whether through traumatic event or dementia. There is hope that in 30 to 50 years this will be common. Second step is augmenting brain functionality to normal brains, thereby increasing memory, intelligence, and sensory perception. That could occur 10 to 15 years after the first step, and this is generally considered the second step.

[Times Roman]

ha ha ha... ya bit when I said that.... at first I put DSM, then changed my mind and put ***

[Times Roman]

we have discussed this in great detail on another BB. if you are interested in reading this and other similar discussions, you may PM me and I will send you a link. Some of the discussion is quite good....

[Times Roman]

This is the general overview of a "singularity" as discussed by the Singularity Institute... a long read, but if this sort of thing interests you as much as I, then it is a good read...

What is the Singularity?
The Singularity is the technological creation of smarter-than-human intelligence. There are several technologies that are often mentioned as heading in this direction. The most commonly mentioned is probably Artificial Intelligence, but there are others: direct brain-computer interfaces, biological augmentation of the brain, genetic engineering, ultra-high-resolution scans of the brain followed by computer emulation. Some of these technologies seem likely to arrive much earlier than the others, but there are nonetheless several independent technologies all heading in the direction of the Singularity – several different technologies which, if they reached a threshold level of sophistication, would enable the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence.

A future that contains smarter-than-human minds is genuinely different in a way that goes beyond the usual visions of a future filled with bigger and better gadgets. Vernor Vinge originally coined the term "Singularity" in observing that, just as our model of physics breaks down when it tries to model the singularity at the center of a black hole, our model of the world breaks down when it tries to model a future that contains entities smarter than human.

Human intelligence is the foundation of human technology; all technology is ultimately the product of intelligence. If technology can turn around and enhance intelligence, this closes the loop, creating a positive feedback effect. Smarter minds will be more effective at building still smarter minds. This loop appears most clearly in the example of an Artificial Intelligence improving its own source code, but it would also arise, albeit initially on a slower timescale, from humans with direct brain-computer interfaces creating the next generation of brain-computer interfaces, or biologically augmented humans working on an Artificial Intelligence project.

Some of the stronger Singularity technologies, such as Artificial Intelligence and brain-computer interfaces, offer the possibility of faster intelligence as well as smarter intelligence. Ultimately, speeding up intelligence is probably comparatively unimportant next to creating better intelligence; nonetheless the potential differences in speed are worth mentioning because they are so huge. Human neurons operate by sending electrochemical signals that propagate at a top speed of 150 meters per second along the fastest neurons. By comparison, the speed of light is 300,000,000 meters per second, two million times greater. Similarly, most human neurons can spike a maximum of 200 times per second; even this may overstate the information-processing capability of neurons, since most modern theories of neural information-processing call for information to be carried by the frequency of the spike train rather than individual signals. By comparison, speeds in modern computer chips are currently at around 2GHz – a ten millionfold difference – and still increasing exponentially. At the very least it should be physically possible to achieve a million-to-one speedup in thinking, at which rate a subjective year would pass in 31 physical seconds. At this rate the entire subjective timespan from Socrates in ancient Greece to modern-day humanity would pass in under twenty-two hours.

Humans also face an upper limit on the size of their brains. The current estimate is that the typical human brain contains something like a hundred billion neurons and a hundred trillion synapses. That's an enormous amount of sheer brute computational force by comparison with today's computers – although if we had to write programs that ran on 200Hz CPUs we'd also need massive parallelism to do anything in realtime. However, in the computing industry, benchmarks increase exponentially, typically with a doubling time of one to two years. The original Moore's Law says that the number of transistors in a given area of silicon doubles every eighteen months; today there is Moore's Law for chip speeds, Moore's Law for computer memory, Moore's Law for disk storage per dollar, Moore's Law for Internet connectivity, and a dozen other variants.

By contrast, the entire five-million-year evolution of modern humans from primates involved a threefold increase in brain capacity and a sixfold increase in prefrontal cortex. We currently cannot increase our brainpower beyond this; in fact, we gradually lose neurons as we age. (You may have heard that humans only use 10% of their brains. Unfortunately, this is a complete urban legend; not just unsupported, but flatly contradicted by neuroscience.) An Artificial Intelligence would be different. Some discussions of the Singularity suppose that the critical moment in history is not when human-equivalent AI first comes into existence but a few years later when the continued grinding of Moore's Law produces AI minds twice or four times as fast as human. This ignores the possibility that the first invention of Artificial Intelligence will be followed by the purchase, rental, or less formal absorption of a substantial proportion of all the computing power on the then-current Internet – perhaps hundreds or thousands of times as much computing power as went into the original Artificial Intelligence.

But the real heart of the Singularity is the idea of better intelligence or smarter minds. Humans are not just bigger chimps; we are better chimps. This is the hardest part of the Singularity to discuss – it's easy to look at a neuron and a transistor and say that one is slow and one is fast, but the mind is harder to understand. Sometimes discussion of the Singularity tends to focus on faster brains or bigger brains because brains are relatively easy to argue about compared to minds; easier to visualize and easier to describe. This doesn't mean the subject is impossible to discuss; section III of our "Levels of Organization in General Intelligence" does take a stab at discussing some specific design improvements on human intelligence, but that involves a specific theory of intelligence, which we don't have room to go into here.

However, that smarter minds are harder to discuss than faster brains or bigger brains does not show that smarter minds are harder to build – deeper to ponder, certainly, but not necessarily more intractable as a problem. It may even be that genuine increases in smartness could be achieved just by adding more computing power to the existing human brain – although this is not currently known. What is known is that going from primates to humans did not require exponential increases in brain size or thousandfold improvements in processing speeds. Relative to chimps, humans have threefold larger brains, sixfold larger prefrontal areas, and 98. 4% similar DNA; given that the human genome has 3 billion base pairs, this implies that at most twelve million bytes of extra "software" transforms chimps into humans. And there is no suggestion in our evolutionary history that evolution found it more and more difficult to construct smarter and smarter brains; if anything, hominid evolution has appeared to speed up over time, with shorter intervals between larger developments.

But leave aside for the moment the question of how to build smarter minds, and ask what "smarter-than-human" really means. And as the basic definition of the Singularity points out, this is exactly the point at which our ability to extrapolate breaks down. We don't know because we're not that smart. We're trying to guess what it is to be a better-than-human guesser. Could a gathering of apes have predicted the rise of human intelligence, or understood it if it were explained? For that matter, could the 15th century have predicted the 20th century, let alone the 21st? Nothing has changed in the human brain since the 15th century; if the people of the 15th century could not predict five centuries ahead across constant minds, what makes us think we can outguess genuinely smarter-than-human intelligence?

Because we have a past history of people making failed predictions one century ahead, we've learned, culturally, to distrust such predictions – we know that ordinary human progress, given a century in which to work, creates a gap which human predictions cannot cross. We haven't learned this lesson with respect to genuine improvements in intelligence because the last genuine improvement to intelligence was a hundred thousand years ago. But the rise of modern humanity created a gap enormously larger than the gap between the 15th and 20th century. That improvement in intelligence created the entire milieu of human progress, including all the progress between the 15th and 20th century. It is a gap so large that on the other side we find, not failed predictions, but no predictions at all.

Smarter-than-human intelligence, faster-than-human intelligence, and self-improving intelligence are all interrelated. If you're smarter that makes it easier to figure out how to build fast brains or improve your own mind. In turn, being able to reshape your own mind isn't just a way of starting up a slope of recursive self-improvement; having full access to your own source code is, in itself, a kind of smartness that humans don't have. Self-improvement is far harder than optimizing code; nonetheless, a mind with the ability to rewrite its own source code can potentially make itself faster as well. And faster brains also relate to smarter minds; speeding up a whole mind doesn't make it smarter, but adding more processing power to the cognitive processes underlying intelligence is a different matter.

But despite the interrelation, the key moment is the rise of smarter-than-human intelligence, rather than recursively self-improving or faster-than-human intelligence, because it's this that makes the future genuinely unlike the past. That doesn't take minds a million times faster than human, or improvement after improvement piled up along a steep curve of recursive self-enhancement. One mind significantly beyond the humanly possible level would represent a Singularity. That we are not likely to be dealing with "only one" improvement does not make the impact of one improvement any less.

Combine faster intelligence, smarter intelligence, and recursively self-improving intelligence, and the result is an event so huge that there are no metaphors left. There's nothing remaining to compare it to.

The Singularity is beyond huge, but it can begin with something small. If one smarter-than-human intelligence exists, that mind will find it easier to create still smarter minds. In this respect the dynamic of the Singularity resembles other cases where small causes can have large effects; toppling the first domino in a chain, starting an avalanche with a pebble, perturbing an upright object balanced on its tip. (Human technological civilization occupies a metastable state in which the Singularity is an attractor; once the system starts to flip over to the new state, the flip accelerates.) All it takes is one technology – Artificial Intelligence, brain-computer interfaces, or perhaps something unforeseen – that advances to the point of creating smarter-than-human minds. That one technological advance is the equivalent of the first self-replicating chemical that gave rise to life on Earth.

[tjax03]

won't happen by 2020 mate. Not even close. Only now are we real good at DNA decoding. Back engineering a biological computational machine into a silicon computational machine doesn't make sense. More interesting is the extreme fledgling technology of quantam computing. IF we can ever harness and weild the powers of this technology, the implications are staggering! Three bits of binary = 2x2x2=8 outcomes. Three bits of quantam = 3x3x3=27 outcomes. Each additional quantam chip increases computational power over binary exponentially.

Another fledgling technology that holds extreme potential is biological computer chips. Not so much that they can compare to quantam computational power, but this is the bridge that holds so much promise for augmenting the human brain. The first step is to restore brain funtionality to individuals with impaired brain function, whether through traumatic event or dementia. There is hope that in 30 to 50 years this will be common. Second step is augmenting brain functionality to normal brains, thereby increasing memory, intelligence, and sensory perception. That could occur 10 to 15 years after the first step, and this is generally considered the second step.

That is what was intriguing about the article. Of course it seems so outlandish to think we could do something like that within 15 years. However if you have asked someone 15 years ago if a computer could beat human contestants on Jeopardy or if we could grow tissues in vitro by 2010, they would think the exact same thing. The mathematical models for technological advancement since the advent of the first circuits all predict this speed of progress. The fact is, nobody can say for certain at this point whether it will, or will not happen, but is remains a possibility.

[tjax03]

Thanks for all the info, I am at work at the moment but will try to read through it when I get the chance. Hopefully someone else will join in on this topic. However I don't think there is enough ZYZZ to attract posters.

[Times Roman]

That is what was intriguing about the article. Of course it seems so outlandish to think we could do something like that within 15 years. However if you have asked someone 15 years ago if a computer could beat human contestants on Jeopardy or if we could grow tissues in vitro by 2010, they would think the exact same thing. The mathematical models for technological advancement since the advent of the first circuits all predict this speed of progress. The fact is, nobody can say for certain at this point whether it will, or will not happen, but is remains a possibility.

still won't happen by 2020. Back engineering means to take an existing working example, tear it apart, and learn how to re-manufacture based on the original. Mate, at best, right now, we can build a single gate biological chip. And it's "shelf life" is short. First, we need to learn how to stabilize the bio chip, then start building multigate bio chips.... but to do the brain, we would have to do that a trillion times, plus learn about nerves, neurons and synapses....

back engineering a brain is not a step or two away... it is several technological leaps away. not by 2020

[tjax03]

Haha again I understand you argument. I am not arguing that we are anywhere near that point. I have a great deal of knowledge in biology and understand the task at hand. I am just going with what the models predict as a possibility. You may very well be right, but you can't absolutely rule it out.

[Times Roman]

there is always the possibility that a Bill Gates devoutes all his resources and assembles a team of "Einstiens" in a variety of relevent fields, all with a singular focus of obtaining such an endeavour. But we are talking about developing technologies we currently do not possess yet. This means many exploratory pursuits with enivatbale dead-ends which also means time. Our discussion revolves around the timeline of 2020 or so, which means not much time either.

This is probably analagous to saying (but at a much lower level) we will have a viable human colony on mars by 2020. The Mars project seems much more viable since we already have sufficient technology.

[Times Roman]

when developing a technology, much trial and error is involved. You know this as a biologically minded individual. When working with possible outcomes, thousands of combinations need to be explored in the hopes of finding one success. it is possible that several success can be made without all the time required for all the other thousands of attempts, and thereby saving much time. but this is about as likely as me picking all 7 winning lotto numbers ten days in a row.

It is interesting to think about, none the less.

[MACHINE5150]

okay.. just to be clear.. since i am not very up to date with computer talk this is regarding the creation of computers that are smarter than humans right??? is that not already the case?? or is it simply saying they will be able to make a computer that is self aware and solves its own problems not just the problems we tell it to solve??

also, are they attempting to utilize this technology in the form of brain implants?? therefore creating a way to "synch" computers and our brains to make us smarter??

just need some clarification on this.. great read by the way TR

[Times Roman]

okay.. just to be clear.. since i am not very up to date with computer talk this is regarding the creation of computers that are smarter than humans right???

there are two aspects to AI (artificial intelligence)
1) hardware, and..
2) software

we currently have sufficient technology to satisfy the requirement for the first aspect.

the second aspect, software, is orders of magnitude more difficult. in the beginning, our thought process was to develop a ready made "AI" that is ready to go...
....now we are learning that it would be better to create an AI that needs to learn, much the way a baby leans about it's environment... some through trial and error, some through observation, and some already hardwired in...... for an AI to be successful, there should be an evolutionary process, much the way a childs brain grows and matures....

[Times Roman]

is that not already the case??

it depends on how you look at it.... if the only thing the AI is required to do is play chess, then we are already there. But a human mind can do thousands of different things, and no computer can come anywhere close to the versatility of the human mind... we are still light years ahead in this area

[Times Roman]

or is it simply saying they will be able to make a computer that is self aware and solves its own problems not just the problems we tell it to solve??

there are two aspects to creating AI:
1) thinking quicker
2) thinking smarter

the first aspect is easy, since Human neurons operate by sending electrochemical signals that propagate at a top speed of 150 meters per second along the fastest neurons. By comparison, the speed of light is 300,000,000 meters per second, two million times greater.
So silicon chips have a huge and obvious advantage over our biological "chips"

Most of the chess programs tackle the problem by employing various aspect 1 solutions. But aspect 2 requires thinking in ways that ordinarily would not occur to us, such as creative thinking instead of just throwing more processing power at the problem.

The ultimate purpose of AI is not to solve narrow minded "problems" which is a by product of a truly deep understanding of our universe around us... in the example in an article, the cure for cancer could simply be a by product of another greater issue, the lack of external programming for a cell. Once we concquer that issue, then not only will we hav the cure for cancer, but disease in general, and possibly mortality itself.

[Times Roman]

also, are they attempting to utilize this technology in the form of brain implants??
therefore creating a way to "synch" computers and our brains to make us smarter??

two seperate issues.
brain implants....
we currently possess a fledgling technology that employs biology in the form of a basic logic gate, stimulate it one way, and you get an open gate, stimulate it another way, and you get a closed gate. This is the first "bio-chip" which gives us two possible outcomes, much the same as a silicon chip. Two problems... 1) the bio chip has a very short shelf life, and 2) we have yet (as of about a year ago) not been able to put two of these chips together in a series to improve it's computatoinal power.

Fast forward a few years to where we have a bio chip that has a fairly sophisticated and stable computational power. The first step in evolving our intelligence and/or "brain power" is to augment those that are imparied either due to trauma and/or dimentia. This is aprox 30 to 50 years away (give or take 10 years - this means no one is really sure). The next step is to improve the cognative abilities of those that have normal brain function, this means better memory, improved intelligence, and better sernsory perception... can you imagine having the same sense of smell as a blood hound?

Anyways, until there is a functioning bio chip, there really won't be a feasible way of direct brain/computer interfacing.

[Times Roman]

there are three more steps in the evolution of human intelligence!

hint: the human brain as we know it is a limiting factor!

[Times Roman]

I'm going to have to crash for the night.... we can pick this up again tomorrow.

'nite all!

[bushido3374]

Then there's always the issue of how intelligence is defined and quantified.

Will AI ever be capable of painting a masterpiece? I wonder if AI will ever have independent, full range thinking and reasoning abilities, or if it's destined to be the yin-yang that we have to supply with creativity and soul.

What is the definition of singularity in this case?

[MACHINE5150]

okay much clearer now TR.. thanks for that. I am very fascinated by this type of technological evolution. get some rest.

[Times Roman]

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[Times Roman]

Then there's always the issue of how intelligence is defined and quantified.

Will AI ever be capable of painting a masterpiece? I wonder if AI will ever have independent, full range thinking and reasoning abilities, or if it's destined to be the yin-yang that we have to supply with creativity and soul.

What is the definition of singularity in this case?

The Singularity is the technological creation of smarter-than-human intelligence.

Two points:
1) Smarter does NOT mean faster processing speeds and ability to crunch large quantities of data.
Remember the Movie Rainman? Dustin Hoffman had significant computational abilities, yet his IQ was very low.
2) Smarter does mean an ability to learn very quickly and to think creatively in ways we cannot imagine. But when technology creates this aspect, smarter-than-human intelligence, it is clear it will be coupled with the first aspect as well, extreme processing speed.

Since intelligence is also coupled with creativity, there is no doubt something as simple as painting artistically will be a challange easily overcome.

The impact of the singularity on our future is something we can only imagine, but it will be a humanity changing event the likes of which we have yet to see.

And it is coming mates, have no doubt. AND I will probably see it in MY lifetime!

[Times Roman]

OK... I'm off to the german clinic for my 6 immunizations

[bushido3374]

good stuff. i understood some of it.

[Times Roman]

there are other interesting subjects we could discuss.....

twin paradox
how the universe would be perceived IF a traveler were to attain light speed (riding a rocket in the saddle of a photon)
how the universe would be perceived IF a traveler were to cross the event horizon of a galaxy size black hole
how to think about a black hole
or.....?

the only thing missing mates is a big bon fire, the company of some good friends, and a good jug of wine for us to pass around

damn! I miss being home already