John Lott disassembles (and refutes) the most common gun control myths

[Beetlegeuse]

This is John Lott's presentation to C-Span. John Lott is not a gun guy, he's a statistician and an acadamician. In fact until 1993 he was a registered demoncrat. Then he began work on a paper published in 1996 (with David Mustard) titled Crime, Deterrence, and Right-to-Carry Concealed Handguns, unbiased research showing that, in a nutshell, more guns equals less crime. That experience was the cause of his "Road to Damascus" conversion.

I believe he made the speech on July 20 and it was posted to the Internet on the 28th. In the video he summarily goes throught the most common anti-gun myths and disassembles them, not only showing that they are wrong but also showing how THE LEFT is deliberately misrepresenting and distorting the data to make a political point. Hence the title of his latest book, War On Guns.

It's 49 minutes long, and worth every minute it you're a gun guy.

[Beetlegeuse]

This is the unedited closed captioning for the Lott speech. Sorry about the "all caps," but the best I could have done is convert it to all lower case, which would have been just as hard to read. The text was >30,000 characters, which is too long so I arbitrarily split it into two posts.




ARE YOU WITH THE PEOPLE HERE? (music)...MY NAME IS JOHN LOTT, PRESIDENT OF A CRIME PREVENTION RESEARCH CENTER. CHIEF ECONOMIST AT U.S. SENTENCING COMMISSION AND I'VE HAD POSITIONS THAT ARE IN A VARIETY OF DIFFERENT UNIVERSES LIKE WHARTON BUSINESS SCHOOL, UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO, STANFORD, YALE. I'M GOING TO TALK TO A LITTLE BIT ABOUT SOME OF THE MISIMPRESSION THAT PEOPLE HAVE ABOUT GUNS AND CRIME. NORMALLY, I'M A VERY EMPIRICAL GUY. I WOULD GO AND SHOW YOU LOTS OF GRAPHS AND STUFF. A LITTLE BIT STYMIED ON THAT GIVEN THE TECHNICAL ISSUE THAT WE HAVE HERE BUT THERE IS STILL LOTS OF ISSUES WE CAN GO AND TALK ABOUT. SO, JUST OFF THE TOP OF MY HEAD, A COUPLE OF CLAIMS WE HAVE FREQUENTLY HEAR ABOUT, ONE IS THAT BACKGROUND CHECKS GO AND STOP ABOUT 3.5 MILLION DANGEROUS PROHIBITED PEOPLE FROM OBTAINING GUNS. EVERYBODY WANTS TO TRY TO STOP CRIMINALS OR OTHER PEOPLE WHO MIGHT BE DANGEROUS FROM BEING ABLE TO GO AND GET A HOLD OF GUNS. PROBLEM IS THAT CLAIMS THAT ARE MADE SIMPLY ARE NOT CORRECT. YOU KNOW, RATHER THAN SAYING 3.5 MILLION PEOPLE HAVE BEEN STOPPED FROM BUYING GUNS, WHAT THEY SHOULD ACTUALLY SAY IS THAT THERE HAVE BEEN 3 AND A HALF MILLION INITIAL DENIALS. AND THAT ALMOST ALL OF THOSE ARE MISTAKES. IT IS ONE THING TO STOP SOMEBODY WHO IS A FELON FROM BUYING GUNS. IT IS NOTHING TO STOP SOMEBODY SIMPLY BECAUSE THEY HAVE A NAME SIMILAR TO A FELON BUYING A GUN. FOR EXAMPLE, THE LAST FULL ANNUAL REPORT THAT WAS PUT OUT ON THE BACKGROUND CHECK SYSTEM IN 2010, THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION STOPPED PUTTING OUT THESE REPORTS. YOU HAD ABOUT 76,000 INITIAL DENIALS. YOU ONLY HAD 48 CASES REFERRED FOR PROSECUTIONS. THEY PROSECUTED 26 OF THEM AND THEY GOT 13 CONVICTIONS. OFTEN, YOU WILL HEAR THINGS LIKE WELL, THEY'RE NOT ENFORCING THE LAW. THE THING IS THAT SAME TINY RAID OF PROSECUTIONS WAS TRUE UNDER CLINTON, UNDER BUSH, UNDER OBAMA. AND REPUBLICANS ATTACK DEMOCRATS FOR NOT ENFORCING THE LAW AND DEMOCRATS ATTACK REPUBLICANS FOR NOT ENFORCING THE LAW. BUT IF YOU TALK TO THE PEOPLE WHO ARE ACTUALLY INVOLVED IN THESE AGENCIES THEY SAY THEY WOULD LOVE TO ENFORCE THEM. IF THEY WERE REAL CASES. BUT YOU KNOW JUST BECAUSE YOUR SUMMARY THAT HAS A SIMILAR NAME TO SOMEONE YOU WANT TO STOP, YOU'RE NOT GOING TO GO AND DO ENFORCEMENT ACTIONS AGAINST THEM. WHEN YOU BUY A GUN, YOU FILL OUT SOMETHING CALLED 844 73. HE PUT YOUR NAME, ADDRESS, SOCIAL SECURITY NUMBER RACE, EYE COLOR. YOU'RE GIVING THEM ALL THE INFORMATION YOU THINK THAT THEY ARE USING A LOT OF THE INFORMATION. WHAT THEY USE IS ROUGHLY PHONETICALLY SIMILAR NAMES. AND SIMILAR BIRTHDAYS. I CAN GIVE YOU A LOT OF CASES WHERE PEOPLE HAVE SIMPLY BECAUSE THEY HAVE SIMILAR NAMES TO SOMEONE ELSE, THEY HAVE BEEN STOPPED FROM BEING ABLE TO GO AND BUY A GUN. PROBLEM IS, IT IS THE MOST VULNERABLE PEOPLE IN OUR SOCIETY WHO HAVE BEEN HARMED THE MOST. AS A RESULT OF THIS. BECAUSE IT IS PRIMARILY MINORITIES THAT ARE PREVENTED FROM BEING ABLE TO GO AND BUY GUNS AS A RESULT OF THE PROCESS. PEOPLE TEND TO HAVE NAMES SIMILAR TO OTHERS IN THEIR RACIAL GROUPS. HISPANICS HAVE NAMES SIMILAR TO OTHER HISPANICS, BLACKS HAVE SIMILAR NAMES TO OTHER BLACKS. AND THERE ARE MANY LEGALLY PROHIBITED FROM OWNING GUNS BECAUSE OF CRIMINAL PAST HISTORY. WHOSE NAMES YOU THINK THEIR NAMES ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE CONFUSED WITH? OTHER LAW-ABIDING GOOD BLACK MALES WHO WANT TO GO AND DEFEND THEMSELVES AND THEIR FAMILIES. YOU KNOW, YOU CAN GO AND APPEAL WHEN YOU HAVE THESE TYPES OF MISTAKES.THE PROBLEM IS THAT IT COSTS MONEY. MOST PEOPLE GO TO FIND IT NECESSARY TO GO AND HIRE A LAWYER TO GO AND HELP THEM AND YOU KNOW, IT CAN COST 3000 AND COST OF THE $10,000 IN ORDER TO GO THROUGH THE LEGAL PROCESS TO FIX IT. DO SOMETHING THAT IS ABSOLUTELY NO FAULT OF THEIR OWN. NOT ONLY ARE YOU HAVING SO THAT MINORITIES ARE OVERWHELMINGLY BEING STOPPED BUT IT IS BASICALLY MIDDLE INCOME BLACKS AND HISPANICS. MY RESEARCH, IF IT CONVINCES ME OF ANYTHING IT SAYS THE PEOPLE WHO ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE VICTIMS OF VIOLENT CRIME, POOR BLACKS WHO LIVE IN HIGH CRIME URBAN AREAS. THEY ARE THE ONES WHO BENEFIT BY FAR THE MOST FOR HAVING A GUN TO PROTECT THEMSELVES. IT WAS GREAT IF POLICE WERE THERE ALL ATTEMPT TO PROTECT PEOPLE BUT THE POLICE THEMSELVES KNOW THAT THEY HAVE VIRTUALLY ALWAYS ARRIVE ON THE CRIME SCENE AFTER THE CRIME HAS OCCURRED AND IT RAISES REAL QUESTIONS ABOUT WHAT PEOPLE SHOULD DO. WHEN THEY'RE HAVING TO -- THERE WE GO. HOLD ON A SECOND. OKAY. NOW WE ARE SET. REAL QUESTIONS ABOUT WHAT THEY SHOULD DO WHEN THEY HAPPENED TO CONFRONT A CRIMINAL BY THEMSELVES. LET ME JUST FINISH UP AND THEN I WILL GO TO THE MAIN THING I WAS GOING TO TALK ABOUT. THAT IS IT'LL BE EASY TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. THERE'S REALLY NO REASON WHY THESE MISTAKES SHOULD BE OCCURRING. COMPANIES DO CRIMINAL BACKGROUND CHECKS ON EMPLOYEES ALL THE TIME. IF COMPANIES COME WHEN THEY DO BACK GROUND CHECKS ON EMPLOYEES HAVE AN ERROR RATE THAT IS 100 THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RATE THEY WOULD SUED OUT OF EXISTENCE. IF YOU EVER WANT TO GO AND DEBATE SOMEBODY WHO IS PUSHING THESE TYPES OF BACKGROUND CHECKS, JUST ASK THEM, WHY IT IS THAT WE DON'T HAVE THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT HAVING TO MEET THE SAME STANDARDS FOR DOING CRIMINAL BACKGROUND CHECKS THAT THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEMANDS THAT PRIVATE COMPANIES HAVE TO MEET. IF A PRIVATE COMPANY JUST USED ROUGHLY PHONETICALLY SIMILAR NAMES, DEMOCRATS WOULD BE SCREAMING BLOODY MURDER THAT THAT WOULD RESULT IN DISCRIMINATION AGAINST MINORITIES. WHY IF IT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE THE PRIVATE COMPANIES DO, WHY NOT GO AND REQUIRE THAT THE GOVERNMENT HAS TO DO THE SAME THING. BUT IF YOU BRING IT UP TO GUN CONTROL ADVOCATES, THEY WILL BE SCREAMING POISON PILL. AND SAY THAT YOU'RE JUST TRYING TO -- I THINK PERSONALLY THEY FIGHTS ARE GASSY BECAUSE IT'S A LOT BETTER TO SAY THERE'S 3.5 MILLION DANGEROUS OR PROHIBITED PEOPLE HAVE BEEN STOPPED FROM BUYING GUNS THEN TO GO AND SAY IT IS 35,000 OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT. AND EVEN WHEN YOU LOOK AT THOSE NUMBERS, THESE ARE NOT DANGEROUS CRIMINALS. THESE ARE USUALLY PEOPLE WHO DIDN'T REALIZE THAT THEY MADE A MISTAKE. I WILL GIVE YOU AN EXAMPLE. PROBABLY ONE OF THE MORE EGREGIOUS EXAMPLES. THERE IS A MAN WHO WAS 65, HIS WIFE WHO HAD GOTTEN THREATS AT HER JOB, SHE IS GOING TO GET A CONCEALED CARRY PERMIT. HE DECIDED THAT AS A GIFT HE WOULD GO AND BUY HER A HANDGUN. HE WENT INTO A STORE, FILLED OUT THE PAPERWORK THERE, TURNS OUT THAT 43 YEARS EARLIER, HE GOT INTO A FIST FIGHT WITH HIS BROTHER IN THEIR FRONT YARD. THE NEIGHBORS HAD CALLED THE POLICE. HE'D BEEN ARRESTED AND HE PLEADED GUILTY TO DOMESTIC VIOLENCE. A MISDEMEANOR DOMESTIC VIOLENCE CHARGE. IT IS A PROHIBITED THING. AND THE PROSECUTION ARGUED THAT HE SURELY DIDN'T FORGET THAT HE HAD THIS PROHIBITION THERE. AND THAT HE SHOULD HAVE UNDERSTOOD WHEN HE WAS FILLING OUT THE FORM AND SIGNING AT THE BOTTOM SAYING THAT EVERYTHING WAS CORRECT, THAT HE WAS IN FACT PROHIBITED FROM BUYING A GUN. BUT HE WAS CONVICTED OF PERJURY. AND SENTENCED TO THREE YEARS IN JAIL. THOSE ARE NOT THE TYPES OF PEOPLE YOU KNOW, YOU NOT GETTING REALLY HARDENED CRIMINALS. CRIMINALS MAY BE STUPID BUT THEY ARE NOT SO STUPID THAT THEY GO TO SOMEBODY WHO'S GOING TO DO A BACKGROUND CHECK WHEN THEY KNOW THEY HAVE SPENT TWO YEARS IN JAIL AND THEY ARE PROHIBITED FROM BEING ABLE TO GO AND DO THAT. SO I MEAN IT WOULD BE NICE IF THESE THINGS COULD BE FIXED. THEY WOULD BE EASY TO FIX. AND I HAVE OFTEN TOLD PEOPLE IN THE GUN-CONTROL MOVEMENT FOR 20 YEARS, IF THEY FIX SOME SIMPLE THINGS THEY COULD EASILY GET THESE TYPES OF BACKGROUND CHECKS ON PRIVATE TRANSFERS PAST. THE FACT THAT THEY WILL FIGHT AGAINST WHAT I REGARD AS VERY REASONABLE CHANGES, IN THE CASE THAT THEY'RE NOT REALLY INTERESTED IN GETTING THIS PAST. WHAT THEY'RE MORE INTERESTED IN IS JUST MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR LAW-ABIDING CITIZENS TO BE ABLE TO GO AND GET GUNS. SO I WANT TO GO THROUGH SOME OF THE COMMON CLAIMS. I DON'T KNOW IF YOU CAN SEE THIS, THE THING HERE BUT SOME OF THE COMMON CLAIMS THAT ARE MADE. ONE OF THE MOST COMMON CLAIMS IS THAT THE UNITED STES IS UNIQUE IN TERMS OF FIREARM HOMICIDE. I WILL JUST BE SHOWING YOU SOME GRAPHS THAT ARE IN THE NEW YORK TIMES OR IN PUBLICATION CALLED -- WHICH HAVE GOTTEN A LOT OF ATTENTION OVER TIME. AND -- HELLO? I WILL TRY TO SPEAK LOUDLY. ANYWAY, YOU CAN SEE, HERE IS A SET OF 14 COUNTRIES THAT THEY HAVE WHERE IT SHOWS HOMICIDE, ABOUT 30 4 MILLION PEOPLE IN THE UNITED STATES MUCH HIGHER THAN IT IS IN OTHER COUNTRIES. HERE IS SOMETHING FROM THE NEW YORK TIMES WHERE THEY HAVE 11 COUNTRIES, 11 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES WITH UNITED STATES HAVING ABOUT THREE PER 100,000 PEOPLE. HIGHER THAN ITALY, CANADA, SWEDEN, SWITZERLAND AND OTHER COUNTRIES. THERE ARE A LOT OF ISSUES WITH THIS. ONE OF THE ISSUES IS THERE ARE A LOT MORE COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD. A LOT MORE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. THERE ARE LIKE 36 COUNTRIES THAT MEET KIND OF THE STANDARDS FOR WHAT IS CONSIDERED DEVELOPED COUNTRY. THERE'S AN ORGANIZATION CALLED THE OECD WHICH IS KIND OF THE CLUB FOR DEVELOPED COUNTRIES AND ITS RULES BASED ON INCOME AND PRODUCTION THAT THEY HE BUT FOR SO I JUST WANT TO SHOW YOU HOW THE UNITED STATES COMPARES TO ALL COUNTRIES. THEN O'SHEA WITH REGARD TO ALL DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. THE BLUE LINE OVER HERE IS THE AVERAGE. FOR HOMICIDE RATES. THE GREEN IS FOR THE MEDIAN AND THE RED IS FOR THE UNITED STATES. THE UNITED STATES IS WELL BELOW THE AVERAGE, WELL BELOW THE MEDIAN ALSO. SO MORE THAN HALF OF THE COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD HAVE A HIGHER HOMICIDE RATE THAN THE UNITED STATES. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF THINGS TO POINT OUT HERE BRIEFLY. ONE IS, THAT PEOPLE SEEM TO THINK MURDERS AND HOMICIDES ARE THE SAME THING. THEY'RE NOT. AND IT MAKES A DIFFERENCE IN THESE TYPES OF GRAPHS. THE BIG DIFFERENCE IS, HOMICIDES ARE MURDERS AND JUSTIFIABLE HOMICIDES. IS IT REALLY CLEAR TO ME WHY YOU WANT TO LUMP TOGETHER JUST TO FILE HOMICIDES ALONG WITH MURDER. CASES WHERE POLICE OFFICERS BEING THREATENED BY CRIMINAL AND HAS TO KILL A CRIMINAL OR SO MUSIC GUN IN SELF-DEFENSE. UNITED STATES HAS A LOT MORE JUSTIFIABLE HOMICIDES THAN OTHER COUNTRIES. YOU KNOW THAT WOULD LOWER OUR RATE BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT OR SO FROM WHAT WE HAVE HERE AND WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE. MOST COUNTRIES DON'T COME OF THIS MAJOR COUNTRY DON'T REPORT MURDERS. THEY JUST REPORT HOMICIDES AND IT MAKES ONE DIFFERENCE THERE. WHAT PEOPLE OFTEN DO WHEN THEY MAKE COMPARISONS ACROSS COUNTRIES IS TO LOOK AT NOT HOMICIDES BUT FIREARM HOMICIDES. IF YOU LOOK AT FIREARM HOMICIDES, THE AVERAGE IS UP HERE, THE UNITED STATES IS OVER HERE, MUCH HIGHER THAN THE MEDIAN. SO WHY IS IT SO MUCH HIGHER IN TERMS OF FIREARM HOMICIDES THEN WE ARE IN TERMS OF TOTAL HOMICIDES? IF YOU LOOK AT THE GRAPH CAREFULLY, YOU CAN SEE THE LINES LOOK A LITTLE THICKER, THERE ARE A LOT FEWER NAMES THERE. 44 PERCENT OF THE COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD DON'T REPORT FIREARM HOMICIDE DATA. IN THE COUNTRIES THAT DON'T REPORT FIREARM HOMICIDE DATA ARE THE COUNTRIES THAT HAVE, TENDED TO HAVE THE HIGHEST HOMICIDE RATES. SO THE REASON WHY WE LOOK RELATIVELY HIGH IN TERMS OF FIREARM HOMICIDES IS THAT THE COUNTRIES WITH THE HIGH HOMICIDE RATES AREN'T REPORTING THE FIREARM HOMICIDE RATE DATA. SO IT IS NOT THAT WE REALLY HIGHER THAN THE OTHER COUNTRIES, IT'S JUST THAT THEY ARE REMOVING, THEY JUST NOT PROVIDING THE DATA FOR THOSE OF THE COUNTRIES. AND THAT MAKES US LOOK RELATIVELY WORSE. THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT WE ARE PARTICULARLY HIGH IN TERMS OF FIREARM HOMICIDE IF YOU ACTUALLY HAD THE DATA FOR ALL THE COUNTRIES. I WILL JUST MENTION, ON BOTH OF THESE GRAPHS SOME OF THE REALLY WORST COUNTRIES DO NOT REPORT THE DATA OR DO NOT REPORT THEM VERY ACCURATELY. YOU KNOW YOU HAVE PLACES LIKE CHICAGO OR PHILADELPHIA WHICH HAVE HAD CORRUPTION ISSUES AND IN TERMS OF ACCURATELY PROVIDING CRIME DATA. THAT IS SOMETHING WE ACTUALLY SEE QUITE COMMON IN OTHER COUNTRIES. AND IF HE DOES LOOK A DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, YOU CAN SEE THERE ARE SOME DEVELOPED COUNTRIES THAT ARE MUCH HIGHER HOMICIDE RATE DATA THAN WE HAVE HERE IN THE UNITED STATES. BRAZIL, ABOUT SIX TIMES HIGHER THAN WHAT WE HAVE HERE. RUSSIA IS MUCH HIGHER, CHILE, AND THIS IS A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN THE UNITED STATES IN RECENT YEARS. ONE THING THAT IS A LITTLE BIT MISLEADING AND I'LL POINT OUT, I THINK IT IS MISLEADING TO TALK ABOUT A U.S. HOMICIDE RATE. BECAUSE IT VARIES SO DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. TWO PERCENT OF THE COUNTIES IN THE UNITED STATES ACCOUNT FOR OVER HALF OF THE MURDERS IN THE UNITED STATES. AND IF YOU EVER LOOK AT YOU KNOW THE MAKE UP A LITTLE OVER 20 PERCENT OF THE POPULATION. BUT IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT IS CALLED A MURDER MAP, WHICH WILL GRAB OUT WITH THE MURDERS OCCUR IN DIFFERENT COUNTIES, WHAT YOU'LL FIND IS THAT BASICALLY WITHIN ABOUT A 10 BLOCK AREA WITHIN THOSE HIGH MURDER COUNTIES, YOU WILL FIND OVER HALF THE MURDERS OCCURRING THERE. SO THEY ARE VERY HEAVILY CONCENTRATED AND VERY TINY AREAS WITHIN THE UNITED STATES. AND BASICALLY IT IS DRUG GANG RELATED. SO WE HAVE A RELATIVELY HIGH HOMICIDE MURDER RATE COMPARED TO MANY COUNTRIES SIMPLY BECAUSE WE HAVE A MUCH WORSE DRUG GANG PROBLEM.FOR EXAMPLE MEXICO. HAS AN EVEN WORSE DRUG GANG PROBLEM THEN US IN THE DISTASTE FOR DAVE EXTREMELY STRICT GUN CONTROL LAWS IN MEXICO. SINCE 1972 THEY HAVE ONLY HAD ONE GUN STORE IN THE COUNTRY. IT IS IN MEXICO CITY RUN BY THE MILITARY. GUNS ARE EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE. THE MOST POWERFUL RIFLES YOU CAN BUY IN MEXICO ARE 22 CALIBER RIFLES. NOT WHAT THE DRUG GANGS ARE USING. AND BASICALLY JUST AS A DRUG GANGS BRINGING DRUGS FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD TO BRING WEAPONS IN ORDER TO DO THAT. I WANT TO TALK A LITTLE ABOUT ANOTHER NUMBER AND I WILL PUT THESE TOGETHER. ONE OF THE OTHER COMPARISONS PEOPLE MAKE IS IN TERMS OF GUN OWNERSHIP RATES. THIS IS BASICALLY FROM 2007 HAD ABOUT 89 GUNS PER 100 PEOPLE. AND YOU CAN SEE SWITZERLAND IS ABOUT 46 AND SO ON. I WOULD DO THIS DIFFERENTLY. THERE WERE PROBLEMS WITH THIS, THE SOURCE FOR THIS DATA IS SOMETHING CALLED THE SMALL ARMS SURVEY. IT IS SAID IN THE NEW YORK TIMES, "WASHINGTON POST" ALL THE TIME. IF YOU'RE INTERESTED GO LOOK AT THE DATA. IF YOU GO TO THE FOOTNOTES YOU WILL FIND THAT THEY DON'T PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR ABOUT 85 PERCENT OF THE COUNTRIES THEY LIST. I'VE BEEN ASKING FOR FIVE YEARS NOW, CAN YOU GIVE ME YOUR STRESS BECAUSE I HAVE REAL PROBLEMS WITH SOME OF THE DATA YOU ARE HAVING HERE. THEY BASICALLY REFUSED TO GO AND ACTUALLY SAY WHERE THEY GOT THEIR DATA FROM. SO ON A BELIEVE THESE NUMBERS. BUT IT IS SOMETHING YOU'RE GOING TO SEE ALL THE TIME IN THE MEDIA. AND NO, THERE ARE OTHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS. FOR EXAMPLE, EVEN THE COUPLE COUNTRIES THAT THEY GIVE DATA FOR LIKE SWITZERLAND, WHAT THEY ARE LOOKING AT IS PRIVATE OWNERSHIP OF GUNS. WELL, SWITZERLAND AT THIS POINT WOULD REQUIRE ALL ABLE-BODIED MALES BETWEEN THE AGES OF 18 AND 36 TO HAVE A MILITARY ISSUED MACHINE GUN AND IN MANY CASES, A HANDGUN IN THEIR HOME. NOW, IS IT THE OWNERSHIP OF GUNS THAT MATTERS OR THE POSSESSION OF GUNS THAT MATTER? I WOULD THINK IF YOU'RE WORRIED ABOUT PEOPLE BEHAVING RESPONSIBLY OR IRRESPONSIBLY, WITH GUNS, POSSESSION OF GUNS SHOULD MATTER RATHER THAN THE OWNERSHIP. AND IF YOU WERE TO FIX THIS FOR SWITZERLAND AND ISRAEL, WHICH THEY SAY ONLY HAS SEVEN GUNS PER 100 PEOPLE, YOU KNOW ISRAEL THE VAST MAJORITY OF GUNS ARE OWNED BY THE GOVERNMENT. AND YOU KNOW YOU MAY BE IN POSSESSION OF A GUN FOR 40 YEARS. BUT THE GOVERNMENT TECHNICALLY OWNS IT. HOW DO YOU COUNT THEM? THEY IGNORE THIS. IF YOU WERE TO FIX THAT, BOTH SWITZERLAND AND ISRAEL IN TERMS OF POSSESSION RATES, ARE HIGHER THAN WHAT WE HAVE HERE IN THE UNITED STATES. AND YOU GET SIMILAR TYPES OF CLAIMS HERE SO FOR EXAMPLE, ONE OF THE CLAIMS YOU'LL SEE IS THAT MAKES UP OVER FOUR PERCENT OF THE WORLD POPULATION. BUT 42 PERCENT OF ALL CIVILIAN OWNED GUNS IN THE WORLD ARE IN THE UNITED STATES. THERE ARE LOTS OF PROBLEMS WITH THIS BEYOND THE FACT THAT IT'S BASED ON THIS NONEXISTENT DATA FOR A LOT OF COUNTRIES. BUT EVEN THE COUNTRIES THAT THEY DO HAVE DATA FOR, THEY WILL RELY ON A SURVEY AND LET ME GIVE AN EXAMPLE OF THE PROBLEMS WITH THE SURVEYS. CANADA FOR EXAMPLE, IF YOU LOOK AT SURVEYS OF LONG GUN OWNERSHIP IN THE EARLY 1990S OR EVEN THE MID-1990S, YOU'LL FIND ABOUT 8 AND A HALF MILLION CANADIANS ON SURVEYS WITH SAYING THEY OWN LONG GUNS. WHEN THEY STARTED THE LONG GUN REGISTRY IN THE LATE 90S, ALL OF A SUDDEN THE SURVEYS COULD ONLY FIND ABOUT THREE AND HALF MILLION CANADIANS THAT WAS SAY THAT THEY OWNED LONG GUNS. IT COULD BE THAT YOU HAD ABOUT 5 MILLION CANADIANS THAT SOLD THEIR GUNS INSTANTLY. OR YOU HAD THEM DESTROY THEIR GUNS. BUT YOU WOULD MEASURE FOR 5 MILLION CANADIANS THAT WERE ALL OF A SUDDEN SELLING OFF THEIR GUNS IT WOULD HAVE BEEN NOTICED BY THE MEDIA A LITTLE BIT. THE GUN STORES MIGHT HAVE NOTICED PEOPLE IN MASKS TRYING TO TURN IN THEIR GUN. NOTHING LIKE THAT IS TALKED ABOUT. IN FACT THERE WERE SOME INCREASE IN SALES IT LOOKS LIKE AT THAT TIME.BUT YOU CAN IMAGINE THAT ONCE YOU HAVE A REGISTRY COMING OF SOMEBODY CALLING UP ON THE PHONE ASKING WHETHER OR NOT YOU KNOW YOU ONLY LONG GONE, YOU MAY NOT, YOU MAY THINK IT IS FROM THE GOVERNMENT OR SOMETHING AND YOU MAY BE RETICENT IF YOU ARE BREAKING NOT TO SAY I HAVE A GUN AND I HAVE NOT REGISTERED, I AM BEHAVING ILLEGALLY. SO THE REAL REASONS TO BELIEVE THAT THIS NUMBER IS PRETTY WORTHLESS FOR MULTIPLE REASONS. IT IS TREMENDOUSLY EXAGGERATING THE U.S. SHARE. SO LET'S PUT THESE NUMBERS TOGETHER. ON THE ONE THING I TALKED ABOUT HOMICIDE RATES OR FIREARM HOMICIDE RATES ACROSS COUNTRIES. I'VE ALSO TALKED ABOUT GUN OWNERSHIP RATES. ONE OF THE THING ABOUT GUN OWNERSHIP RATES, WHAT YOU REALLY WANT TO DO IS NOT LOOK AT NUMBER OF GUNS PER 100 PEOPLE. I WOULD ARGUE WHAT YOU WOULD WANT TO LOOK AT THE PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION THAT OWNS GUNS. YOU KNOW I COULD HAVE ONE PERCENT OF THE POPULATION ON 100 GUNS EACH OR I CAN HAVE 100 PERCENT OF THE POPULATION OWNING ONE GUN EACH. IF I'M TALKING THE ISSUES OF SELF-DEFENSE, OR PEOPLE BEHAVING IMPROPERLY, IT SEEMS LIKE KNOWING THE PERCENT OF THE POPULATION WITH GUNS IS A LOT MORE USEFUL NUMBER THEN GOING AND LOOKING AT THE NUMBER OF GUNS PER 100 PEOPLE. BUT THEY USE THE NUMBER OF GUNS PER PEOPLE AND GET THIS TYPE OF GRAPH THEN THAT SHOWS GUN OWNERSHIP HERE AND YOU LOOK AT GUN RELATED DEATHS HERE AND YOU GET THIS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE UNITED STATES BEING WAY OUT THERE ALL BY ITSELF. AND HERE'S JUST MY OWN GRAPH SHOWING HOMICIDE RATES AND THIS MEASURE OF GUN OWNERSHIP. I'M ONLY INCLUDING SOME OF THE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES IN HERE. THIS IS NOT INCLUDING YOUR LIKE RUSSIA OR BRAZIL. AND I WILL SHOW YOU WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU CHANGE THE GRAPH. BUT LET'S SAY WERE TO ASK A QUESTION. AND THE QUESTION IS, WHAT CAN THE UNITED STATES LEARN FROM OTHER DEVELOPED COUNTRIES EXCLUDING SOME OF THE ONES WITH REALLY HIGH HOMICIDE RATES LIKE RUSSIA AND BRAZIL. AND IF YOU ASK THE QUESTION, WHAT YOU FIND IS IN FACT THE COUNTRIES WITH THIS MEASURE OF HOMICIDE AND GUN OWNERSHIP WHICH I HAVE PROBLEMS WITH BUT SINCE YOU SEE THESE GRAPHS IN THE NEW YORK TIMES AND PLACE LIKE THAT I JUST WANTED TO KIND OF LET YOU KNOW HOW SENSITIVE THE RESULTS ARE. YOU FIND THAT IN FACT LOOKING AT ALL NON-US COUNTRIES, THERE IS A NEGATIVE RELATIONSHIP THAT MORE GUNS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER HOMICIDE RATE THEN YOU WOULD'VE GONE PREVIOUSLY. NOW IF YOU ADD IN THE HIGH HOMICIDE COUNTRIES LIKE BRAZIL AND RUSSIA, IT MAKES IT EVEN MORE NEGATIVE, EVEN IF YOU INCLUDE THE UNITED STATES IN THERE. THE THING IS, WITH THE UNITED STATES WAY OUT HERE BY ITSELF, AGAIN, I'M USING THEIR LOW NUMBERS FOR GUNS FOR SWITZERLAND AND ISRAEL OVER HERE. UNITED STATES AND HERE ALL BY ITSELF -- IF YOU WERE TO FIX THIS, SWITZERLAND AND ISRAEL THOSE TWO COUNTRIES WOULD BE WAY OUT HERE. RIGHT BY THEMSELVES. I JUST WANT YOU TO KNOW KIND OF HOW SENSITIVE THESE RESULTS ARE AND HOW IT JUST DEPENDS ON ONE OBSERVATION IN THERE AND HOW THEY ARE EXCLUDING SOME OF THE OTHER OBSERVATIONS THAT ARE THERE. SO IF YOU WERE TO GO AND LOOK AT ALL COUNTRIES, NOT JUST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, YOU FIND THE COUNTRIES WITH THE MOST GUNS HAVE THE LOWEST HOMICIDE RATES. YOU CAN LOOK AT IT FOR FIREARM HOMICIDES, AGAIN YOU FIND THE COUNTRIES WITH THE MOST GUN OWNERSHIP RATES HAVE THE LOWEST HOMICIDE RATES. BUT WE SEE THIS ALSO IN TERMS OF MASS PUBLIC SHOOTINGS. THIS IS FROM THE NEW YORK TIMES. THEY PUBLISHED THE SAME GRAPH A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT TIMES. THEY WILL GO AND USE THE GUN OWNERSHIP RATE NUMBERS FROM THE SMALL ARMS SURVEY AND THEY WILL USE THE MASS PUBLIC SHOOTING RATE FROM SEVERAL CALLED ADAM LANGFORD AT UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA AND THEY WILL SHOW THI TYPE OF POSITIVE RELATIONSHIP AGAIN THAT IS THERE. THERE ARE A COUPLE PROBLEMS WITH THIS. ONE, WHEN LANGFORD STARTED PUTTING OUT THESE NUMBERS AND WHEN THE NEW YORK TIMES IS USING IT HE WOULD , HE WOULD NOT GIVE OUT THE LIST OF MASS PUBLIC SHOOTINGS AROUND THE WORLD. HE CLAIMED THAT FROM 1966 THROUGH 2012, 31 PERCENT OF ALL THE MASS PUBLIC SHOOTERS IN THE ITED STATES OR THE WORLD WERE FROM THE UNITED STATES. 202 FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD AND THOSE 47 YEARS. 90 FROM THE UNITED STATE S.AND THAT GOT MASSIVE COVERAGE. PRESIDENT OBAMA WAS CONSTANTLY SIDING THESE CLAIMS. DURING HIS ADMINISTRATION TO CLAIM THAT THE UNITED STATES WAS UNIQUE IN TERMS OF MASS PUBLIC SHOOTINGS. WAY UP THERE. ANYWAY, I ASKED FOR THE DATA, EVEN GUN CONTROL ADVOCATES TO ASK FOR HIS MASS PUBLIC SHOOTINGS AROUND THE WORLD AND WERE REFUSED. AND FINALLY A COUPLE OF YEARS AGO, I DECIDED TO BITE THE BULLET AND THE CRIME PREVENTION RESEARCH CENTER, YOU CAN FIND OUR LIST OF THE CASES FROM AROUND THE WORLD ON OUR WEBSITE CRIME RESEARCH.ORG. I DO KNOW HOW TO FIND CASES WHERE PEOPLE ARE SHOT IN AFRICA OR PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA IN THE 1960S. WHERE THE 1970S.AND HE NEVER EXPLAINED HOW HE COULD GET A COMPLETE LIST OF ALL OF THESE CASES FROM THE 1960S AND 1970S. WE JUST LOOKED AT THE LOST 15 YEARS OF THE PERIOD OF THE 47 YEARS THAT HE LOOKED AT. AND RATHER THAN 202 SHOOTERS OVER THE WHOLE OUTSIDE WORLD OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES OVER 47 YEARS, WE FOUND OVER 3000 IN JUST THE LAST 15 YEARS. SO RATHER THAN USING THE EXACT SAME DEFINITION THAT HE HAD IN THE PAPER, RATHER THAN THE UNITED STATES MAKING UP 31 PERCENT OF THE MASS PUBLIC SHOOTERS, WE FOUND THAT THEY MADE UP ABOUT ONE PERCENT ACTUALLY LESS THAN ONE PERCENT OF THE MASS PUBLIC SHOOTERS. SO WE MAKE ABOUT 4.6 PERCENT OF THE WORLD POPULATION. ONE PERCENT OF THE MASS PUBLIC SHOOTERS. WE ARE WAY BELOW THE WORLD AVERAGE.

(continued below)

[Beetlegeuse]

(continued from above)

THERE ARE LOTS OF COUNTRIES JUST FOR POPULATION IN EUROPE YOU KNOW, FRANCE, FINLAND, NORWAY, SWITZERLAND, RUSSIA. MAJOR COUNTRIES POTS LOTS OF MINOR COUNTRIES THAT HAVE MUCH LOWER RATES. AND YOU CAN SEE YOU KNOW THESE ARE JUST SOME OF THE QUOTES THAT OBAMA WOULD BE MAKING SAYING I SAY THIS EVERY TIME WE'VE GOT ONE OF THESE MASS SHOOTINGS. THIS JUST DOESN'T HAPPEN IN OTHER COUNTRIES. IN A COUNTRY SEVERAL DOZEN. ONE OF THE MINISTRATION WAS ASKED FOR THE SOURCE HE WOULD GO AND CITE THE STUDY WHEN THIS GUY WASN'T GIVING OUT THE DATA. AND I CAN SHOW YOU LOTS OF COMMENTS FROM MEDIA PEOPLE WHO HAD ASKED HIM OVER THE YEARS FOR HIS DATA AND HE REFUSED. HE IS GIVING IT OUT NOW BUT TURNS OUT HE ONLY INCLUDED CASES WHERE ONE SHOOTER WAS INVOLVED. YOU KNOW WITH COMBINER TWO SHOOTERS. EXCEPT FOR THAT, BUT AND ALSO HE'S MISSING LOTS OF EVEN ONE SHOOTER CASES. ANYWAY, WE PUT OUR LIST TOGETHER. IF YOU LOOK AT THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE KILLED, PER 100,000 PEOPLE. THE GUN OWNERSHIP RATE RATHER THAN GETTING THE POSITIVE RELATIONSHIP YOU GET THIS NEGATIVE RELATIONSHIP. COUNTRIES WITH MORE GUNS HAVE FEWER PEOPLE KILLED IN MASS PUBLIC SHOOTINGS. IF YOU LOOK AT THE RATE OF MASS PUBLIC SHOOTINGS, AND THIS IS EVEN REMOVING THIS IS EVA REMOVING THE MOST EXTREME CASES THAT ARE THERE. YOU STILL GET A NEGATIVE RELATIONSHIP WITH COUNTRIES TH MORE GUNS. THERE ARE LOTS OF OTHER MYTHS OUT THERE. I'LL JUST MENTION A COUPLE THAT WE CAN QUICKLY GO THROUGH. ONE IS, HOW MANY GUYS DO AMERICANS OWN? IF YOU LOOK AT PLACES LIKE THE NEW YORK TIMES, THIS FROM A GRAPH IN THE NEW YORK TIMES. THEY WILL ARGUE GUN OWNERSHIP HAS BEEN FALLING OVER TIME. NOW ABOUT 30 PERCENT OF AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS OWN A GUN. AND THE ONE SURVEY THAT THEY RELY ON IS SOMETHING CALLED THE GENERAL SOCIAL SURVEY. I WILL GIVE YOU A STORY. A FEW YEARS AGO I GOT A CALL FROM A PRODUCER AT ABCNEWS. THEY WERE DOING A STORY, A SERIES OF STORIES ABOUT THE RISKS OF GUNS IN THE HOME. AND I WAS TALKING TO THEM FOR ABOUT AN HOUR AND AND A HALF HOURS INTO THE CONVERSATION SHE MADE THE COMMENTS, AT LEAST THIS WON'T BE TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM IN THE FUTURE BECAUSE FEWER AND FEWER HOMES WILL HAVE GUNS. AND I SAID WELL NOT REALLY SURE. I SAID I ASSUME THAT YOU ARE RELYING ON THE GENERAL SOCIAL SURVEY. AND SHE SAID YEAH. I SAID YOU KNOW THAT ABCNEWS, YOU HAVE YOUR OWN SURVEY? AND YOUR OWN SURVEY DOES NOT SHOW THE DROP THAT IT SHOWS AS BASICALLY FLAT OVER TIME AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION? AND SHE DIDN'T BELIEVE ME. AND I SAID I CAN SEND YOU A COPY OF YOUR OWN SURVEY. AND SO I DID THAT. AND A COUPLE OF DAYS LATER, ABCNEWS HAS A SERIES OF STORIES ON THE EVENING NEWS, ON GOOD MORNING AMERICA, ON NIGHTLINE, ON 2020 ABOUT THE STUDY THAT THEY'VE DONE ABOUT THE RISK OF GUNS AT HOME. ALL THE TIME MENTIONING THAT GUN OWNERSHIP IS FALLING IN ONLY 30 PERCENT OF AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS OWN IT. THIS IS ABCNEWS ON RESULTS. IT LOOKS PRETTY FLAT TO ME. COMPARED TO THE ONE THAT THEY END UP USING. BUT THEY DIDN'T EVEN MENTION HAD THEIR OWN SERVER THAT SHOWED VERY DIFFERENT RESULTS. JUST TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA THERE IS A SURVEY, GENERAL SOCIAL SURVEY THAT SHOWS HERE IS THE MOST RECENT SURVEY FROM A LOT OF DIFFERENT SOURCES. ABCNEWS, GENERAL SOCIAL SERVICE, QUINNIPIAC, GALLUP, CBS -- AND BC, WALL STREET JOURNAL, I JUST MENTION A COUPLE OF ISSUES WITH THIS. ONE IS, THESE SURVEYS ARE OFTEN DONE SHORTLY AFTER MASS PUBLIC SHOOTINGS. AND SO THEIR ISSUES THERE ABOUT WHETHER ALL OF THE NEWS THERE MIGHT AFFECT WHETHER PEOPLE SAY THEY OWN A GUN OR NOT. BUT YOU CAN GO AND SEE HER THANK THERE ARE THREE LINES HERE. THE BLUE LINE SHOWS THE PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE IN THE SERVER THAT SAID THEIR HOUSEHOLD OWNED A GUN. THE BURNT ORANGE ARE THOSE THAT REFUSE TO ANSWER THE QUESTION. AND THEN THE GREEN IS A PORTIONING OF BURNT ORANGE AND PROPORTION TO THE PERCENT THAT SAYS THEY OWN A GUN. IF YOU HAVE FIVE PERCENT, THAT REFUSE TO ANSWER AND HALF THE PEOPLE IN THE SURVEY SO THAT THE HOUSEHOLD OWNED A GUN THEN YOU TAKE TWO AND HALF PERCENT AND ADD THAT ONTO THE OTHER JUST TO GIVE YOU A RANGE. AND YOU CAN SEE HERE, THE ONE THAT YOU WILL ALMOST SEE USED IN THE NEWS, GENERAL SOCIAL SURVEY IS THE REAL OUTLIER HERE. YOU LOOK AT THE ONE FROM THE RECENT ONES FROM THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, NBC NEWS, THERE 46, 47 PERCENT OF THE POPULATION THAT SAID HOUSEHOLDS OWN GUNS. IF YOU KIND OF ADJUST BASICALLY YOU'RE PRETTY CLOSE TO HALF OF HOUSEHOLDS SAY THEY OWN A GUN. AND THEIR REASONS FOR BELIEVING THAT THIS EVEN UNDERESTIMATES IT. I'LL JUST GIVE YOU ONE OF MANY REASONS. THAT IS, MARRIED WOMEN ARE MUCH LESS LIKELY TO SAY A GUN IS OWNED IN THE HOME THEN MARRIED MEN ARE. IT COULD BE THAT THE GUY HAS A GUN AND HE'S NOT TELLING THE WIFE ABOUT IT. I SUPPOSE THAT'S A POSSIBILITY. OR IT COULD BE THAT GUYS LIE ABOUT OWNING GUNS WHEN THEY DON'T OWN A GUN. MY GUESS IS THE OPPOSITE MAY BE MORE LIKELY TO BE TRUE. BUT AND OTHER THINGS THAT WOMEN PARTICULARLY AFTER YOU HAVE A MASS PUBLIC SHOOTING, MIGHT BE RETICENT TO GO AND SAY THAT GUN IS IN THE HOME WHERE THEY MAY JUST BE RETICENT TO GO AND TELL PEOPLE THAT YOU KNOW THAT YOU KNOW HOW THEY DEFEND THEIR FAMILIES. BUT THERE ARE GOOD REASONS TO BELIEVE THAT WHEN YOU ADJUST IT YOU ACTUALLY WILL END UP WITH MORE THAN HALF THE HOUSEHOLDS OWNING A GUN. AND SO WHY DO THEY PICK THIS ONE LOW SURVEY NUMBER THAT THEY KEEP ON USING TIME AFTER TIME? AND I THINK THE REASON WHY THEY DO THAT IS THEY WANT TO MAKE GUN OWNERS FEEL SOMEWHAT ISOLATED. MAKE THEM FEEL THAT FEWER AND FEWER PEOPLE ARE WILLING TO GO AND OWN GUNS OVER TIME. I WILL GIVE YOU AN EXAMPLE JUST FOR THE SURVEY. IF YOU LOOK ILLINOIS, YOU HAVE TO HAVE A CARD TO BE ABLE TO GO AND OWN A GUN IN ILLINOIS. IT IS A LICENSE TO OWN IT. THERE'S BEEN A HUGE INCREASE. ALST DOUBLED OVER THE LAST 15 YEARS OR SO. WERE AT THE SAME TIME THE GSS SURVEY FOR ILLINOIS CLAIMS THAT THERE HAS BEEN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT DROP IN GUN OWNERSHIP OVER THAT PERIOD OF TIME. SO YOU HAVE FEWER PEOPLE SAYING THEY OWN A GUN IN THE SURVEY. AT THE SAME TIME YOU'VE HAD A HUGE INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF CARDS SERVED. YOU THINK LOOK AT IS THE NUMBER CONCEALED CARRY PERMITS. 1998 THERE ARE ABOUT 2 MILLION CONCEALED CARRY PERMIT HOLDERS IN THE UNITED STATES. THERE ARE ABOUT 18 MILLION RIGHT NOW THAT HAVE CONCEALED CARRY PERMITS. EVEN THE UNDERESTIMATES THE INCREASE BECAUSE BACK IN 1998 YOU ONLY HAD ONE STATE THAT WAS A CONSTITUTIONAL CARRY STATE WHERE YOU DO NOT HAVE TO HAVE A PERMIT TO CARRY. NOW YOU HAVE 16 STATES THAT ARE CONSTITUTIONAL CARRY. AND SO, PEOPLE IN THE STATES DON'T NEED TO GET A PERMIT TO CARRY AND IN FACT, WHEN THE STATE NO LONGER REQUIRES A PERMIT TO GET A PERMIT TO CARRY OUTSIDE YOUR STATE FOR RECIPROCITY. YOU ACTUALLY SEE THE NUMBER PERMS BASICALLY LEVEL OFF OR EVEN FALL A LITTLE BIT EVEN THOUGH YOU KNOW THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO ARE LEGALLY CARRYING HAS GONE UP. EVEN THAT CHANGE FROM 2 MILLION TO 18 MILLION REALLY UNDERESTIMATES THE GROWTH THAT YOU'VE HAD THERE. IT JUST GIVES YOU AN IDEA THAT GUN OWNERSHIP RATES HAVE BEEN CHANGING A LOT MORE THAN PEOPLE MIGHT THINK. I WILL JUST MENTION ONE OF THE SURVEY QUICKLY. THIS IS ON WHETHER OR NOT YOU THINK TEACHERS SHOULD BE ARMED. AND IF YOU LOOK AT ALL OF THAT, SLIGHTLY MORE ADULTS ARE AGAINST TEACHERS BEING ARMED AND SUPPORTIVE. ABOUT 40 PERCENT OF 43. IF YOU ASK PEOPLE WHO HAVE SCHOOL AGE KIDS, WHETHER TEACHERS SHOULD BE ARMED, THE PEOPLE THAT KIND OF HAVE THE MOST SKIN IN THE GAME SO TO SPEAK, THEIR OWN KIDS ARE THE ONES WHO ARE AT RISK THEY ARE, THEY STRONGLY SUPPORT TEACHERS BEING ABLE TO OWN GUNS. ABOUT 59 PERCENT SUPPORT BEING ABLE TO OWN GUNS. THE OPPOSITION TO TEACHERS HAVING GUNS BASICALLY COMES FROM ADULTS THAT DON'T HAVE KIDS. ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE FREQUENTLY HEAR IS ABOUT THE RISK TO PEOPLE HAVING GUNS, CONCEALED CARRY PERMITS ACTUALLY PROVIDES SOME VERY INTERESTING DATA ON THIS. BECAUSE WHAT YOU FIND IS THAT WE HAVE ALL THESE 18 MILLION PERMIT HOLDERS BUT THEY ARE INCREDIBLY LAW-ABIDING. IF YOU LOOK OF FIREARMS RELATED VIOLATIONS YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT PEOPLE LOSING THEIR CONCEALED CAY PERMIT FOR ANY TYPE OF FIREARMS RELATED VIOLATION AND THOUSANDS OR TENS OF THOUSANDS OF ONE PERCENTAGE POINT. AND POLICE ARE REALLY CONVICTED OF FIREARMS VIOLATIONS. THEY ARE CONVICTED OF FIREARMS VIOLATIONS AND ABOUT LESS THEM 1/20 OF THE GENERAL PREPARATION. BUT PERMIT HOLDERS ARE CONVICTED OF FIREARMS VIOLATIONS AT ABOUT 1/10 THE RATE THAT POLICE OFFICERS ARE. SOOLICE OFFICERS ARE REALLY CONVICTED AND PERMIT HOLDERS ARE EVEN MUCH LESS RARELY CONVICTED. I COULD GO THROUGH THIS NUMBERS. ONE THING YOU WILL FREQUENTLY HEAR ABOUT IS GUNS AND SUICIDE. ONE OF THE CLAIMS IS THAT WHAT MAKES GUNS SO DANGEROUS IN TERMS OF SUICIDE IS THAT THEY ARE VERY SUCCESSFUL IN COMMITTING THE SUICIDES. AND A LOT OF THE RESEARCH THAT IS DONE JUST LOOKS AT FIREARMS SUICIDES, IF IT WERE ME I THINK THE ISSUE IS AT THE TIME GENERALLY TOTAL SUICIDE. IT IS REALLY HARD IF YOU SEE GUN CONTROL LAWS OR ANY CHANGE IN TERMS OF TOTAL SUICIDE. EVEN IF YOU SEE A DROP IN FIREARMS SUICIDES. THERE ARE COUPLE THINGS TO POINT OUT. PEOPLE PICKED THE METHOD OF SUICIDE THAT THEY WANT BASED ON WHETHER THEY WANT TO BE SUCCESSFUL. YOU HAVE A WOMAN WHO MAY TAKE SIX SLEEPING PILLS. PROBABLY NOT ADVISABLE TO TAKE SLEEPING PILLS. BUT YOU'RE UNLIKELY TO BE REALLY SUCCESSFUL IN COMMITTING SUICIDE THERE. AND WHAT WILL OFTEN HAPPEN IF YOU LOOK, THIS HERE, THEY SAY ONLY FIVE PERCENT OF THE PEOPLE LOOK AT THEMSELVES ARE SUCCESSFUL IN COMMITTEE SUICIDE. ONLY SEVEN PERCENT OF POISON AND 97 PERCENT OF FIREARMS USE AND SUICIDE ARE SUCCESSFUL. AND THAT IS THE REASON WHY WE SHOULD GET RID OF FIREARMS. HERE IS A SLIGHTLY BROADER, OF ALL THE TESTED METHODS OF SUICIDE SHOTGUN TO THE HEAD IS VERY SUCCESSFUL. CYANIDE IS ABOUT 98 PERCENT SUCCESSFUL. GUNSHOTS TO THE HEAD ALSO ABOUT 98 PERCENT, EXPLOSIVES ABOUT 97 PERCENT. I DON'T KNOW IF YOU'VE EVER BEEN TO JAPAN. JAPAN FOR MANY YEARS HAD A BIG PROBLEM WITH PEOPLE GOING IN FRONT OF TRAINS. AND YOU GET HIT BY A TRAIN, YOU'RE GONE. AND THAT IS 97 PERCENT SUCCESSFUL. JUMPING FROM A HEIGHT LIKE A BRIDGE OR BUILDING, ALMOST AS SUCCESSFUL. HANGING IS 93 PERCENT SUCCESSFUL RATE. SO THERE ARE LOTS OF WAYS OF COMMITTING SUICIDE WHICH ARE ALSO SIMILAR IN TERMS OF QUOTE - SUCCESS RATES. AND IN TERMS OF COMMITTING SUICIDE, IF THAT IS WHAT YOU WANT TO TRY TO DO. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, THERE ARE SOME DID THAT MOST OF THESE OTHER TYPES OF SUICIDES ARE ACTUALLY LESS PAINFUL THAN SHOOTING YOURSELF. IT IS ONE THING I WANT TO TRY TO GO THROUGH QUICKLY. AND THAT IS JUST THE CLAIM ABOUT AUSTRALIA THIS IS SOMETHING WE HEAR ABOUT ALL THE TIME. THAT IS AUSTRALIA HAD A GUN BUYBACK IN 1996 AND 97. THE CLAIM IS REDUCED HOMICIDE BUYER ABOUT 60 PERCENT. HE HAD A SIMILAR DROP IN TERMS OF FIREARMS SUICIDE. SO WHEN THEY DID THE BUYBACK THEY REDUCED THE NUMBER OF LESSONS GUNS FROM 3.2 MILLION TO ABOUT 2.5 MILLION. GUNS WERE NOT BANNED, PEOPLE WERE ABLE TO GO BY GUNS AGAIN. BY 2010 THE GUN OWNERSHIP RATE IN AUSTRALIA WAS CLEARLY ABOVE WHAT IT WAS BEFORE THE BUYBACK. YOU HAD A DROP IN LESSONS GUNS OVER TIME IN INCREASE. SO YOU SHOULD HAVE IMAGINED IF THIS REALLY HAD THE EFFECT ON CRIME THEY SHOULD HAVE BEEN IMMEDIATE SHARP DROP AND THEN INCREASE OVER TIME. WHAT YOU FIND WHEN YOU LOOK AT THIS, THERE ARE TWO DIFFERENT -- THIS IS FOR FIREARMS SUICIDE AND THIS IS FOR NON-FIREARMS SUICIDE. YOU CAN SEE FOR BOTH FIREARMS SUICIDE AND FIREARM HOMICIDE, THE DEATH RATES WERE FALLING FOR 15 YEARS PRIOR TO THE BUYBACK. THEY CONTINUED TO FALL AFTERWARD BUT AT A SLOWER RATE. LET'S SAY OUR TO TAKE A STRAIGHT LINE. A PERFECTLY STRAIGHT LINE, PAST THE LAW IN THE MIDDLE AND COMPARED TO BEFORE AND AFTER AVERAGES. IF I COULD DEPICT ANY! IT WILL BE -- IF YOU LOOK THE PERFECTLY STRAIGHT LINE AND DID NOT VARIABLE I WOULD SAY THE AVERAGE IS BELOW. THAT IS WHAT EVERYONE REPORTS. BUT IT SEEMS LIKE PRETTY MISLEADING BECAUSE IF I LOOK AT THE LENDERS PERFECTLY STRAIGHT. WHAT YOU LIKE TO DO IS SAY WELL, DOES IT HAVE A SLOWER RATE OR FASTER RATE AFTER THE CHANGE? WAS IT SOME KIND OF DISCONTINUITY THAT OCCURRED THERE? WHAT YOU FIND IS THAT IF YOU LOOK AT EITHER FIREARM SUICIDE OR FIREARM HOMICIDE, IT ACTUALLY FELL MORE SLOWLY AFTER THE BUYBACK THAN IT DID BEFORE. I HAVE FIVE MINUTES? I WILL GO THROUGH ONE OTHER THING. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT THE NEW YORK TIMES PUSHES A LOT. THIS IS FROM NICHOLAS, HE IS A GRAPH THAT LED TO SHOW WHERE CARD DEBTS ARE FALLING OVER TIME. AND THE CLAIM THAT IF WE CAN ONLY REGULATE GUNS LIKE WE REGULATE CARS, WE COULD GO AND SAVE LOTS OF LIVES. AND IT WILL SHOW THAT YOU HAVE SEATBELTS HERE.THE FIRST FEDERAL REGULATIONS WERE NOT TO THE MID-1960S AND TO CONTINUE TO FALL THERE. LET ME JUST SAY IF YOU WERE TO GO BACK TO AN EARLIER PERIOD TO 1920 WHICH WE HAVE DATA. AUTOMOBILE DEATH RATES WERE FALLING DRAMATICALLY. ALL OVER THIS PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE WE HAD FEDERAL REGULATION. COMPANIES COMPETING AGAINST EACH OTHER IN TERMS OF SHATTERPROOF GLASS, COLLAPSIBLE STEERING COLUMNS, SEATBELTS, ALTHOUGH THINGS WERE PUT IN CARS BEFOREHAND. IF YOU ACTUALLY SUING THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT GOT INVOLVED, THE RATE STOP FALLING FOR A FEW YEARS. THEN WHEN THE FIRST REGULATIONS WENT INTO EFFECT BUT AT A SLOWER RATE THAN BEFORE. WHY DID THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT INVOLVEMENT BECAUSE -- AGAIN WHAT PEOPLE ALWAYS DO, THEY ALWAYS SAY WHAT IS THE DEATH RATE AFTER THE LAW VERSE BEFORE? EVERYTHING FALLS OVER TIME. WHY DID IT FALL MORE SLOWLY? THE REASON I FELL MORE SLOWLY AFTER THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT GOT INVOLVED IS BECAUSE WHEN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SAYS HAVE AIRBAGS THEY DON'T JUST SAY HAVE AIRBAGS BUT WHAT THEY DO IS THEY YOU DON'T HAVE AIRBAGS WILL BE DESIGNED IN EXACTLY THIS WAY. THEY WILL BE INSTALLED IN EXACTLY THIS WAY. THEY MICROMANAGE EXACTLY HOW THE COMPANY HAS TO DO IT. LET'S SAY YOUR GENERAL MOTORS AFFORDS AND YOU WANT TO PUT AIRBAGS IN THE CARS. IF YOU PUT THEM IN BEFORE THE GOVERNMENT TELLS YOU HOW YOU'RE SUPPOSED TO DO THAT YOU WILL PUT MAYBE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF INVESTMENT INTO FIGURING OUT HOW YOU WOULD DESIGN IT. THEY WHAT HAPPENS IF A YEAR OR TWO AFTER YOU'VE DONE THIS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT COMES OUT WITH THEIR OWN REGULATIONS AND THEY ARE TELLING YOU THEIR BEDS HAD TO BE DESIGNED DIFFERENTLY, THEY HAVE TO BE INSTALLED DIFFERENTLY, THEY MAY USE DIFFERENT CHEMICALS OR WHATEVER . WHAT DYOU HAVE TO DO? HAVE TO RIP OUT ALL THE INVESTMENT THAT YOU HAVE THERE. AND PUT IN A BUNCH OF NEW MONEY TO GO AND HAVE IT MEET THE EXACT SPECIFICATIONS OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT. WITH THAT HANGING OVER YOUR HEAD, WHAT DOES IT DO TO CAR COMPANIES GOING OUT ON THEIR OWN? TO GO AND TRY TO IMPROVE THE SAFETY OF THEIR CARS. THEY DON'T DO IT. THEY WENT TO THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TELLS THEM HOW TO DO IT AND GUESS WHAT? THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT IS NOT REALLY FAST IN DOING THINGS. I KNOW YOU ALL WILL BE SHOCKED. I KNOW PROBABLY NEVER HAPPEN WITH GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS OR ANYTHING ELSE IN THE PAST. SO ACTUALLY SLOWS DOWN THE RATE OF SAFETY IMPROVEMENT. PEOPLE DON'T SEE THAT BECAUSE THEY'RE ALWAYS COMPARING, THANK YOU, THE BEFORE AND AFTER AVERAGES THAT ARE THERE. BUT YOU KNOW, IF YOU SEE IN TERMS OF THE RATE DECLINE IT WENT DOWN A LOT. THERE ARE A LOT OF OTHER THINGS THAT CAN GO THROUGH HERE AND BUT WHAT I WOULD SUGGEST YOU CAN GO TO OUR WEBSITE CRIME RESEARCH.org. WE GO THROUGH THIS AND MANY OTHER TYPES OF MYTHS AND CRIME. FOR GO TO OUR WEBSITE AFTER ABOUT 30 SECONDS OR SO, A LITTLE POP UP WILL OCCUR AND YOU CAN SUBSCRIBE TO OUR EMAIL LIST. EVERY COUPLE OF WEEKS THE CRIME PREVENTION RESEARCH CENTER WHERE A GROUP OF ACADEMICS AROUND THE COUNTRY TO RESEARCH ON THESE QUESTIONS, WE WILL HAVE THE CURRENT TOPICS THAT ARE THERE. HOW MANY ARE SUBSCRIBED TO OUR EMAIL LIST? A FEW PEOPLE. DO YOU LIKE IT? DO YOU FIND IT USEFUL? OKAY. HE IS SHAKING HIS HEAD YES. THEY BOTH ARE. YOU'LL FIND IT USEFUL. WE HAVE GROUPS OF ACADEMICS FROM HARVARD, UNIVERSITY CHICAGO AND OTHER PLACES DO RESEARCH ON THESE THINGS AND WE TRY TO MAKE SURE THAT PEOPLE ARE EDUCATED ALONG THE LINES I'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT SO FAR. I'LL BE GOING BACK TO OUR BOOTH. IF YOU LIKE TO GO BACK THERE AND TALK MORE AND BE HAPPY TO TALK TO YOU AFTERWARDS. CRIME RESEARCH.ORG. THE WORDS CRIME RESEARCH.org . [APPLAUSE]THANK YOU VERY MUCH . OKAY, THANK YOU VERY MUCH. THAT'S WHAT I WAS SHOWING. [INAUDIBLE CONVERSATIONS]

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