http://dieoff.org
http://dieoff.org/page174.htm
I sure am glad that I live in sweden where we wont have any of these below problems(except offcourse oil shortage) for a long time to come.
The planet's numerous environmental problems emphasize the urgent need to evaluate the available environmental resources and how they relate to the requirements of a rapidly growing human population (Hardin, 1993; Cohen, 1995). In this article we assess the carrying capacity of the Earth's natural resources, and suggest that humans should voluntarily limit their population growth, rather than letting natural forces control their numbers for them. (Pimentel et al., 1994a; Bartlett, 1997-98). In addition, we suggest appropriate policies and technologies that would improve the standard of living and quality of life worldwide.
Thus far, the relative affluence enjoyed by most Americans has been possible because of an abundant supply of fertile cropland, water, and fossil energy. As the U.S. population continues to expand, however, resource shortages similar to those now being experienced by China and other developing nations will become more common (Tables 1 and 2). Accelerated declines in the U.S. standard of living are likely if the U.S. population increases as projected during the next 70 years, from 270 million in 1998 to 540 million (Grant, 1996; Pimentel and Pimentel, 1996).
Escalating land degradation threatens most crop and pasture land throughout the world (Lal and Pierce, 1991; Pimentel et al, 1995). The major types of degradation include water and wind erosion, and the salinization and water-logging of irrigated soils (Kendall and Pimentel, 1994). Worldwide, more than 10 million hectares of productive arable land are severely degraded and abandoned each year (Houghton, 1994; Pimentel et al., 1995). Moreover, an additional 5 million hectares of new land must be put into production each year to feed the nearly 84 million humans annually added to the world population. Most of the 15 million hectares needed yearly to replace lost land is coming from the world's forests (Houghton, 1994; WRI, 1996). The urgent need for more agricultural land accounts for more than 60% of the deforestation now occurring worldwide (Myers, 1990).The present and future availability of adequate supplies of freshwater for human and agricultural needs is already critical in many regions, like the Middle East (Postel, 1997). Rapid population growth and increased total water consumption are rapidly depleting the availability of water. Between 1960 and 1997, the per capita availability of freshwater worldwide declined by about 60% (Hinrichsen, 1998). Another 50% decrease in per capita water supply is projected by the year 2025 (Hinrichsen, 1998).Overall, approximately 95% of the water in developing countries is polluted (WHO, 1992). There are, however, serious problems in the United States as well. EPA (1994) reports indicate that 37% of U.S. lakes are unfit for swimming due to runoff pollutants and septic discharge.Nuclear fission currently supplies approximately 20% of the electric energy consumed in the United States without producing carbon dioxide, a major greenhouse gas that significantly contributes to global warming. Rasmussen (1978) posed an interesting question on this subject: "How does one compare the risk of [nuclear] proliferation, the possible but unlikely meltdown of a plutonium-containing core, and the long-term risks of [nuclear] waste disposal to the risks of climate modification by CO2 emission, health effects of SO2 and NOx and the impact of mining and transport of large amounts of coal? How does one estimate the increased risks of global conflict if failure to exploit the nuclear option leads to increased pressures on world oil supplies?"Our suggested 2 billion population carrying capacity for the Earth is based on a European standard of living for everyone and sustainable use of natural resources. For land resources, we suggest 0.5 ha of cropland per capita with an intense agricultural production system (~8 million kcal/ha) and diverse plant and animal diet for the people. The 0.5 ha of cropland per capita is the level that existed in 1960. Since that time nearly one-third of the world's arable land has been lost due to urbanization, highways, soil erosion, salinization, and water-logging of the soil (WRI, 1994; Pimentel et al., 1998a). In addition, approximately 1.5 ha of land would be required per capita for a renewable energy system (discussed earlier, p. 15). At the same time, the goal would be approximately 1 ha each for forest and pasture production per capita. Of course, it would also be essential to stop all current land degradation associated with soil erosion and other factors (Pimentel et al., 1995). Technologies are currently available for soil conservation in agricultural and forest production; they only need to be implemented (Troeh and Thompson, 1993).CONCLUSION
Clearly, human numbers can not continue to increase indefinitely. Natural resources are already severely limited, and there is emerging evidence that natural forces already starting to control human population numbers through malnutrition and other severe diseases. More than 3 billion people worldwide are already malnourished, and 3 billion are living in poverty; grain production per capita started declining in 1984 and continues to decline; irrigation per capita declined starting in 1978 and continues; arable land per capita declined starting in 1948 and continues; fish production per capita started declining in 1980 and continues; fertilizer supplies essential for food production started declining in 1989 and continues to do so; loss of food to pests has not decreased below 50% since 1990; and pollution of water, air, and land has increased, resulting in a rapid increase in the number of humans suffering from serious, pollution-related diseases (Pimentel et al., 1998a).
Fifty-eight academies of science, including the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, point out that "Humanity is approaching a crisis point with respect to the interlocking issues" of population, natural resources, and sustainability (NAS, 1994, p. 13). The report points out that science and technology have a limited ability to meet the basic needs of a rapidly growing human population with rapidly increasing per capita demands. Unfortunately, most individuals and government leaders appear unaware, unwilling, or unable to deal with the growing imbalances between human population numbers and the energy and environmental resources that support all life. The interdependence among the availability of life-supporting resources, individual standard of living, the quality of the environment, environmental resource management, and population density are neither acknowledged nor understood. Although we humans have demonstrated effective environmental conservation in certain cases (e.g., water), overall we have a disappointing record in protecting essential resources from over-exploitation in the face of rapidly growing populations (Pimentel and Pimentel, 1996).
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Originally Posted by johan
