Iran's secret plan for summer offensive to force US out of Iraq

[Logan13]

Iran's secret plan for summer offensive to force US out of Iraqhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/frontpage/...085195,00.html
05/22/07
Iran is secretly forging ties with al-Qaida elements and Sunni Arab militias in Iraq in preparation for a summer showdown with coalition forces intended to tip a wavering US Congress into voting for full military withdrawal, US officials say.
"Iran is fighting a proxy war in Iraq and it's a very dangerous course for them to be following. They are already committing daily acts of war against US and British forces," a senior US official in Baghdad warned. "They [Iran] are behind a lot of high-profile attacks meant to undermine US will and British will, such as the rocket attacks on Basra palace and the Green Zone [in Baghdad]. The attacks are directed by the Revolutionary Guard who are connected right to the top [of the Iranian government]."

The official said US commanders were bracing for a nationwide, Iranian-orchestrated summer offensive, linking al-Qaida and Sunni insurgents to Tehran's Shia militia allies, that Iran hoped would trigger a political mutiny in Washington and a US retreat. "We expect that al-Qaida and Iran will both attempt to increase the propaganda and increase the violence prior to Petraeus's report in September [when the US commander General David Petraeus will report to Congress on President George Bush's controversial, six-month security "surge" of 30,000 troop reinforcements]," the official said.
"Certainly it [the violence] is going to pick up from their side. There is significant latent capability in Iraq, especially Iranian-sponsored capability. They can turn it up whenever they want. You can see that from the pre-positioning that's been going on and the huge stockpiles of Iranian weapons that we've turned up in the last couple of months. The relationships between Iran and groups like al-Qaida are very fluid," the official said.

"It often comes down to individuals, and people constantly move around. For instance, the Sunni Arab so-called resistance groups use Salafi jihadist ideology for their own purposes. But the whole Iran- al-Qaida linkup is very sinister."

Iran has maintained close links to Iraq's Shia political parties and militias but has previously eschewed collaboration with al-Qaida and Sunni insurgents.

US officials now say they have firm evidence that Tehran has switched tack as it senses a chance of victory in Iraq. In a parallel development, they say they also have proof that Iran has reversed its previous policy in Afghanistan and is now supporting and supplying the Taliban's campaign against US, British and other Nato forces.

Tehran's strategy to discredit the US surge and foment a decisive congressional revolt against Mr Bush is national in scope and not confined to the Shia south, its traditional sphere of influence, the senior official in Baghdad said. It included stepped-up coordination with Shia militias such as Moqtada al-Sadr's Jaish al-Mahdi as well as Syrian-backed Sunni Arab groups and al-Qaida in ****potamia, he added. Iran was also expanding contacts across the board with paramilitary forces and political groups, including Kurdish parties such as the PUK, a US ally.

"Their strategy takes into account all these various parties. Iran is playing all these different factions to maximise its future control and maximise US and British difficulties. Their co-conspirator is Syria which is allowing the takfirists [fundamentalist Salafi jihadis] to come across the border," the official said.

Any US decision to retaliate against Iran on its own territory could be taken only at the highest political level in Washington, the official said. But he indicated that American patience was wearing thin.

Warning that the US was "absolutely determined" to hit back hard wherever it was challenged by Iranian proxies or agents inside Iraq, he cited the case of five alleged members of the Revolutionary Guard's al-Quds force detained in Irbil in January. Despite strenuous protests from Tehran, which claims the men are diplomats, they have still not been released.

"Tehran is behaving like a racecourse gambler. They're betting on all the horses in the race, even on people they fundamentally don't trust," a senior administration official in Washington said. "They don't know what the outcome will be in Iraq. So they're hedging their bets."

The administration official also claimed that notwithstanding recent US and British overtures, Syria was still collaborating closely with Iran's strategy in Iraq.

"80% to 90%" of the foreign jihadis entering Iraq were doing so from Syrian territory, he said.

Despite recent diplomatic contacts, and an agreement to hold bilateral talks at ambassadorial level in Baghdad next week, US officials say there has been no let-up in hostile Iranian activities, including continuing support for violence, weapons smuggling and training.

"Iran is perpetuating the cycle of sectarian violence through support for extra-judicial killing and murder cells. They bring Iraqi militia members and insurgent groups into Iran for training and then help infiltrate them back into the country. We have plenty of evidence from a variety of sources. There's no argument about that. That's just a fact," the senior official in Baghdad said.

In trying to force an American retreat, Iran's hardline leadership also hoped to bring about a humiliating political and diplomatic defeat for the US that would reduce Washington's regional influence while increasing Tehran's own.

But if Iran succeeded in "prematurely" driving US and British forces out of Iraq, the likely result would be a "colossal humanitarian disaster" and possible regional war drawing in the Sunni Arab Gulf states, Syria and Turkey, he said.

Despite such concerns, or because of them, the US welcomed the chance to talk to Iran, the senior administration official said. "Our agenda starts with force protection in Iraq," he said. But there were many other Iraq-related issues to be discussed. Recent pressure had shown that Iran's behaviour could be modified, the official claimed: "Last winter they were literally getting away with murder."

But tougher action by security forces in Iraq against Iranian agents and networks, the dispatch of an additional aircraft carrier group to the Gulf and UN security council resolutions imposing sanctions had given Tehran pause, he said.

Washington analysts and commentators predict that Gen Petraeus's report to the White House and Congress in early September will be a pivotal moment in the history of the four-and-a-half-year war - and a decision to begin a troop drawdown or continue with the surge policy will hinge on the outcome. Most Democrats and many Republicans in Congress believe Iraq is in the grip of a civil war and that there is little that a continuing military presence can achieve. "Political will has already failed. It's over," a former Bush administration official said.

A senior adviser to Gen Petraeus reported this month that the surge had reduced violence, especially sectarian killings, in the Baghdad area and Sunni-dominated Anbar province. But the adviser admitted that much of the trouble had merely moved elsewhere, "resulting in spikes of activity in Diyala [to the north] and some areas to the south of the capital". "Overall violence is at about the same level [as when the surge began in February]."

Iranian officials flatly deny US and British allegations of involvement in internal violence in Iraq or in attacks on coalition forces. Interviewed in Tehran recently, Mohammad Reza Bagheri, ***uty foreign minister for Arab affairs with primary responsibility for Iran's policy in Iraq, said: "We believe it would be to the benefit of both the occupiers and the Iraqi people that they [the coalition forces] withdraw immediately."

[singern]

Its not a secret anymore, the question is: What will the world do about it?

[biglouie250]

Its not a secret anymore, the question is: What will the world do about it?

hopefully secure the borders and ramp up racial profiling because we are gonna have a whole lotta crazy asswipes headed our way in the next 50 years. makes me rethink wanting to work in manhattan.

[mcpeepants]

this story feels like bull to me. Why would Iran work with al qaeida which considers the shia heretic and is busy killing and butchering Iraqi shia everyday or ally with the Taliban which was hostile to Iran and they nearly went to war with? I'm not following the enemy of my enemy logic here. The current government of Afghanistan is much friendlier to Iran than the Taliban was and Iran has very good terms with the current shia dominated Iraqi government. When the US eventually leaves both governments will not be hostile to Iran as Saddam and the Taliban were. Supporting sunni extremist like al qaeida and the Taliban makes no sense for shia Iran.

[notanormalgent]

Where did the US get this intel from? A bar napkin in Minnesota?

[spywizard]

Where did the US get this intel from? A bar napkin in Minnesota?

hey.............. i'm in minnesota.. we know stuff..

[RamyGras]

hopefully secure the borders and ramp up racial profiling because we are gonna have a whole lotta crazy asswipes headed our way in the next 50 years. makes me rethink wanting to work in manhattan.

I still find it funny that with 17,000 plus murders in this country (USA) every year, we're still looking for the "freedom-hating" Arabs. Look around people. Innocent civilians are getting killed every day. You're looking for terrorists, and the FACT is that you have a much better chance of getting killed by a non-Muslim American than by a Muslim. Especially if you're living in Manhattan.

On a side note, I'm watching Glenn Beck right now. This guy is something else. He claims to have inside info on a nuclear bomb set to hit the U.S. He says that it's a matter of "when" not "if". He promises to give us the full details tomorrow night 8pm/7pm Ct. You don't wanna miss this one.

[***xxx***]

US officials now say they have firm evidence that Tehran has switched tack as it senses a chance of victory in Iraq. In a parallel development, they say they also have proof that Iran has reversed its previous policy in Afghanistan and is now supporting and supplying the Taliban's campaign against US, British and other Nato forces.

after all those WMD they found in Iraq it shouldn t be a problem to convince the world public

[biglouie250]

I still find it funny that with 17,000 plus murders in this country (USA) every year, we're still looking for the "freedom-hating" Arabs. Look around people. Innocent civilians are getting killed every day. You're looking for terrorists, and the FACT is that you have a much better chance of getting killed by a non-Muslim American than by a Muslim. Especially if you're living in Manhattan.

On a side note, I'm watching Glenn Beck right now. This guy is something else. He claims to have inside info on a nuclear bomb set to hit the U.S. He says that it's a matter of "when" not "if". He promises to give us the full details tomorrow night 8pm/7pm Ct. You don't wanna miss this one.

loaded with mis info. Manhattan is the safest big city in the country PERIOD. its as simple as that. (Thanks Rudy!!!) While other big cities have increasing murder rates manhattan murder rates continue to fall to astronomical lows. lets compare and contrast....new york city has a lower murder rate then the rest of the country.....newark nj has 4x the national average. And overall murder rates across the country are down since the mid 80's when they were around 20k a year. 17,000 out of 250,000,000.....ill take those odds any day. thats less then 1/100th of 1%!! better chance of hitting the lotto then getting murdered in this country.

[biglouie250]

some more numbers ramy since murder in the US is such a problem. 2.4 million people died last year. 17,000 represents less the 1% of all deaths in the US. Septicemia caused double the amount of deaths that murder did. How many people have heard of Septicemia?? About 62,000 died of the flu! Lets declare a war on the flu...not crime.

[singern]

this story feels like bull to me. Why would Iran work with al qaeida which considers the shia heretic .

"The enemy of my enemy is my friend".

This is not a new concept, Iran has been in bed with Syria for many years.
Iran will make any and all partnerships in order to fulfil its regional objectives of a single Islamic nation covering the entire middle east.

[mcpeepants]

"The enemy of my enemy is my friend".

This is not a new concept, Iran has been in bed with Syria for many years.
Iran will make any and all partnerships in order to fulfil its regional objectives of a single Islamic nation covering the entire middle east.

Iran and Syria are not enemies. Syria was the only arab country, maybe also Libya, to side with Iran during the Iran-Iraq War. Every country in the world would want the world to fit its objectives, why so critical of Iran's?

[singern]

Iran and Syria are not enemies. Syria was the only arab country, maybe also Libya, to side with Iran during the Iran-Iraq War. Every country in the world would want the world to fit its objectives, why so critical of Iran's?

Your statement that AlQaeda and Iran are on different pages is why I referenced Iran and syria being examples of Sunni and Shia cooperation.
And I am critical of Iran objectives because they threaten the sovereignty, security, and freedom of every nation in the middle east.

[mcpeepants]

Your statement that AlQaeda and Iran are on different pages is why I referenced Iran and syria being examples of Sunni and Shia cooperation.
And I am critical of Iran objectives because they threaten the sovereignty, security, and freedom of every nation in the middle east.

Other countries do the same to Iran. The US and Israel openly talk about bombings Iran's nuclear facilities and the US says "all options are on the table", or code word for using nukes for taking these sites out. This is a very direct threat to Iran's sovereignty and security. Plus the US and Israel can back up there threat since we all saw US attack Iraq and Afghanistan and Israel took out Osirak in Iraq. There was also a recent post about the US and Saudi supporting convert action in Iran and the fact the US is protecting a kurdish terrorist inside Iran (the groups is considered a terrorist group by the US State ***artment).

Syria is a sunni country but the rulers are of Syria are a different sect of Islam. Al Qaeda is killing shia in Iraq and would do the same in Iran if it could so allying with them doesn't make sense. The new Iraqi government will be shia dominated when we leave and all Iran has do due is sit back because they no longer have to worry about Saddam and the bathists.

[Superhuman]

I still find it funny that with 17,000 plus murders in this country (USA) every year, we're still looking for the "freedom-hating" Arabs. Look around people. Innocent civilians are getting killed every day. You're looking for terrorists, and the FACT is that you have a much better chance of getting killed by a non-Muslim American than by a Muslim. Especially if you're living in Manhattan.

On a side note, I'm watching Glenn Beck right now. This guy is something else. He claims to have inside info on a nuclear bomb set to hit the U.S. He says that it's a matter of "when" not "if". He promises to give us the full details tomorrow night 8pm/7pm Ct. You don't wanna miss this one.

okay, so since people get killed everyday in car accidents and homicides we should just not worry about terrorism? whatever

the next terrorist attack could be much worse, maybe 1 million people will die?? would that be enough to make a difference to you?

[singern]

Other countries do the same to Iran. The US and Israel openly talk about bombings Iran's nuclear facilities and the US says "all options are on the table", Because Iran is threatening to wipe Israel off the earth with Nukes or code word for using nukes for taking these sites out. This is a very direct threat to Iran's sovereignty and security. Plus the US and Israel can back up there threat since we all saw US attack Iraq and Afghanistan and Israel took out Osirak in Iraq because Iraq was threatening Israel, as we saw in the first gulf was, Israel had no part in it but was attacked with dayly barages of scuds. There was also a recent post about the US and Saudi supporting convert action in Iran and the fact the US is protecting a kurdish terrorist inside Iran (the groups is considered a terrorist group by the US State ***artment).

.

Again this is a case of action and reaction. If not for The very real Iranian threat we would not be where we are today.

[BgMc31]

okay, so since people get killed everyday in car accidents and homicides we should just not worry about terrorism? whatever

the next terrorist attack could be much worse, maybe 1 million people will die?? would that be enough to make a difference to you?

Fearmongering at it's best!!!!

[Superhuman]

Fearmongering at it's best!!!!

yup, that's it just fearmongering... nobody hates us and wants us all to die you're absolutely right


I CAN'T WAIT TO GO TO IRAQ I AM READY TO LEAVE LIKE T.I..... ASAP!

[BgMc31]

yup, that's it just fearmongering... nobody hates us and wants us all to die you're absolutely right


I CAN'T WAIT TO GO TO IRAQ I AM READY TO LEAVE LIKE T.I..... ASAP!

Although we don't agree on policy, obviously, if you are in the military going off to Iraq, mad props to you, brotha! Thanks, good luck, and come home safely!

[RamyGras]

loaded with mis info. Manhattan is the safest big city in the country PERIOD. its as simple as that. (Thanks Rudy!!!) While other big cities have increasing murder rates manhattan murder rates continue to fall to astronomical lows. lets compare and contrast....new york city has a lower murder rate then the rest of the country.....newark nj has 4x the national average. And overall murder rates across the country are down since the mid 80's when they were around 20k a year. 17,000 out of 250,000,000.....ill take those odds any day. thats less then 1/100th of 1%!! better chance of hitting the lotto then getting murdered in this country.

Loaded with misinfo? Seems like the Manhattan part was something I should've put more thought into, but the rest of the info seem right on target! And whether you're okay with 17,000 murders or not, makes no difference. The point is that there ARE 17,000 murders per year in this country, and how many of these killers fit your Arab stereotype?

[mcpeepants]

Again this is a case of action and reaction. If not for The very real Iranian threat we would not be where we are today.

Israel bombed Osirak in Iraq. did you expect no retaliation from Iraq for doing that? Well Israel is threatening Iran likewise, along with US, and I believe US and Israeli threats more than Iran because both countries have and will back up there threats.

[RamyGras]

some more numbers ramy since murder in the US is such a problem. 2.4 million people died last year. 17,000 represents less the 1% of all deaths in the US. Septicemia caused double the amount of deaths that murder did. How many people have heard of Septicemia?? About 62,000 died of the flu! Lets declare a war on the flu...not crime.

Still at it, huh? Although I never said the 17,000 kills is a problem in the previous post, I do believe it is. Again, however, that was not my point. My point was that we've been looking for these sleeper cells since 2001, while close to 100,000 people have been murdered in this country since! If you find this number acceptable, well, that's your problem.

[RamyGras]

okay, so since people get killed everyday in car accidents and homicides we should just not worry about terrorism? whatever

the next terrorist attack could be much worse, maybe 1 million people will die?? would that be enough to make a difference to you?

I didn't realize I was being misinterpreted. I don't think we need to stop defending ourselves in any way. I could've easily have lost a loved one or my own life on 9/11. I understand this. And it would be a spit in the face to any person that DID lose a loved one on that day, if I said that we need to stop fighting terrorists. The fact is, I don't feel this way at all. My point was, simply, we need to watch our backs at all times. Because, and this is a fact, you have a better chance of being killed by a non-Muslim or non-Arab, than by a Muslim or by an Arab. A much bigger chance.

[Superhuman]

I didn't realize I was being misinterpreted. I don't think we need to stop defending ourselves in any way. I could've easily have lost a loved one or my own life on 9/11. I understand this. And it would be a spit in the face to any person that DID lose a loved one on that day, if I said that we need to stop fighting terrorists. The fact is, I don't feel this way at all. My point was, simply, we need to watch our backs at all times. Because, and this is a fact, you have a better chance of being killed by a non-Muslim or non-Arab, than by a Muslim or by an Arab. A much bigger chance.

yeah I get your point, but either way it IS a very real threat. The threat of getting mugged or murdered is real, but that's what we have Police for... right now we still don't have an efficient way of dealing with foreign threats within our borders and that's what we need to figure out.


IMO there will always be terrorism when we have enemies, so the only way to stop this is to find the route cause of this hatred and deal with THAT. It's obviousy not religious ideals, otherwise the Muslim extremists would be targeting Tokyo for all the debauchery there... have you seen Japanese porn???!!!??

[Superhuman]

Although we don't agree on policy, obviously, if you are in the military going off to Iraq, mad props to you, brotha! Thanks, good luck, and come home safely!

I appreciate that BgMc, too bad I have all this training to go through first (about 18 months), but it is pretty much guaranteed that I will be shipped out to the desert and for multiple reasons I really want to go - aside from my stagnant life in this boring small town! lol

[DNoMac]

I appreciate that BgMc, too bad I have all this training to go through first (about 18 months), but it is pretty much guaranteed that I will be shipped out to the desert and for multiple reasons I really want to go - aside from my stagnant life in this boring small town! lol

It gets old really fast.

[Carlos_E]

how many of these killers fit your Arab stereotype?

It doesn't matter. He has shown his prejudice in other threads.

[eliteforce]

Getting back to the topic: This notion that "Iran is planning an attack" is a right-wing plot to find an excuse to attack iran, or US fear that a 'tet' type of offensive is in the works by insurgents and maybe this vailed threat will convince Iran to curtail support for (any) group that is resisting the occupation. Iran supplies arms to groups attacking US lead forces in Iraq..but that doesn't mean they are directly resposible for campaigns that the insurgents use..the soviet union did not launch the tet-offensive, they just supplied arms to the other side.

[Logan13]

It doesn't matter. He has shown his prejudice in other threads.

Let's no be as obtuse as Rosie O'donnel is. You both know that big louie is descibing jihadists, not arabs in general. If you think that jihadists are just "mothers and fathers" than you are friggin nuts. You have Singer banned for declaring jihadists as sub species(which they are from the standpoint of humanity), now you are labeling Big Louie. While you are at it, why not ban those in the Charles Manson thread for discussing what a piece of shit he is as well. It's not fair to label good 'ole Charlie, right? All this shit goes on, and yet people, including yourself, are allowed to throw the terms "racist" and "bigot" around like it's going out of style? Take away Rosie's admin status, knock the "victim" chips off your shoulders and let's get back to discussing topics like adults, adults who are all treated equally. Those who wish not to be judged seem to be the ones who are first to judge others........

[Carlos_E]

Let's no be as obtuse as Rosie O'donnel is. You both know that big louie is descibing jihadists, not arabs in general. If you think that jihadists are just "mothers and fathers" than you are friggin nuts. You have Singer banned for declaring jihadists as sub species(which they are from the standpoint of humanity), now you are labeling Big Louie. While you are at it, why not ban those in the Charles Manson thread for discussing what a piece of shit he is as well. It's not fair to label good 'ole Charlie, right? All this shit goes on, and yet people, including yourself, are allowed to throw the terms "racist" and "bigot" around like it's going out of style? Take away Rosie's admin status, knock the "victim" chips off your shoulders and let's get back to discussing topics like adults, adults who are all treated equally. Those who wish not to be judged seem to be the ones who are first to judge others........

I can't suspend or ban shit. Point your anger at someone else. If people report posts and an admin views it, go bitch at them not at me. One thing I can do.

Closed!

Happy now?