we should leave oil before it leaves us IEA

[Kärnfysikern]

"The Sirens Shrill"

The International Energy Agency (IEA) gives alarm: The world could run out of oil faster than expected - the danger of a supply shortage is rising

Hunger for energy vs. energy shortage: While the demand for oil is on the rise, the production is decreasing - shortages, escalating prices and inflation are looming. When talking to energy politician Astrid Schneider, Faith Biro, chief economist of the IEA demands a change in policy from the member countries. His motto: leave oil before it leaves us.

Astrid Schneider:
Mr. Birol, in your "World Energy Outlook" which was published in November 2007 the IEA has warned for the first time that there could be a slump in oil production and escalting prices in the time from now to 2015. The reason you give is that there has been to little investment in oil production.

Fatih Birol:
Indeed. There are three reasons why that is so. The first one is the increasing demand, mostly from China, India and the Middle Eastern countries themselves. These countries are the main reason for the increasing oil consumption. Even if there should be a recession in the USA, this would not slow those countries down much, because India and China have a strong internal economic growth, while high oil prices will help the economy in the Middle East. The demand for oil will therefore remain high.

Schneider:
The second reason ...?

Birol: ... is, that we see a sharp decline in production from the existing oil fields, especially in the North Sea, the USA and many non-OPEC countries. Even here money should be invested, to slow down that decline. The third reason why we expect a risk for overall production is, that we looked at all oil exploration projects around the world: 230 alltogether, in Saudi-Arabia, Venezuela, the North-Sea, everywhere. Even if all those projects which are already funded will be implemented, the overall capacity they can bring for new oil production is too little.

Schneider:
How much is missing?

Birol:
Exactly 12.5 million barrel a day are still missing, about 15 % of the global oil demand (the current global oil consumption is 84 million barrel a day, note from the editor). This gap means that we could face a supply shortage and very high prices during the next years.

Schneider:
Is there still a way to avoid this?

Birol:
There are only three ways out of this dilemma: First of all we have to increase enery-efficiency drastically, we have to build more economical cars, trucks and airplanes, to slow down the incline in oil consumption. Secondly we have to use more alterative fuels in the traffic sector. If you take a look at how little governments are doing to help higher efficiency, though, I have little hope that there will be such a change of policy. The third thing is that we need many more oil production projects, especially in the key countries in the OPEC.

Schneider:
You write that 5.4 trillion dollar have to be invested to meet the global oil demand. In which countries should this money be invested?

Birol:
In the Middle Eastern countries with a large oil supply - but I am not sure
that those countries and their oil corporations will invest as much as would be necessary. They might think that it is not in their own interest to raise the production that much, to keep the oil prices up. A further part of the investments has to go to the OPEC countries, to the USA and to the North-Sea, to prevent the decline of the oil production there.

Schneider:
In the WEO 2007 it is mentioned that the rapid decline of oil production will be between 3.7 and 4.2 percent per year. Is that right?

Birol:
Exactly-

Schneider:
This decline is even steeper than the one predicted by the Energy Watch Group!

Birol:
I can already tell you that in our "World Energy Outlook 2008" which will be published in November we will deal in depth with the prospects of the oil and gas production. We will take a look at the 350 most important oil and gas fields and explore how much production rates are sinking and what that means.

Schneider:
What do you mean by that?

Birol:
As far as I know this will be the first profound public study in which we verify and revise our knowledge about how much oil and gas is going to the markets. Many people will come to new conclusions about this.

Schneider:
You are not alone with your warnings about supply shortages - at the world economy summit in Davos Jeroen von der Veer, the Shell CEO, admitted for the first time that conventional oil and gas will not suffice to cover world demand from the year 2015 onwards. Will this not lead to a further decline in production?

Schneider:
If I undesterand you correctly, you say that the demand for oil could rise 3 % globally every year, while we have to expect a decrease of 4 % in oil production in the time from now until 2015. That would be 7 % each year which are missing.

Birol:
No, but I don't think that prices will go up that rapidly. We can see a gradual incline and that will give the people some time to adapt. But on the long run it has to be clear: if oil will be gone by 2030, or in 2040 or 2050 does not change much.

Schneider:
You really say that?

Birol:
Yes, one day it will definitely end. And I think we should leave oil before it leaves us. That should be our motto. So we should prepare for that day - through research and development on alternatives to oil, on which living standards we want to keep and what alternative ways we can find.

More at this link http://gumwars.newsvine.com/_news/20...upply-shortage

[Strategus]

Serious post.

A couple of years ago (summer 2006), I bought a high-mpg auto and got rid of a 25-mpg car.

Now, I'm considering the next step of moving someplace where things are accessible by foot or bicyclcle.

[Kärnfysikern]

Sounds like a good idea, I havent even bothered to get a drivers lisence yet because I dont se myself getting a car for many years. Public transport here in sweden in the bigger cities is so good anyway that there is no need for a car.

Eventually when/if I get a car I hope reasonably good pure electric cars has hit the market.

[kfrost06]

I am on the fence about electric cars, most electricity is generated from coal power plants and therefore far more toxic to the environment then gas burning cars, most people don't realize that. Unless we have better sources of electricity(e.g. hydro, solar, and wind which just doesn't seem practical) electric cars don't make sense to me.

[Kärnfysikern]

I am on the fence about electric cars, most electricity is generated from coal power plants and therefore far more toxic to the environment then gas burning cars, most people don't realize that. Unless we have better sources of electricity(e.g. hydro, solar, and wind which just doesn't seem practical) electric cars don't make sense to me.

Your right it totaly depends on what the major source of electricity is in the country. I love electric cars because swedens electricity is 50% nuclear and 50% hydro.

But your right that a modern car releases less polutants than a car charged by coal electricity, atleast old coal power plants. Im not sure about the new coal gasification plants though they are pretty clean.

The biggest advantage is that it helps against peak oil and increase energy independence. Better to pay the local coal power plant than the terrorist sponsoring saudi billionairs.

[SMCengineer]

My girlfriend and I are trying to move to the city soon. Hopefully I'll be able to get rid of my car and just bike or use public transportation. I'm really starting to hate everything about cars.

[gixxerboy1]

My girlfriend and I are trying to move to the city soon. Hopefully I'll be able to get rid of my car and just bike or use public transportation. I'm really starting to hate everything about cars.

i miss ny. The subway is fun. Except when your metro card runs out

[SMCengineer]

i miss ny. The subway is fun. Except when your metro card runs out

The subway is way better than driving imo. You never have to worry about who's gonna drive when you go out and it's way cheaper too.