Brain Twister: Seventh Son of a Seventh Son

[Times Roman]

Alright mates. Time to put your thinking caps on and burn some sawdust.

Everyone familar with the metaphysical concept of the powers bestowed upon a seventh son of a seventh son?

http://search.yahoo.com/r/_ylt=A0oGd...3%26Itemid=668

http://www.wampumchronicles.com/seventhson.html

but how often does this occur? the seventh son of a seventh son? it's fairly rare, but how rare?

So I ask you....

...."how common an occurance is this? Given a population of say, ten million, how many would we find? A seventh son of a seventh son?"

Enjoy!

[ReX357]

I have to ask, does a seventh son means the seventh child has to be a boy or could you have a family of let's say 12, and the 12th child is a boy and is the 7th boy in the family?

[ReX357]

And what about places like China with one child policies? Your answer would most likely be 0 in that part of the world. Too many variables. I started looking into it and you can't even find a figure for families with 7 children or more.

[gearbox]

The cure for tren insomnia

[Times Roman]

six other sons preceed you. girls inbetweeen are OK

ok smartee....

....."except for" China. Places where there are no restrictions on birth rate.

[JDawg1536]

Alright mates. Time to put your thinking caps on and burn some sawdust.

Everyone familar with the metaphysical concept of the powers bestowed upon a seventh son of a seventh son?

http://search.yahoo.com/r/_ylt=A0oGd...3%26Itemid=668

http://www.wampumchronicles.com/seventhson.html

but how often does this occur? the seventh son of a seventh son? it's fairly rare, but how rare?

So I ask you....

...."how common an occurance is this? Given a population of say, ten million, how many would we find? A seventh son of a seventh son?"

Enjoy!

According to Wikipedia - "The seventh son must come from an unbroken line with no female children born between"

[Times Roman]

According to Wikipedia - "The seventh son must come from an unbroken line with no female children born between"

ok smartee #2....

....no girls in between!




So how rare is this?

In a normal society, with no restrictions on birth rate, how often does this occur?

1 in a million?

1 in 100,000?

what do you think?

[Shol'va]

I don't know TR that is like asking to solve the riddle of Farmer John
Farmer John has 3 cows Bessie, Essie, and Elsie
Farmer John is going on a cruise
Now if it takes a bale and a half of hay to produce a gallon of milk
how many years will farmer John get for Beastiality?
And what does X equal?

[ReX357]

ok smartee #2....

....no girls in between!




So how rare is this?

In a normal society, with no restrictions on birth rate, how often does this occur?

1 in a million?

1 in 100,000?

what do you think?

It's in the trillions. The male to female ratio is 1:1 with males having a slight bit more at 50.25%. Just the chances of popping 7 boys in the row are probably 1 in trillions. Now this same chance has to happen twice in a row with the 1 in billions child of the first generation. Now add to that the number of families who even go past 3 children. I don't know much about math but it's probably a number that looks like 10^25 (10 to the power of 25) or something ridiculous along those lines.

[Times Roman]

I don't know TR that is like asking to solve the riddle of Farmer John
Farmer John has 3 cows Bessie, Essie, and Elsie
Farmer John is going on a cruise
Now if it takes a bale and a half of hay to produce a gallon of milk
how many years will farmer John get for Beastiality?
And what does X equal?

ok smartee #3. this is actually a workable statistics problem.

It's in the trillions. The male to female ratio is 1:1 with males having a slight bit more at 50.25%. Just the chances of popping 7 boys in the row are probably 1 in trillions. Now this same chance has to happen twice in a row with the 1 in billions child of the first generation. Now add to that the number of families who even go past 3 children. I don't know much about math but it's probably a number that looks like 10^25 (10 to the power of 25) or something ridiculous along those lines.

some insight into the problem

the odds of a first son is

1:1

second child male

1:2

third child male

1:4

and so on

other variables to consider

odd of even having a first child for a couple are?

a second child after having a first child?

a third child after having a second child are?

and first generation variables:

odds of seventh son surviving to reproductive age?
odds of seventh son copulating with a fertile female?



remember, some couples have NO children!

when you put this together, this is one of those combination/permutation problems we all dreaded in college stats.

anyone care to take a stab?

[Shol'va]

Where is Mr. Rose when we need him?

[Renesis]

To quote George Carlin "At what point does this stuff just break down and become just a lot of stupid shit that somebody made up."

[red_hulk]

It was probably a lot more common back in the day when more people were having more than 2-3 kids. Now the probability just based on that has to be close to 0

[Times Roman]

To quote George Carlin "At what point does this stuff just break down and become just a lot of stupid shit that somebody made up."

Hey!? This is IMPORTANT stupid shit!!

[Times Roman]

and pay attention. this is DUMB Stupid Shit. DIFFERENT!!

[JDawg1536]

ok smartee #3. this is actually a workable statistics problem.



some insight into the problem

the odds of a first son is

1:1

second child male

1:2

third child male

1:4

and so on

other variables to consider

odd of even having a first child for a couple are?

a second child after having a first child?

a third child after having a second child are?

and first generation variables:

odds of seventh son surviving to reproductive age?
odds of seventh son copulating with a fertile female?



remember, some couples have NO children!

when you put this together, this is one of those combination/permutation problems we all dreaded in college stats.

anyone care to take a stab?

The odds of a son being the seventh boy in a row are 2^7 or 1 in 128. Seven straight boys from the seventh straight boy boys would be 2^14 or 1 in 16,384. Of course that would mean you had 16,384 men trying to have seven boys in a row, of which the seventh then has seven boys in a row. My conclusion is it is not workable. Too many factors...... it's completely random.

[Times Roman]

The odds of a son being the seventh boy in a row are 2^7 or 1 in 128. Seven straight boys from the seventh straight boy boys would be 2^14 or 1 in 16,384. Of course that would mean you had 16,384 men trying to have seven boys in a row, of which the seventh then has seven boys in a row. My conclusion is it is not workable. Too many factors...... it's completely random.

this is a very workable problem.

but you need a solid grasp of statistics.

odds of a boy on attempt #

1 = 1:1 (even money bet)
2 = 1:2
3 = 1:4
4 = 1:8
5 = 1:16
6 = 1:32
7 = 1:64 (NOT 128)

Next, you would need to look at the distribution curve of the world population (except china). it will be bell shaped as most distributions are.
verticle axis = couples in (millions)
horizontal axis = number of children born (when child rearing is complete)

you next need to note which % of the couples has greater than 6 children, then divide that by 64.

this will be a very small fraction. Now multiply that by the world population (less china), and this will give you the number of first generation 7th sons.

two more steps....

anyone?

[Times Roman]

bump for some brain power....

....c'mon you blokes. Use that head for more than just looking at porn!!

[MickeyKnox]

i think Times is just making this up as he goes along..lol (jk bro)

and yeah, George Carlin (RIP) always seems to be able to put things in perspective.

[JDawg1536]

this is a very workable problem.

but you need a solid grasp of statistics.

odds of a boy on attempt #

1 = 1:1 (even money bet)
2 = 1:2
3 = 1:4
4 = 1:8
5 = 1:16
6 = 1:32
7 = 1:64 (NOT 128)

Next, you would need to look at the distribution curve of the world population (except china). it will be bell shaped as most distributions are.
verticle axis = couples in (millions)
horizontal axis = number of children born (when child rearing is complete)

you next need to note which % of the couples has greater than 6 children, then divide that by 64.

this will be a very small fraction. Now multiply that by the world population (less china), and this will give you the number of first generation 7th sons.

two more steps....

anyone?

Odds of a boy = 1 out of 2 = 1/2

Odds of two in a row = 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4

Three = 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/8

...........

Seven = 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = (1/2)^7 = 1/128

[Times Roman]

Odds of a boy = 1 out of 2 = 1/2

Odds of two in a row = 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4

Three = 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/8

...........

Seven = 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = (1/2)^7 = 1/128

yep. 128.

my bad.

anyone else?