Your military is in complete disaray. That is why we have to defend you.


http://www.cda-cdai.ca/presentations...esentation.htm


THE STATE OF CANADIAN SECURITY
AND THE CANADIAN FORCES



May 2003

PRESENTED TO THE INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC AFFAIRS OF MONTREAL
INTRODUCTION

GOOD MORNING/EVENING LADIES AND GENTLEMEN. I AM DELIGHTED TO BE HERE, AND TO ADDRESS YOU ON THE CRITICAL ISSUE OF CANADIAN SECURITY AND THE STATE OF THE CANADIAN FORCES. AS FAR AS I AM CONCERNED, SOMEONE SHOULD BE SPEAKING TO CANADIANS ON THIS TOPIC ALL ACROSS THE COUNTRY EVERY DAY OF THE WEEK - AT COMMUNITY EVENTS, FROM ROTARY LUNCHEONS TO CHURCH SUPPERS, NOT TO MENTION ALL OF THE LOCAL MEDIA. IN FACT, WE ARE STARTING TO SEE CONCERNED CANADIANS DOING JUST THAT.

CANADA EXISTS IN A FRAIL STATE DUE TO TWO MAJOR WEAKNESSES: THE HUGE NATIONAL DEBT - THE INTEREST ON WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR ONE-QUARTER OF EVERY TAX DOLLAR PAID BY CANADIANS; THE WEAK CANADIAN CURRENCY, WHICH STIFLES INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT; AND CONCENTRATION OF 87% OF FOREIGN TRADE WITH THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. AS YOU KNOW BETTER THAN ANYONE, CANADA PROSPERS OR SUFFERS ON THE BASIS OF THE SUCCESS OF ITS TRADE RELATIONS.

OVERALL, THE TREND TOWARDS GLOBALIZATION MEANS THAT INSTABILITY ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD COULD QUICKLY PRODUCE A RIPPLE EFFECT THAT WOULD ATTACK THIS INHERENT FRAILTY, THUS SERIOUSLY DEGRADING THE PROSPERITY AND WELL-BEING OF ALL CANADIANS. IN THIS SITUATION, EFFECTIVE NATIONAL SECURITY AND ARMED FORCES EITHER PREVENT OR AT LEAST MITIGATE INSTABILITY.

MANY CANADIANS MAY NOT, OR MAY CHOOSE NOT TO UNDERSTAND THE WAY IN WHICH THEIR ARMED FORCES FIT INTO THE PICTURE - AND WHY THE CONCURRENT WEAKNESS OF THE CANADIAN ARMED FORCES INCREASES THE RISK TO OUR WELL-BEING, EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE NO BARBARIANS AT THE GATES.

I WILL PROVIDE YOU WITH AN OUTLINE OF THE SITUATION, AND THEN WE CAN EXPLORE IT FURTHER DURING THE DISCUSSION PERIOD. I INTEND TO PROCEED UNDER THE FOLLOWING HEADINGS:

THE CURRENT STATE OF THE CANADIAN FORCES;

HOW DID IT HAPPEN? AND

WHAT CAN BE DONE ABOUT IT?

THE CURRENT STATE OF THE CANADIAN FORCES

THE CURRENT UNSATISFACTORY STATE OF THE CANADIAN FORCES IS PRESENTED IN IRON-CLAD DETAIL IN THE MOST RECENT CONFERENCE OF DEFENCE ASSOCIATIONS INSTITUTE STUDY, A NATION AT RISK: The decline of the Canadian Forces, RELEASED IN OCTOBER, 2002. THE STUDY IS AVAILABLE ON THE CDA/CDAI WEBSITE AT www.cda-cdai.ca.

THE DISARRAY OF CANADIAN DEFENCE POLICY AND THE ARMED FORCES IS NO SECRET. OVER THE PAST YEAR, NUMEROUS PARLIAMENTARY COMMITTEES, THE AUDITOR GENERAL, AND OTHER AUTHORITATIVE SOURCES HAVE CONFIRMED THAT FACT. SELECTED RECOMMENDATIONS OF TWELVE OF THESE ORGANIZATIONS ARE LISTED IN ANNEX C OF THE LATEST CDAI STUDY, TO WHICH I REFERRED.

IN PARTICULAR, OUR STUDY EXAMINES HOW, AT A TIME OF GROWING WORLD INSTABILITY, THE PURSUIT OF CANADA=S NATIONAL INTERESTS OF PROSPERITY, SECURITY, AND PROMOTION OF CANADIAN VALUES ARE AT RISK AS A RESULT OF THE NATIONAL WEAKNESS IN DEFENCE. WE IDENTIFIED THREE SPECIFIC AREAS OF RISK:

CANADA=S ECONOMY - GIVEN OUR HEAVY RELIANCE ON TRADE WITH THE UNITED STATES, OUR HIGH DEBT LOAD, AND OUR WEAK CURRENCY;

CANADA=S SECURITY - FROM DIVERSE THREATS AT HOME AND ABROAD, AND;

CANADA=S SOVEREIGNTY - IF WE DON=T DEFEND OURSELVES, OTHERS (MAINLY THE U.S.) WILL.

THE STUDY SHOWS THAT PROBLEMS COMMON TO ALL THREE ARMED SERVICES, THE RESERVES, AND THE LOGISTICS AND OTHER SUPPORT ELEMENTS, CONTRIBUTE TO THE CRISIS IN CANADIAN DEFENCE. THESE INCLUDE:

INADEQUATE FUNDING: THIS IS THE FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM, AND THE OTHERS FLOW FROM IT;

DEMILITARIZATION: BETWEEN ONE-QUARTER AND ONE-THIRD OF THE BUDGET OF THE DEPARTMENT OF NATIONAL DEFENCE IS NOT AVAILABLE FOR SPENDING ON MILITARY CAPABILITIES. THERE IS A MYRIAD OF OTHER DEBILITATING FACTORS UNDER THIS HEADING, PUSHING THE MEMBERS OF THE ARMED FORCES TOWARDS A CIVIL-SERVANT-IN-UNIFORM MENTALITY;

A SERIOUS SHORTAGE OF PERSONNEL: ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH LEADERSHIP EXPERIENCE AND TECHNICAL SKILLS;

A CRITICAL SHORTAGE OF SPARE PARTS: AND OTHER SUPPLIES;

EQUIPMENT THAT IS ARUSTING OUT@: THE RESULT OF OLD AGE, INSUFFICIENT RESOURCES (BOTH PERSONNEL AND MATERIEL), AND ADVANCING TECHNOLOGY; AND

DECAYING INFRASTRUCTURE: ON MILITARY BASES.

THIS LIST OF DISABILITIES CAUSES CORROSION OF KEY MILITARY CAPABILITIES, A SAMPLE OF THE MORE IMPORTANT ARE AS FOLLOWS:

THE NAVY: INSTEAD OF DEPLOYING A DISTINCTLY CANADIAN NAVAL PRESENCE IN INTERNATIONAL OPERATIONS, OUR NAVY WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO DEPLOY INDIVIDUAL CANADIAN SHIPS AND ASSIGN THEM TO TASK GROUPS OF OTHER NAVIES - USUALLY THE U.S. NAVY - WITH CONCURRENT LOSS OF SOVEREIGNTY. THE REST OF THE NAVY WILL BE REDUCED TO A COASTAL PATROL FORCE;

THE ARMY: THE ARMY IS IN THE WORST CONDITION OF ALL THE SERVICES. PERSONNEL LEVELS ARE WELL BELOW THOSE REQUIRED TO EXECUTE ASSIGNED MISSIONS. CONSTANT OVERSEAS DEPLOYMENTS AND ROTATIONS WEAR DOWN PEOPLE AND ADD TO THE INSTABILITY AND DISARRAY. THERE IS A SEVERE SHORTAGE OF SKILLED TECHNICAL PEOPLE TO MAINTAIN NEW EQUIPMENT. THAT, PLUS A SHORTAGE OF SPARE PARTS COULD RESULT IN 40% TO 50% OF THE ARMY=S WEAPONS AND VEHICLES BEING GROUNDED IN THE NEXT 5-6 YEARS. THE ARMY, AS IT NOW STANDS, IS UNSUSTAINABLE;

THE AIR FORCE: THE MOST CRITICAL LIMITATION FACED BY THE AIR FORCE IS LACK OF TRAINED AND EXPERIENCED PERSONNEL. IN THE PAST DECADE, AIRCRAFT HOLDINGS HAVE BEEN REDUCED FROM OVER 700 TO LESS THAN 300. THERE IS NO AIR-TO-AIR REFUELING CAPABILITY, AND THE AIR FORCE CANNOT MOVE CANADIAN TROOPS OVERSEAS ON ITS OWN. FLYING HOURS ARE RESTRICTED, AND ONLY ONE ARCTIC PATROL IS FLOWN OVER CANADA=S VAST NORTHERN TERRITORIES A YEAR;

THE RESERVES: THE ARMY RESERVE - OR MILITIA - COULD PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT ASSISTANCE IN RESOLVING SOME OF THE ARMY=S PERSONNEL SHORTAGE. HOWEVER, THE MILITIA ALSO SUFFERS FROM LIMITATIONS RELATED TO UNDER-FUNDING, LACK OF EQUIPMENT, AND LACK OF PERSONNEL AND TRAINING;

LOGISTICS SUPPORT: LOGISTICS SUPPORT CAN DETERMINE THE SUCCESS OR FAILURE OF MILITARY OPERATIONS. THERE IS AN ACUTE SHORTAGE OF SKILLED TECHNICIANS, AND THERE ARE NOT ENOUGH SUPPLIES TO SUSTAIN MILITARY OPERATIONS. MAKING MATTERS WORSE, THE POLICY OF REPLACING MILITARY SUPPORT PERSONNEL WITH CONTRACTED CIVILIANS COULD CAUSE OPERATIONS TO FAIL, AND PUT SERVICE PERSONNEL AT RISK.

MEDICAL SUPPORT: 35% TO 50% SHORTAGES IN DOCTORS/NURSING STAFF.

CANADA-U.S. RELATIONS

A MAJOR PORTION OF THE CDAI STUDY IS DEVOTED TO THIS TOPIC. IT IS A HOT-BUTTON ITEM SINCE IT FOCUSES ON THE VERY SENSITIVE ISSUE OF SOVEREIGNTY. IT HAS REMAINED A HOT-BUTTON ISSUE WITH COMMENTS MADE RECENTLY BY CANDIDATES IN THEIR BID TO SECURE THE LIBERAL PARTY LEADERSHIP. MANY CANADIANS WHO ARE AGAINST SPENDING MONEY ON THE ARMED FORCES DO NOT AGREE THAT IT IS THROUGH EFFECTIVE ARMED FORCES THAT ONE MAINTAINS NATIONAL SOVEREIGNTY.

WHEN CANADA SUPPORTS THE U.S., IT IS INDIRECTLY SUPPORTING ITSELF. THE REASON FOR THIS IS THAT IF INSTABILITY UNDERMINES THE U.S. ECONOMY, THE FIRST TO SUFFER WILL BE CANADA - AGAIN DUE TO OUR HUGE TRADE IMBALANCE.

THE RESULTS OF A WIDE RANGING SET OF INTERVIEWS THAT WERE CONDUCTED IN WASHINGTON AT THE END OF JULY 2002, INDICATE THAT CANADA-U.S. RELATIONS ARE STRAINED. AMERICANS VOICE STRONG CONCERNS OVER THE ANTI-AMERICAN SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED IN THIS COUNTRY; THE INSENSITIVE REMARKS OF MINISTERS AND OTHERS; AND THE PERCEPTION THAT CANADA IS FREELOADING IN MATTERS OF DEFENCE AS A NATIONAL POLICY. IT MAY WELL BE THAT THE U.S. OUTLOOK ON CANADA IS EVOLVING FROM BENIGN NEGLECT TO EMERGING HOSTILITY.

THE RUNDOWN OF THE CANADIAN FORCES OVER THE PAST THIRTY YEARS WEAKENS OUR ABILITY TO COUNTER THREATS BOTH AT HOME AND OVERSEAS. IT HAS ALSO SQUANDERED THE ENVIABLE REPUTATION CANADIANS EARNED BY THEIR SACRIFICES IN TWENTIETH CENTURY WARS, AND IN THE EARLY DAYS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY ORGANIZATION. THIS IS WHY THE CDA IS ENCOURAGED BY COMMENTS MADE BY LIBERAL CANDIDATES CONCERNING SECURITY AND DEFENCE ISSUES RECENTLY, INCLUDING:

THE NEED FOR A MORE U.S.-FRIENDLY FOREIGN POLICY;

SUPPORT FOR CANADIAN INVOLVEMENT IN A MISSILE-DEFENCE PROGRAM WITH THE U.S.;

THE NEED TO ESTABLISH A PERMANENT CABINET COMMITTEE ON CANADA-U.S. RELATIONS TO MONITOR AND MANAGE ALL ASPECTS OF THIS VITALLY IMPORTANT RELATIONSHIP; AND

THE NEED TO ESTABLISH A HOUSE OF COMMONS COMMITTEE ON CANADA-U.S. RELATIONS.

WHY DID THIS HAPPEN/HOW DID WE GET HERE?

THE SIMPLE ANSWER IS BECAUSE OF POLICY, THE SEVERE DISLOCATIONS TO THE ARMED FORCES AS A RESULT OF THEIR UNIFICATION IN THE 1960s AND 1970s, AND CIVILIZATION OF THE FORCES. ADD TO THIS A THREE-YEAR FREEZE OF DEFENCE FUNDING, STARTING IN 1970. THIS HAPPENED AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME BECAUSE MANY WEAPON SYSTEMS, VEHICLE FLEETS, AND EQUIPMENT WERE OVERDUE FOR REPLACEMENT OR UPGRADING.

THE DEFENCE FUNDING FREEZE WAS THE RESULT OF THE GOVERNMENT=S BELIEF THAT THE SOVIET UNION DID NOT POSE A THREAT TO CANADA, AND THAT MONEY WOULD BE BETTER SPENT ON THE SO-CALLED PEACE DIVIDEND.

ALTHOUGH THE DEFENCE WHITE PAPER OF 1994 WAS A REASONABLE DOCUMENT, THE PROGRAMME REVIEW REDUCTIONS OF 1995-97, AIMED AT ELIMINATING THE DEFICIT, CAUSED THE WHITE PAPER COMMITMENTS TO FAIL BY DEFAULT: THE DND BUDGET WAS CUT BY 23% TO 30% IN PURCHASING POWER.

THAT IS THE SAD STORY OF WHY THE CANADIAN FORCES HAVE BEEN GOING DOWNHILL FOR ALMOST 30 YEARS, WITH THE DECLINE BEING PARTICULARLY STEEP OVER THE PAST DECADE. ONE COULD SAY THAT THE ARMED FORCES ARE LIKE A DYING PATIENT, KEPT ALIVE ONLY BY A LIFE-SUPPORT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF TOKEN ADDITIONS TO THE DND BUDGET. THE PROBLEM NOW, IS THAT THE LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEM ITSELF IS IN JEOPARDY.

THE DEFENCE POLICY UPDATE CONDUCTED MORE THAN A YEAR AND A HALF AGO, CHAIRED BY THE PRIVY COUNCIL OFFICE, CONFIRMED EARLY ON THAT ADDITIONAL FUNDS TO DND WOULD BE MINIMAL. AND ALTHOUGH THE $800 MILLION ADDED TO THE DEFENCE BUDGET IN THE LAST FEDERAL BUDGET IS A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION, WE HAVE A CONCERN THAT MANY CANADIAN FORCES MILITARY CAPABILITIES, ESPECIALLY THOSE NEEDED FOR MORE CHALLENGING OPERATIONS, WILL BE REDUCED, IF NOT ENTIRELY ELIMINATED. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT CUTS TO THE CANADIAN FORCES WILL BE ARBITRARY, RATHER THAN AS A RESULT OF EXPERT STUDY.

THIS LEAVES CANADA WITH A CRITICAL PROBLEM, AND THAT IS: THE WEAK CANADIAN FORCES THAT RESULT MAKES IT IMPOSSIBLE TO CONTRIBUTE TO OPERATIONS ACROSS THE SPECTRUM OF CONFLICT. IN FACT, WE NOW KNOW THAT WE DID NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT RESOURCES TO PARTICIPATE IN THE WAR AGAINST TERRORISM, PLUS CONTRIBUTE IN A CONVENTIONAL WAR AGAINST IRAQ.

MEANWHILE, THE MINISTER OF NATIONAL DEFENCE HAS BEEN RECEIVING AN HODGE-PODGE OF ADVICE IN PERSON AND OVER THE INTERNET THAT URGES HIM TO CUT MILITARY CAPABILITIES, OR BECOME MORE DEPENDANT ON THE RMA AS A WAY TO REDUCE HUMAN RESOURCES.

ONCE THIS TYPE OF PROCESS GETS UNDERWAY, IT IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO STOP IT - SHORT OF DIRECT PERSONAL INTERVENTION BY THE PRIME MINISTER - AND ON THE SUBJECT OF DEFENCE SPENDING THIS, SIMPLY, WILL NOT HAPPEN. SHORT OF AN UNEXPECTED DEVELOPMENT THAT WILL CLEARLY DEMONSTRATE THAT OUR ARMED FORCES DO NOT HAVE THE RESOURCES BY WHICH TO ADDRESS THE SECURITY THREAT TO THIS COUNTRY, THE BUDGET IN 2003 WILL CONTINUE TO RESTRICT MONEY ALLOCATED TO DEFENCE. INSTEAD A TRADE-OFF, PROBABLY, WILL BE ANNOUNCED THAT WOULD SEE THE ELIMINATION OF A NUMBER OF CONVENTIONAL COMBAT CAPABILITIES. THE CANADIAN FORCES COULD BE REDUCED TO NEAR-CONSTABULARY STATUS FOR HOMELAND DEFENCE AND A TOKEN FORCE FOR LOW-LEVEL PEACEKEEPING OPERATIONS OVERSEAS.

SUMMARY

I WOULD LIKE TO FINISH BY DISCUSSING SOME SPECIFIC INITIATIVES THAT I SEE AS NECESSARY TO STOP THE DECLINE OF THE CANADIAN FORCES, AND FORM A FOUNDATION FOR THEIR REHABILITATION:

A SOLID FRONT - POLITICAL/BUREAUCRATIC. THE PRIME MINISTER, THE MINISTER OF NATIONAL DEFENCE, THE CLERK OF THE PRIVY COUNCIL, THE CHIEF OF THE DEFENCE STAFF, AND THE DEPUTY MINISTER OF NATIONAL DEFENCE MUST BE OF ONE MIND IN SUPPORT OF DEFENCE AND THE CANADIAN FORCES. THEY MUST BE STRONG-WILLED AND DETERMINED TO IMPLEMENT CHANGE.

INTEGRATED FULL DEFENCE AND FOREIGN POLICY REVIEW. IDEALLY BY A JOINT COMMITTEE OF THE SENATE AND THE HOUSE OF COMMONS, WITH INPUT FROM EXPERT WITNESSES AND THE PUBLIC, FOLLOWED BY THE PUBLICATION OF LINKED FOREIGN AND DEFENCE WHITE PAPERS TO DEFINE AND IMPLEMENT THE RESULTING NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY.

GOVERNMENT COMMITMENT TO FUND THE SECURITY POLICY. A FAILURE TO DO THIS IN RELATION TO THE 1994 WHITE PAPER IS AT THE HEART OF THE CURRENT DEFENCE CRISIS. THE AUSTRALIANS HAVE RECENTLY COMMITTED FUNDING TO A NEW DEFENCE WHITE PAPER AND ARE ON THE WAY TOWARDS A RATIONAL REBUILDING OF THEIR ARMED FORCES OVER THE NEXT DECADE.

CREATE A NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISORY AGENCY. ALSO KNOWN AS A NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL, MOST WESTERN NATIONS HAVE THEM. BUT CANADA DOES NOT. THERE IS NO APPARENT DEFENCE FILE IN THE PRIME MINISTER=S OFFICE OR THE PRIVY COUNCIL OFFICE. THE FOREIGN AFFAIRS REPRESENTATIVE PROVIDES BOTH FOREIGN POLICY AND DEFENCE POLICY ADVICE TO THE PRIME MINISTER. THE MILITARY OFFICER ASSIGNED TO THE P.C.O. IS NORMALLY OUT OF THE LOOP AS FAR AS ADVICE IS CONCERNED.

REVERSE THE DEMILITARIZATION OF THE CANADIAN FORCES. THIS COVERS A WIDE SPECTRUM OF FACTORS. FOR EXAMPLE, WE MUST START THE RECOVERY OF THE CANADIAN FORCES BY ENSURING MOST OF THE MONEY IN THE DND BUDGET IS AVAILABLE FOR MILITARY EXPENDITURES. THE DEPARTMENT OF NATIONAL DEFENCE SHOULD THEN BE ABSOLVED FROM TREASURY BOARD DIRECTIVES THAT DO NOT RECOGNIZE THE CANADIAN FORCES ARE NOT JUST ANOTHER GOVERNMENT DEPARTMENT LIKE ALL OF THE OTHERS. IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO INVOKE THE NOTWITHSTANDING CLAUSE OF THE CANADIAN CONSTITUTION IN SELECTED CASES. IN SOME WAYS, DEMILITARIZATION EXCEEDS UNDER-FUNDING AS A SEMINAL PROBLEM OF CANADIAN DEFENCE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE.

CONCLUSION

CANADA=S DEFENCE ESTABLISHMENT AND THE CANADIAN FORCES ARE IN DIRE STRAITS, CRISIS, AND DISARRAY. IT IS BECOMING WORSE EACH DAY. THE GOVERNMENT FAILS TO ADDRESS THE PROBLEM AND REFUSES TO PROPERLY FUND THE NATIONAL DEFENCE BUDGET.

THE CANADIAN FORCES CAN ONLY MARGINALLY MEET THEIR COMMITMENTS SET OUT IN THE 1994 DEFENCE WHITE PAPER. WITHDRAWALS FROM KOSOVO, ERITREA, AND ESPECIALLY AFGHANISTAN - AFTER ONLY SIX MONTHS - ATTEST TO THIS FACT. MOREOVER, THE STATE OF TRAINING AND EQUIPMENT OF THESE FORCES ARE OPEN TO QUESTION. THERE HAVE BEEN NO FORMATION LEVEL TRAINING EXERCISES SINCE 1995, AND WILL NOT BE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS SUMMER.

OUR ALLIES HAVE LOST CONFIDENCE IN CANADA AS A RELIABLE PARTNER - ESPECIALLY OUR KEY TRADING PARTNER, THE UNITED STATES. IF WE DO NOT DO OUR PART IN NATO, OTHER COALITIONS, AND BI-LATERALLY IN NORTH AMERICAN DEFENCE, THEY WILL DO IT FOR US WITH THE LOSS OF SOVEREIGNTY THAT IMPLIES.

THE ESSENTIALS ARE QUITE SIMPLE, AND I HOPE I HAVE LAID THEM BEFORE YOU THIS MORNING/EVENING, I HOPE THAT YOU WILL TAKE THEM AWAY WITH YOU AND PUBLICIZE THEM.

THANK YOU.