USA will strike Iran by end of April 07

[eliteforce]

We have a difference of opinion on that one, maybe it's wishfull thinking on your part. nuclear weapons are 1930's technology and it's not difficult to hide the manufacturing. Iran manufactures planes, helicopters, and increasingly advanced missiles, and they are apparently working on an ICBM which is 1960's technology. They have had all the help they need from Pakistan & N.Korea; it's seems inconceivable to me that they don't have nuclear weapons..Pakistan is not exactly a G7 country and they indeginously had their first bomb 15-20 years ago (keep in mind they had the bombs well before the officially tested one). The only way Iran wouldn't have the bomb is if they had made a decision not to develop one for some islamic reason, the chances of that are slim. Not to mention the missiles they are manufacturing-the Shahab 3, Fajr3 are designed to carry nuclear warheads, or they deliver a small warhead some 2000km at a broad target.

>>I agree though that a war betwen the us and iran wont be a nuclear one, simply because Iran has no nukes and arent even close to having them!

[Kärnfysikern]

We have a difference of opinion on that one, maybe it's wishfull thinking on your part. nuclear weapons are 1930's technology and it's not difficult to hide the manufacturing. Iran manufactures planes, helicopters, and increasingly advanced missiles, and they are apparently working on an ICBM which is 1960's technology. They have had all the help they need from Pakistan & N.Korea; it's seems inconceivable to me that they don't have nuclear weapons..Pakistan is not exactly a G7 country and they indeginously had their first bomb 15-20 years ago (keep in mind they had the bombs well before the officially tested one). The only way Iran wouldn't have the bomb is if they had made a decision not to develop one for some islamic reason, the chances of that are slim. Not to mention the missiles they are manufacturing-the Shahab 3, Fajr3 are designed to carry nuclear warheads, or they deliver a small warhead some 2000km at a broad target.

I think you are underestimating the problems involved in building a nuke. Weapons grade enrichment of uranium require huge centrifuge plants. Its not plausible that they would be able to hide something like that. Iran also have problems with mastering the centrifuge technology and the centrifuge technology they have acess to is quite primitive. Just pakistani leftovers. I doubt they had alot of help from pakistan except maby from Khan and his blackmarket technology dealings.

North korea would not be of any help since the one bomb they have managed to build was a utter failure.

The other way to build a bomb is with plutonium. But they dont have any means of producing plutonium and no possible way of doing it in secret. The second problem is that it is tremendously hard to build a plutonium bomb. It require very complex bombmaking to ensure a smooth implosion of the plutonium core. Its doubtfull if even pakistan has built any plutonium bombs. Even if they have there is no telling if it would work unless they test it.

Pakistan did have enrichment capacity to make uranium bombs. Iran doesnt. Thats why I am so confident Iran doesnt have a nuke. That is the reason the IAEA is so confident aswell.

It takes a huge industrial complex to build nukes. The only way to get around it is if some country sold weapons grade uranium to Iran behind closed doors but I dont think any country is stupid enough to do that.

[Old man]

We ended WWII by dropping two very small atomic bombs on 2 cities. The Japanese were ready to go another 10 round with us, UNTIL we nuked them.
300,000 people were vaporized. Women, children , babies...
They were totally devastated, and surrendered in disgrace.
WWII is the last war the United States won. That was 62 years ago.

Perhaps a similar strategy is in order now. Give warning that we are coming in hard and heavy. You have 72 hours to evacuate. Then carpet bomb IRAQ, IRAN, PAKISTAN and, of course AFGHANISTAN, with enough nuclear bombs to kill everyone, and everything in each country..... Then we can come home.
Is that too harsh?

[Flagg]

We ended WWII by dropping two very small atomic bombs on 2 cities. The Japanese were ready to go another 10 round with us, UNTIL we nuked them.
300,000 people were vaporized. Women, children , babies...
They were totally devastated, and surrendered in disgrace.
WWII is the last war the United States won. That was 62 years ago.

Perhaps a similar strategy is in order now. Give warning that we are coming in hard and heavy. You have 72 hours to evacuate. Then carpet bomb IRAQ, IRAN, PAKISTAN and, of course AFGHANISTAN, with enough nuclear bombs to kill everyone, and everything in each country..... Then we can come home.
Is that too harsh?

Are you serious?? Do that and the following day the rest of the world follows!

[eliteforce]

This is non-sense take a look at this link:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/h...tml/mining.stm

Especially where it says:
" reprocessing plant and a reactor to produce sufficient plutonium could be housed inconspicously in an ordinary-looking building."

I have seen pictures of the Israeli facility including a graphical video that shows all the buildings and the underground levels, the Israeli's have there entire program at one site, everything from enrichment to reactor to reprocessing the spent fuel rods, and the entire thing wasn't that big. Even the reactors can be hidden, and nuclear tests can be hidden in a country the size of Iran. I'll see if i can dig up that israeli video on youtube later. The largest maybe the enrichment facilities-but that can be broken up into smaller cascades or hidden underground.

and there is no evidence that the n.korean test "was a complete failure", we only know that there was a test.

I'll say this again, this is 1930's technology and there are Russian and pakistani and chinese scientists all over the place that would be happy to fill in any gaps that they might need. How do you think Pakistan was able to do it so easily 15 years ago, are they so advanced? Pakistan doesn't manufacture it's own aircraft and fighter planes, Iran does. Iranian missiles are longer range and they, not the Pakistanis are working on an ICBM. Iran has more oil revenue.

I think you are underestimating the problems involved in building a nuke. Weapons grade enrichment of uranium require huge centrifuge plants. Its not plausible that they would be able to hide something like that. Iran also have problems with mastering the centrifuge technology and the centrifuge technology they have acess to is quite primitive. Just pakistani leftovers. I doubt they had alot of help from pakistan except maby from Khan and his blackmarket technology dealings.

North korea would not be of any help since the one bomb they have managed to build was a utter failure.

The other way to build a bomb is with plutonium. But they dont have any means of producing plutonium and no possible way of doing it in secret. The second problem is that it is tremendously hard to build a plutonium bomb. It require very complex bombmaking to ensure a smooth implosion of the plutonium core. Its doubtfull if even pakistan has built any plutonium bombs. Even if they have there is no telling if it would work unless they test it.

Pakistan did have enrichment capacity to make uranium bombs. Iran doesnt. Thats why I am so confident Iran doesnt have a nuke. That is the reason the IAEA is so confident aswell.

It takes a huge industrial complex to build nukes. The only way to get around it is if some country sold weapons grade uranium to Iran behind closed doors but I dont think any country is stupid enough to do that.

[shrpskn]

Perhaps a similar strategy is in order now. Give warning that we are coming in hard and heavy. You have 72 hours to evacuate. Then carpet bomb IRAQ, IRAN, PAKISTAN and, of course AFGHANISTAN, with enough nuclear bombs to kill everyone, and everything in each country..... Then we can come home.
Is that too harsh?

You can't be serious....I think you're forgetting about the repercussions that this would have on not just the countries that may be hit by a strike, but the effects that such an attack would have on surrounding countries...and not every civilian on such a large scale is going to be able to just pack their bags and evacuate before such an attack if a warning was even given...which wouldn't happen anyway...nowadays it's preemptive, precision strikes that mainly take place.

If the US took such a course there would be so much global out cry, I guarantee there would be strikes happening right within the US from countries that would be catching the fall out from such an attack...i.e. Russia and China would be the first ones to catch the fallout.

You need to look at this in a broader fashion and grasp the scope of the situation on a global scale rather than a regional scale. You're theory would never happen unless one of any the aforementioned countries make such an attack at on US soils first, then the US would obviously respond with devastation...

Bottom line is, the US is not going to wipe out any region, especially the mideast, that is suppling a majority of the worlds' oil resources just based on assumptions or any kind of accurate or inaccurate intelligence. The US has way too much interest in that area to wipe it off the face of the planet...why do you think the US is in Iraq to begin with?...To finally get a foothold in the region for more reasons than just the freedom of Iraqis.

JMHO,

-ShrpSkn

[Kärnfysikern]

As far as I know it is impossible to hide a nuclear test. It can be detected very far away with seismografs and even minute fallout can be detected.
From every account I have read the n.korea bomb was a failure. Low yield and dirty.

You could hide a research reactor in a ordinary building. Handling of the waste when reprocessing it would be hard. When you pic the fuel rods out of the reactor they are imensly radioactive. To treat them chemicaly in order to separate away the plutonium is no small task!

About Pakistan, remember they had the aid of China. China helped pakistan with everything! There is no one helping Iran in the same fashion. Pakistan never had any IAEA inspectors in their facilities either I guess? But Iran has had inspectors everywhere.

That link seems scetchy. It claim that you only need 4kg of plutonium in a nuke. That might be true for state of the art implosion devices. But hardly true for a crude first plutonium bomb. No way.

A question, why do you think the IAEA and every interviewed expert are so confident Iran is years from a nuke?

Also keep in mind that it would be close to impossible to keep it a secret. Is there any country that has been able to keep a wmd program secret? If it was so easy to make a bomb why did Iraq fail?

Two good links
http://svt.se/svt/play/video.jsp?a=706067
http://svt.se/svt/play/video.jsp?a=706068

This is non-sense take a look at this link:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/h...tml/mining.stm

Especially where it says:
" reprocessing plant and a reactor to produce sufficient plutonium could be housed inconspicously in an ordinary-looking building."

I have seen pictures of the Israeli facility including a graphical video that shows all the buildings and the underground levels, the Israeli's have there entire program at one site, everything from enrichment to reactor to reprocessing the spent fuel rods, and the entire thing wasn't that big. Even the reactors can be hidden, and nuclear tests can be hidden in a country the size of Iran. I'll see if i can dig up that israeli video on youtube later. The largest maybe the enrichment facilities-but that can be broken up into smaller cascades or hidden underground.

and there is no evidence that the n.korean test "was a complete failure", we only know that there was a test.

I'll say this again, this is 1930's technology and there are Russian and pakistani and chinese scientists all over the place that would be happy to fill in any gaps that they might need. How do you think Pakistan was able to do it so easily 15 years ago, are they so advanced? Pakistan doesn't manufacture it's own aircraft and fighter planes, Iran does. Iranian missiles are longer range and they, not the Pakistanis are working on an ICBM. Iran has more oil revenue.

[Kärnfysikern]

Ohh one more thing. If you want to produce weapons grade plutonium you have to do it in a reactor dedicated for that purpose and they need heavy water. Irans heavy water facility(ARAK) is not finished yet right? Either way it has not been in operation for long. Heavy water is highly regulated so its doubtfull they would be able to buy it in secret.

[eliteforce]

As far as I know it is impossible to hide a nuclear test. It can be detected very far away with seismografs and even minute fallout can be detected.
From every account I have read the n.korea bomb was a failure. Low yield and dirty.

As far as we know everything is fed to us by the US dominated news media-which is controlled by the govt-military industrial complex, in Iraq they knew that enough Americans would support war if they thought that Iraq had 'some kind of 9-11 type wmd program' but not nukes, making war on a country with nukes is too dangerous. This time they're trying to sell a line-"we'd better attack to stop them from developing nukes" or they're trying to keep the military option open. If Americans know they have nukes already, they will be inclined to think "well they got em but their not using them, lets just leave it alone and try diplomacy-not good for the war machine. so supposedly we know exactly what happened with the nk test from space or a seismograph. the 'intelligence' was wrong in iraq and this time it's wrong in reverse.

About Pakistan, remember they had the aid of China. China helped pakistan with everything! There is no one helping Iran in the same fashion. Pakistan never had any IAEA inspectors in their facilities either I guess? But Iran has had inspectors everywhere.

Russia helped build the bushier plant for Iran, pakistan has helped Iran with their nuclear program and they have help from China as well. But ultimatly the Pakistanis constructed their own reactors and centrifuges etc. RazKhan transfered nuclear technology to Iran including bomb mockups and centrifuges-some of which were discovered in a cave from information given to the IAEA from one of these moles. when the IAEA was finally given access to the cave, they found traces of bomb grade enriched uranium on the centrifuges. Iran said it was from when the centrifuges were in pakistan which is probably bs. The IAEA is only given access to certain large scale sites like bushier and natanz, they are not allowed to visit military sites or anything Iran doesn't want them too, Iran is considered in non-compliance. Israeli intelligence has said that Iran has 2 nuclear programs, the one they share with the IAEA and a secret one run by the Iranian military.
The IAEA is a political organization, and the politics in Russia, China, even Europe is empathetic to the Iranian postion that why should the US and Israel hang nuclear weapons over Irans head while Iran is singled out for forced disarmanent.

Also keep in mind that it would be close to impossible to keep it a secret. Is there any country that has been able to keep a wmd program secret? If it was so easy to make a bomb why did Iraq fail?

The Soviet Union kept their entire space shuttle program and their space station development a secret from the west. no one knew the Russians were building Buran or Mir until we saw them blast off into space on Russian TV. The soviets were able to keep various massive projects secret even in the 1980s when US spy satelite technolgy was advanced. when it comes to national security it's possible to hide things.
I didn't say it was so easy, but building an indeginous fighter plane isn't easy either. Iraq was on it's way to developing a nuclear weapon until Saddam ordered the program dismantled in 1991 prior to the inspections, the inspectors dismantled the rst of it. Saddam kept his word and look what he got in return, never again will they be so naive.

Ohh one more thing. If you want to produce weapons grade plutonium you have to do it in a reactor dedicated for that purpose and they need heavy water. Irans heavy water facility(ARAK) is not finished yet right? Either way it has not been in operation for long. Heavy water is highly regulated so its doubtfull they would be able to buy it in secret.

well they would manufacture their own heavy water in secret. and as you can see from the bbc link for a uranium 235 bomb, you only need highly enriched uranium, not a reactor or a heavywater thing, the debate here is does Iran already have a bomb, a nuke is a nuke, i'm just saying they already got nuklear bombs.

Here's that video of the Israeli Dimona facility, the facility has everything except large scale uranium enrichment, something they likly have hidden elseware..but as you can see Dimona isn't very big, if you break up those processes it would be even easier to hide.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=Yf39qkvwOhU

[JARD]

eliteforce, my bad... i removed it as requested.

-JARD

[eliteforce]

can you not bog down our threads with totally off-topic pointless sht

[DTBusta]

Look semens, its either going to happen or its not. April isn't far away. If some are right about the strength of the military Industrial complex and the Isreali connection, than we may all be in for a surprise. Blair's last day is the last day in April...I believe if this is true and we do end up bombing Iran, they truly know whats coming. The New World Order announced by Bush number 1 could come to fruition. Our country is already trying to bring canada and mexico and us into one conglomerate...where over there in the middle east shifting around a bunch of governments, if there is a secret agenda, no body knows. The only things we know is that the same "terrorists that we are supposedly fighting now, we , yes our country personally trained to fight the soviets out of Afghanistan , we trained and recruited Bin Laden himself to do the job....than years later they attack us? my point is this, why have we not openly spoken about this after 9/11/that is a major thing, we may have not been attacked if we didnt establish binladen and then the Taliban in Afghanistan. Hopefully not but if we do start bombing Iran for its Nuclear facilities, we are in for an economic crisis along with many more enemies. Dam we were better off not opening this pandora's box...we can only ask why?


http://prisonplanet.com/articles/aug...806usbuilt.htm

we also built Irans most fameous nuclear facilities way back when, talk about biting our selves in the ass more than once.

[eliteforce]

THX Jard, ofcorce you could always post your einstein thing on another thread

[DTBusta]

Oldman- maybe the Bush administration has a place for you there? Either that or is it you Carl Rove, you genius you..?

[Kärnfysikern]

As far as we know everything is fed to us by the US dominated news media-which is controlled by the govt-military industrial complex, in Iraq they knew that enough Americans would support war if they thought that Iraq had 'some kind of 9-11 type wmd program' but not nukes, making war on a country with nukes is too dangerous. This time they're trying to sell a line-"we'd better attack to stop them from developing nukes" or they're trying to keep the military option open. If Americans know they have nukes already, they will be inclined to think "well they got em but their not using them, lets just leave it alone and try diplomacy-not good for the war machine. so supposedly we know exactly what happened with the nk test from space or a seismograph. the 'intelligence' was wrong in iraq and this time it's wrong in reverse.

Well Im not american so the news I se and read isnt dominated by the US

I think the smoking gun in a nuke test is detectable radioactive substances. Im sure the arab states around Iran have invested heavily in detection equipment. But Im not 100% sure on how nuke tests are monitored. I would be very very suprised if its possible to hide a nuke test anywhere in the world though.

Russia helped build the bushier plant for Iran, pakistan has helped Iran with their nuclear program and they have help from China as well. But ultimatly the Pakistanis constructed their own reactors and centrifuges etc. RazKhan transfered nuclear technology to Iran including bomb mockups and centrifuges-some of which were discovered in a cave from information given to the IAEA from one of these moles. when the IAEA was finally given access to the cave, they found traces of bomb grade enriched uranium on the centrifuges. Iran said it was from when the centrifuges were in pakistan which is probably bs. The IAEA is only given access to certain large scale sites like bushier and natanz, they are not allowed to visit military sites or anything Iran doesn't want them too, Iran is considered in non-compliance. Israeli intelligence has said that Iran has 2 nuclear programs, the one they share with the IAEA and a secret one run by the Iranian military.
The IAEA is a political organization, and the politics in Russia, China, even Europe is empathetic to the Iranian postion that why should the US and Israel hang nuclear weapons over Irans head while Iran is singled out for forced disarmanent.

I do not think Russia has any real sympathy for Iran. Russia has its own fair share of problem with radical islam so I dont think they want to se a powerfull islamic nation. The ties betwen them seems to be economical first and foremost.

The centrifuges Iran is running rightnow is pakistani design. But not the best pakistan have and Iran has had alot of problem making them work right. Thats why things have been so slow in uhh is it natanz. I always forget the names.

The Soviet Union kept their entire space shuttle program and their space station development a secret from the west. no one knew the Russians were building Buran or Mir until we saw them blast off into space on Russian TV. The soviets were able to keep various massive projects secret even in the 1980s when US spy satelite technolgy was advanced. when it comes to national security it's possible to hide things.
I didn't say it was so easy, but building an indeginous fighter plane isn't easy either.

I didnt know Buran was a secret?

Building a fighter jet isnt realy that hard. Heck sweden has continously since ww2 had some of the best fighter jets in the world and we only have a population of 8 million and not to bloated defense budget.
The plans for a swedish nuclear weapon was quite extensive before it was decided we dont want one. I dont know if we would have been able to keep a project of that size secret

Iraq was on it's way to developing a nuclear weapon until Saddam ordered the program dismantled in 1991 prior to the inspections, the inspectors dismantled the rst of it. Saddam kept his word and look what he got in return, never again will they be so naive.

Yes invading iraq sure wasnt a good signal to the world.

well they would manufacture their own heavy water in secret. and as you can see from the bbc link for a uranium 235 bomb, you only need highly enriched uranium, not a reactor or a heavywater thing, the debate here is does Iran already have a bomb, a nuke is a nuke, i'm just saying they already got nuklear bombs.

Yes but then there is the problem again with enrichment. Making a uranium bomb is dirt easy if you just have Uranium. But I have seen no evidence that Irans enrichment technology is good enough for them to have been able to produce enough u235.

Here's that video of the Israeli Dimona facility, the facility has everything except large scale uranium enrichment, something they likly have hidden elseware..but as you can see Dimona isn't very big, if you break up those processes it would be even easier to hide.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=Yf39qkvwOhU

Hmm well it counts as big in my book The thing is this kind of plant does not apply to Iran. They have no reactor capable of producing weapon suitable plutonium so they need extensive enrichment plants.

[shrpskn]

I do not think Russia has any real sympathy for Iran. Russia has its own fair share of problem with radical islam so I dont think they want to se a powerfull islamic nation. The ties betwen them seems to be economical first and foremost.

Economical first and foremost is correct...I believe Russia has vested interest in Iran as far as oil trade goes, hence their hesitancy to take a strong side in any bold moves as far as U.N. sanctions go.

Problem is, only Iran and Russia know the full scale of such trade. Oil is life blood of many countries such as Russia and when they have a good trade relationship with a country such as Iran, who knows what exactly Iran is getting in return for their oil?

Just a thought.

[DTBusta]

the weapons, oh the weapons, mostly anti aircraft missiles I hear the pundits talking about on all of the major news outlets, I mean all of the 3 news outlets, you know them, faux,cnn,and msnbc. They are prepared if we start striking them. They are either up to no good, but as anything good and evil isn't cut and dry like that.Majority of Mullahs in Iran want their president to back down. They both have seen themselves named on Bush's "Axis Of Evil" along with Iraq, and clearly everyone saw what happened to them. They see whats up regaurdless and have to have their guard up, and apparently they are taking the tougher stance...weapons for oil from Russia.

[Information]

The Israeli flag has been my addy for a very long time now. I don't know how to change or add avies and I had a mod do it for me so I could show support for our ally during the time the Religion/Political forum was up and infested by islamofascists. If a mod reads this and wishes too, they are more than welcome to replace what is there now with "old glory", or the "don't tread on me" flag.

Per your request.

[Swifto]

So long as there is oil in the middle east and the USA are benifiting from it. They wont attack Iran IMHO. There will be too many reprocations.

[DTBusta]

Not much time to go....

[pbjones81]

We ended WWII by dropping two very small atomic bombs on 2 cities. The Japanese were ready to go another 10 round with us, UNTIL we nuked them.
300,000 people were vaporized. Women, children , babies...
They were totally devastated, and surrendered in disgrace.
WWII is the last war the United States won. That was 62 years ago.
Is that too harsh?

I guess in a way you are right....because "technically" WWII is the last war the United States has fought. Vietnam, North Korea, Panama, the Gulf War, Afghanistan, Iraq 2003.....those are/were not "wars" as the US never "declared" war on those countries.

Now, if you just want to look at them one in the same, how can you say that we lost those conflicts? What is the definition of "winning" the war? Signing a Peace Treaty? You dont sign a peace treaty if you were never at war to begin with. Ceasefires however, were signed.

Korea: We drove them all the way back to the tip of their country, then they quit fighting......then we withdrew. How is that losing?

Vietnam: While I will agree that this is largely considered our first military defeat, come on...the US fought this war with one hand tied behind their back. Our government refused to bomb some sites that were obviously trouble areas. Ask John McCain if you dont believe me. It was a political war. Our objective for being there was ultimately not accomplished, but we did drive them back and into agreeing to a ceasefire, THEN we started withdrawing....it wasnt until a year later that they invaded South Vietnam again (after the majority of our forces had left). By the way, we killed them at a rate of 20:1

Iraq 1991: Baghdad was the most heavily air defended city in history since Hanoi, Vietnam. Within 48 hours, the United States had destroyed 90% of Baghdads air defenses with the F-117 Stealth (without a single loss of their own). After the air war, it took the Marines/Army another 100 hrs to completely and totally destroy the 3rd largest standing army in history. Their tanks were imploding around them before they ever even knew our tanks were there. In addition, 100% of Iraqi jets that were brave enough to engage our F-15/F-16's were blown out of the sky. The rest flew to Iran in fear. My dad was there as an F-16 pilot.

Afghanistan/Iraq: The stated goals were to destroy their formal forces and erradicate the countries of their then current regimes....which was done very quickly. The United States controls both countries now and are fighting a rebellion/insurgancy.

IMO, Israel has MUCH more to worry about regarding Iran than the United States. Its obvious that Iran hates us, but not to the point that they would start a war with us. Israel/Iran, on the other hand, are sworn enemies and Iran has publically stated that its goal is to wipe Israel off the face of the map.

When Bush said "fight the terrorists there or fight them here" he was right. At the moment all they are capable of is throwing rocks and petrol bombs, but with all the oil money in the middle east, can you imagine if they got ahold of a couple battleships and decided to sail over here to Florida?

Right now they are just fighting Israel....but it wont always be that way.

[Mus505]

i dont think thats a good idea....will create more enemies around the world