100 million deaths per year...

[Twist]

I want everyone to check this out. I realize this is the lounge so few will think critically and discuss seriously, but look at this.


This is the world population related to oil. You can see how we thrive on oil (its in everything used to make a car and its used to run a car, its in toothpaste, paint - everything), and you can see how the population growth is propped up by oil. Well it is known that oil reserves are declining...

So what happens when it runs out? It's logical to assume that if something is completely propped up by a support, when you take the support away...

[songdog]

Dont we have synthic oil? You are kickin a dead horse bro.

[DSM4Life]

[Flagg]

Five people are born and 3 people die every second for a net gain of 2 people added to the population every second. Oil is tied into every aspect of our lives, transport, food, textiles, plastics and so forth. By 2030 our population will increase to 8 million. As a consequence 50% more water, 50% more food and 30% more energy will need to be produced to accommadate. Alternative energy is not going to be the only problem. There's big talk of Bio Fuels but they directly compete with agriculture for land space. Expect to see Nuclear stations to become very viable. The biggest problem is the population and uneven distribution! There is apparantly only 34 years of oil reserves and 36 years of gas left. Energy prices is the big thing on the news at the moment. The human race has a tough century ahead..

[auslifta]

I highly doubt oil production to go down over next 15 years, demand will only get stronger, that third graph seems BS to me. The population growth over the last 100 years has alot to do with medical advances keeping people older longer. There is definately too many people on this planet..........the shiit will hit the fan one day in the near future, food crisis/disease anyone?

[VegasRenegade]

I want everyone to check this out. I realize this is the lounge so few will think critically and discuss seriously, but look at this.


This is the world population related to oil. You can see how we thrive on oil (its in everything used to make a car and its used to run a car, its in toothpaste, paint - everything), and you can see how the population growth is propped up by oil. Well it is known that oil reserves are declining...

So what happens when it runs out? It's logical to assume that if something is completely propped up by a support, when you take the support away...

The clasic statistic mistake. see explanation from Weiki below. If it is Causation at all I would think it is the other way around. More People demand more Oil. Not more oil makes more people


Correlation does not imply causation" (related to "ignoring a common cause" and questionable cause) is a phrase used in science and statistics to emphasize that correlation between two variables does not automatically imply that one causes the other (though correlation is necessary for linear causation in the absence of any third and countervailing causative variable, and can indicate possible causes or areas for further investigation; in other words, correlation can be a hint).[1][2]

The opposite belief, correlation proves causation, is a logical fallacy by which two events that occur together are claimed to have a cause-and-effect relationship. The fallacy is also known as cum hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin for "with this, therefore because of this") and false cause. By contrast, the fallacy post hoc ergo propter hoc requires that one event occur before the other and so may be considered a type of cum hoc fallacy.

[JohnnyVegas]

The above correlation/causation issue is something everyone should learn. It is important for critical thinking and decision making.

My comment is completely unrelated to the data from Twist.

[Twist]

Dont we have synthic oil? You are kickin a dead horse bro.

Are you implying that we are not dependent on oil?...

I highly doubt oil production to go down over next 15 years, demand will only get stronger, that third graph seems BS to me. The population growth over the last 100 years has alot to do with medical advances keeping people older longer. There is definately too many people on this planet..........the shiit will hit the fan one day in the near future, food crisis/disease anyone?

Food crisis and disease can be directly linked to the things that prop up harvesting, transportation etc. Petroleum is used in the machines, mechanical irrigation, and the pesticides and fertilizers. For every calorie of food energy there is 6 calories of energy used to produce it. Seriously oil is used in everything so we take out oil and what are we left with?

The clasic statistic mistake. see explanation from Weiki below. If it is Causation at all I would think it is the other way around. More People demand more Oil. Not more oil makes more people
exactly my point. More people demand more water = water consumption HAS to go up. Dwindling water supply = less people. Doesn't matter which one causes which, just that population growth requires resources.


Correlation does not imply causation" (related to "ignoring a common cause" and questionable cause) is a phrase used in science and statistics to emphasize that correlation between two variables does not automatically imply that one causes the other (though correlation is necessary for linear causation in the absence of any third and countervailing causative variable, and can indicate possible causes or areas for further investigation; in other words, correlation can be a hint).[1][2]

The opposite belief, correlation proves causation, is a logical fallacy by which two events that occur together are claimed to have a cause-and-effect relationship. The fallacy is also known as cum hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin for "with this, therefore because of this") and false cause. By contrast, the fallacy post hoc ergo propter hoc requires that one event occur before the other and so may be considered a type of cum hoc fallacy.

This is not a statistic mistake and I have spoken many times on correlation and causation. Wiki "carrying capacity."


The way our economy/world view is set up is just like a pyramid scheme. We require constant growth for survival. That growth is fueled by oil and natural gas. Each nuclear plant requires about 20 years to plan and build. So if we are to make a switch then we better start building.

[JohnnyVegas]

The way our economy/world view is set up is just like a pyramid scheme. We require constant growth for survival.

I have been thinking about the above reality lately (although not in relation to oil). My city has been hit the worst by the real estate bubble, the local economy is in shambles, and my business has take a huge hit...it is the worst it has been since I started it 17 years ago. My wife and I have realized the way our economy works is stupid, so we are selling our bigger place and moving into a smaller loft. We are probably selling a couple of our cars. We are delaying having a child, or maybe not having one. Constantly expanding on a personal or business level is just insane.

The problem is, if a lot of people do what we are doing, it will make things even worse for the economy.

Sorry for the semi-highjack, but it seemed important to stress that we don't need to JUST shrink the amount of oil we use. We need to reduce the amount of lots of stuff that we use. Funny thing is, I am not a "green" guy. I am not trying to save the world. I am just trying to bring sanity to my small piece of it.

[VegasRenegade]

I have been thinking about the above reality lately (although not in relation to oil). My city has been hit the worst by the real estate bubble, the local economy is in shambles, and my business has take a huge hit...it is the worst it has been since I started it 17 years ago. My wife and I have realized the way our economy works is stupid, so we are selling our bigger place and moving into a smaller loft. We are probably selling a couple of our cars. We are delaying having a child, or maybe not having one. Constantly expanding on a personal or business level is just insane.

The problem is, if a lot of people do what we are doing, it will make things even worse for the economy.

Sorry for the semi-highjack, but it seemed important to stress that we don't need to JUST shrink the amount of oil we use. We need to reduce the amount of lots of stuff that we use. Funny thing is, I am not a "green" guy. I am not trying to save the world. I am just trying to bring sanity to my small piece of it.

It will get far worse as we continue to follow a path that will destroy the American Middle class. Who will there be left to consume all this garbage.

[VegasRenegade]

You have a point the oil products have made it possible to improve the production of food and other area that make population growth possible. What about the fact that most of the population growth has occured in areas that used very little of those products during that time period. Also big bussiness will find other things that work as well as soon as they have gotten as many $$ as possible out of oil.

[Twist]

I have not found one industry with growth that doesn't use oil. Not even close. Oil is tied into everything. I agree we can fund a substitute, but we have to be given the proper amount of time to do so. The problem is, we have no idea how much oil is left and nobody is saying much. Around the 1970's there was a lot of talk about peak oil and administrations were saying that we must do something blah blah blah. Afterwards administrations went quiet. SA won't tell us how much oil is left but I can tell you not much. How do I know? Because they are doing very costly offshore drilling. Why would you do that now when you have loads of cheap oil under you? Makes no sense.
Bush came into office and immediately classified everything and put DICK Cheney in charge of it. We then invaded Iraq and built a permanent embassy (wouldn't do that if it was temporary stay), and assured oil companies their share of oil.
Problem is, there's not much oil there. I mean there is a lot, but we aren't talking a reserve that would save us. We are scrambling for small reserves and taking huge steps to get them (war lol). So why would we do this if we have plenty of oil?
Right now we are propped up by oil, we have no substitute. If we were to run out of oil (not runout but cost of oil was too much to purchase) then would we collapse?

Many seem to think so and have actually predicted this whole economy collapse along with the much of what's going on in the middle east and uprisings etc. Granted they some said it would spread to Saudi Arabia which hasn't happened. Collapse of our currency and countries no longer using it as the world currency was all predicted long ago (this isn't surprising though as it doesn't make too much sense). These predictions were long long ago and Cheney and that particular administration made the life of people (like Mike Ruppert) hell. I'm not into the whole doomsday stuff but there is always a medium between the two.

Just wondering if anyone has thoughts about what would happen if oil got pulled. More importantly, what should we buy up. I'm guessing natural gas is next followed by nuclear. Solar and wind are good but we need to store it (lithium batteries maybe?) when it isn't being used. We also have the issue of electricity being used by the places that generate it before it get's to other places.

[JJ78]

There is unlimited amounts of oil below our feet. The Russians were the first to drill a deep well. I forget the name of the kind of well, but it is the same kind of well that the Deep Water Horizon was. There are rivers of oil down there and it is constantly reproducing. It is a natural substance that Mother Earth produces.

It will never run out, we havent even begun to tap into the mass deposits that we have right here in the US.

[JJ78]

I do believe that the US is depleting the middle east of its oil supply.

[Twist]

There is unlimited amounts of oil below our feet. The Russians were the first to drill a deep well. I forget the name of the kind of well, but it is the same kind of well that the Deep Water Horizon was. There are rivers of oil down there and it is constantly reproducing. It is a natural substance that Mother Earth produces.

It will never run out, we havent even begun to tap into the mass deposits that we have right here in the US.

Can you site me a source that says we have unlimited amounts of oil please?

[auslifta]

I got an email little while ago you might find interesting I'll dig it up........................

[auslifta]

Dont know if it's true os BS..............



OIL - you better sit down... Here's an interesting read, important and verifiable information: About 6 months ago, the writer was watching a news program on oil and one of the Forbes Bros. was the guest. The host said to Forbes, "I am going to ask you a direct question and I would like a direct answer; how much oil does the U.S. have in the ground?" Forbes did not miss a beat, he said, "more than all the Middle East put together." Please read below.
The U. S. Geological Service issued a report in April 2008 that only scientists and oil men knew was coming, but man was it big. It was a revised report (hadn't been updated since 1995) on how much oil was in this area of the western 2/3 of North Dakota, western South Dakota , and extreme eastern Montana ...... check THIS out:









http://bakkenshale.net/bakkenshalemap.html

The Bakken is the largest domestic oil discovery since Alaska 's Prudhoe Bay , and has the potential to eliminate all American dependence on foreign oil. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates it at 503 billion barrels. Even if just 10% of the oil is recoverable... at $107 a barrel, we're looking at a resource base worth more than $5..3 trillion.

"When I first briefed legislators on this, you could practically see their jaws hit the floor. They had no idea.." says Terry Johnson, the Montana Legislature's financial analyst. "

This sizable find is now the highest-producing onshore oil field found in the past 56 years," reports The Pittsburgh Post Gazette. It's a formation known as the Williston Basin , but is more commonly referred to as the 'Bakken.' It stretches from Northern Montana, through North Dakota and into Canada .. For years, U. S. oil exploration has been considered a dead end. Even the 'Big Oil' companies gave up searching for major oil wells decades ago. However, a recent technological breakthrough has opened up the Bakken's massive reserves.... and we now have access of up to 500 billion barrels. And because this is light, sweet oil, those billions of barrels will cost Americans just $16 PER BARREL!

That's enough crude to fully fuel the American economy for 2041 years straight. And if THAT didn't throw you on the floor, then this next one should - because it's from 2006!

U. S. Oil Discovery- Largest Reserve in the World Stansberry Report Online - 4/20/2006

Hidden 1,000 feet beneath the surface of the Rocky Mountains lies the largest untapped oil reserve in the world. It is more than 2 TRILLION barrels. On August 8, 2005 President Bush mandated its extraction. In three and a half years of high oil prices none has been extracted. With this motherload of oil why are we still fighting over off-shore drilling?

They reported this stunning news: We have more oil inside our borders, than all the other proven reserves on earth. Here are the official estimates:

- 8-times as much oil as Saudi Arabia

- 18-times as much oil as Iraq

- 21-times as much oil as Kuwait

- 22-times as much oil as Iran

- 500-times as much oil as Yemen

- and it's all right here in the Western United States .

HOW can this BE?

HOW can we NOT BE extracting this?

Because the environmentalists and others have blocked all efforts to help America become independent of foreign oil! Again, we are letting a small group of people dictate our lives and our economy.....WHY?

James Bartis, lead researcher with the study says we've got more oil in this very compact area than the entire Middle East -more than 2 TRILLION barrels untapped. That's more than all the proven oil reserves of crude oil in the world today, reports The Denver Post.

Don't think 'OPEC' will drop its price - even with this find? Think again! It's all about the competitive marketplace, - it has to. Think OPEC just might be funding the environmentalists?

Got your attention yet?

Now, while you're thinking about it, do this:

Pass this along.

If you don't take a little time to do this,

then you should stifle yourself the next time you complain about gas prices - by doing NOTHING, you forfeit your right to complain.

[auslifta]

If I knew I was sitting on a massive deposit of crude, I'd deplete everyone else's supply, suck it dry. Then charge a fortune selling mine back.

[Twist]

THe first one I already knew about. The second one is news to me. It's from stansberry though so idk how reliable it is... Here's what could be happening:
1. The world's supply is running low and the government knows about it and doesn't want a huge crash; they are scrambling to find new sources (like I have discussed above). Alternatives need to be found asap otherwise we are in for some trouble and everybody better learn to grow their own food cuz everything will be local.
2. We have plenty of oil and are depleting other countries of their reserves knowing we have tons of oil ourselves. We plan to jack the price up and screw over the rest of the world, especially our enemies. Middle East will turn back to sand dunes if they have not properly built their economy. The US will have more time to discover an alternative source, but one will be needed no matter. THE PEOPLE of the US better make sure that we are given a cut of this money (like SA) if this is true. Oil will be insanely high and our profit margin will be vast.

Currently companies like Suncor that deal with the oil sands are seen as not very profitable but they will rise. Buy now, they just had a huge dip. Anybody know the companies that have a stake in Dakota and other oil reserves around the US?

If I knew I was sitting on a massive deposit of crude, I'd deplete everyone else's supply, suck it dry. Then charge a fortune selling mine back.

BINGO! We are doing this no matter what. Whether we have a small amount of oil or a big amount of oil, we are depleting others' first.


Isn't it funny how aweful Americans are? I mean, we are trying to deplete everyone else's sources and then hike ours up. This is amazing. I am very interested in oil and god do I wish I could find a job in it. This is gonna be some good stuff the next 20 years. I don't make much $$, but I have put my money where my mouth is that's for sure. Let's see if I crash and burn or make it big lol.

[auslifta]

one company is called continental resources

[auslifta]

http://www.contres.com/

they have to frack in order to access the oil in the shale, which I think is a bad thing.

[Times Roman]

As our ability and tech improves, we continually find new oil/natural gas reserves we hadn't considered. My gut tells me Canada is sitting on huge reserves they don't even know about.

Think about this. Carbohydrate + time = hydrocarbons. there has been carbohydrate for billions of years. It only takes a few dozen thousand to a hundred thousand years to make oil. So I'm thinking as our tech improves, we will continue to find abundances of oil reserves everywhere. They will just become more difficult to access.

Didn't we just find more pyramids under the sands of some persian gulf region that have yet to be cleared and explored? how did we find them? newly developed tech is how we found them.

the same will be true for oil. we will continue to find oil reserves we had not previously known about. With time, I suspect we will realize oil is everywhere.

so the real question is, how do we get off the oil?

[VegasRenegade]

you have hit on the thing most likely to cause a huge problem for the U.S. the dollar no longer being the worlds reserve currency. Our massive debt will cause this not oil.

[Flagg]

Whether there is only 35 years of oil reserves left or other wells not considered, the fact remains that this is a FINITE SOURCE of energy! Oil comes from the remains of prehistoric animals and plants and unless people are foolish to believe there was an infinite amount of those around 300-60 million years ago, they are in for a shock. And what does that tell you, that some people think we have used up hundreds of millions of years of hydrocarbons in as little as 160 years? Because much of the world has literally become so reliant and addicted to oil and the benefits it brings, transfering over to an alternative source of energy is going to be hugely problematic.

However, there are alternatives to oil. It's water people should be worried about. There is NO SUBSTITUTE for clean, fresh water. In the UEA, despite having 5% of the worlds population, they only have access to 1% of the worlds fresh water reserves. They are only able to carry on as they are due to the huge desalination infrastructure they have set up that transforms saline water into fresh but people don't realise that is ridiculously expensive to do, uses up ridiculous amounts of energy and is extremely detrimental in terms of polution. Incredibly they can only do this as they have access to vast sums of oil, but what happens when their oil runs out?

Energy, food and water are going to be huge problems in the future and I honestly think water is going to be the biggest issue of the lot.

In the West, people get diarhea and its a embarrassing inconveniance, in parts of the developing world where people have no access to clean, sanitary water, diarhea can kill a person.

[Times Roman]

Whether there is only 35 years of oil reserves left or other wells not considered, the fact remains that this is a FINITE SOURCE of energy! Oil comes from the remains of prehistoric animals and plants and unless people are foolish to believe there was an infinite amount of those around 300-60 million years ago, they are in for a shock. And what does that tell you, that some people think we have used up hundreds of millions of years of hydrocarbons in as little as 160 years? Because much of the world has literally become so reliant and addicted to oil and the benefits it brings, transfering over to an alternative source of energy is going to be hugely problematic.

However, there are alternatives to oil. It's water people should be worried about. There is NO SUBSTITUTE for clean, fresh water. In the UEA, despite having 5% of the worlds population, they only have access to 1% of the worlds fresh water reserves. They are only able to carry on as they are due to the huge desalination infrastructure they have set up that transforms saline water into fresh but people don't realise that is ridiculously expensive to do, uses up ridiculous amounts of energy and is extremely detrimental in terms of polution. Incredibly they can only do this as they have access to vast sums of oil, but what happens when their oil runs out?

Energy, food and water are going to be huge problems in the future and I honestly think water is going to be the biggest issue of the lot.

In the West, people get diarhea and its a embarrassing inconveniance, in parts of the developing world where people have no access to clean, sanitary water, diarhea can kill a person.

it only takes (at least) ten thousand years to make oil, not millions as was once thought. which means there is probably a shit load of it out there.

(UAE is fabously wealthy. let em buy their water in bottles.)

Only pointing out what is already known. The fact remains that hydrocarbon based fuel sources are a dirty source of energy, and we need to switch to renewables.

[Flagg]

it only takes (at least) ten thousand years to make oil, not millions as was once thought. which means there is probably a shit load of it out there.

(UAE is fabously wealthy. let em buy their water in bottles.)

Only pointing out what is already known. The fact remains that hydrocarbon based fuel sources are a dirty source of energy, and we need to switch to renewables.

Well oil is detrimental in many ways and yes, I agree we need to switch to other renewable sustainable forms of energy. For instance, things like wind and hydro power is probably best for small island nations, where as solar power is the way to go for large land masses.

The problem is, tech like this is currently quite expensive and dependent quite heavily on the weather. I don't like the idea that a lot of nations will start switching to Nuclear as they realise they cannot rely on oil forever. Getting rid of nuclear waste has it's own problems and of course. And even the history of "nuclear" is pretty good in terms of accidents, the more stations that pop up, the greater the likelyhood that somethink like Chernobyl or Japan will occur elsewhere and it only takes ONE NUCLEAR ACCIDENT to cost a lot of lives and shitloads of money to fix again.

I don't think bio-fuel is a viable option either, but I fear this is something else that is going to be considered in the future. Bio-fuel will directly compete with agriculture for land and water which will lead to further land degredation and water depletion. Plus where we are uncertain what the climate will be like in 50 years time, I think being reliant on an energy source that could be affected by bad weather is not a good idea.

We need something clean but sustainable. That isn't something that can be achieved now, but something I think could be achieved later on. Wether that will be down to improving technolgical jumps or a changing of attitudes, I don't know, just that the next 90 years ahead is going to be tough for the human race.

[Twist]

The right conditions had to exist to create oil. It's not like everything becomes oil so all we have to do is drill deeper and deeper and everything that existed 10,000 years ago is now oil somewhere. The fact remains that our population is growing out of control, we rely on oil for this growth, oil is tied into every aspect of life, oil is a finite resource that is running out. If we run out sooner than expected we are screwed; well the poor/middle class are screwed.