Originally Posted by Kärnfysikern
Developing increasingly effective shields is dangerous other reasons aswell.
If any major power in the future where ever able to build a close to perfect shield with say 99% sucess rate, then it would make conventional large scale war betwen major powers a option again. I personaly prefer MAD over that. MAD has prevented war for 60 years.
One more danger is that it would be a hinder for further dismantling of nuclear weapons. If the US developes a shield, russia will certainly not dismantled their nukes down to the level of a couple of hundred. They will keep thousands just in case and if russia keeps thousands so will the US. We really dont need more roadblocks in dismantling nuclear weapons, anything that encourages the us and russia to keep more than a couple of hundred nukes each is bad in the long run.
But worst of all, it would encourage opponets to do a first strike, right now russia and I guess even china has enough nukes that they can take out all large cities in the us in a retaliation even if the us manages to take out a big chunk of the launch sites. If the us had a semi working missile shield russia or china would no longer be sure a second strike is enough. If we ever get into a cuban missile crisis situation again the first strike option would look all the more inevitable.
And its also almost always easier to make a better weapon than a better defence..