Nice stats - is that you in your avy??
Generally speaking, input needs to be greater than output in order to grow, so yes - caloric surplus. That said, you don't need much (not as much as people often think) - 200-300 cals over maintenance is usually plenty. Any more could lead to 'spill over' (fat), but of course we're all different, so you'll have to play with the numbers until you find your optimal point.
1 - why are you doing so much cardio? I mean, at 10% already - are you planning to complete and working to get really lean?
2 - TDEE should account for ALL activity, including added cardio. So, your TDEE is actually higher than you think.
The bolded is a HUGE generalization; I wouldn't pay any mind to blanket, absolute statements such as those. Our bodies are all different; some 'run' better on carbs, some better on fats. There is no right or wrong answer, only what is optimal for YOU as an individual. Unfortunately, the only way to really know is through trial and error. You'll learn plenty about your body in the process, though.
Personally, I'd say you're overthinking all of this. 40/40/20 is a good starting point for anybody. What you really need to do is monitor your progress meticulously and consistently, and make minor adjustments as you go along. That really is the only way. You'll eventually hit that groove, and you'll know when you do.
