Forex Trading

[marcus300]

Options in play today plus some barrier ones look like it may keep the range. Interesting stuff

I use these plus the weeks options plus bids and offers to plan a trade


imag

[marcus300]

I also use overbought oversold and watch where the big money is being placed and executed. Major buy orders are also appealing only if they are substantial enough and the market makers always collect their commissions so its all worth analysing

[Mr.BB]

What's your strategy mate

Oil is a messed up market, I see quite some similarities with crypto actually.

Betted on trump bluffing on Iran deal to gain leverage, like he did so many times now, guess it wasnt a bluff this time.

Still not closing my shorts, shale production will increase with this prices and all it needs is some news to come crumbling down. Also I never actually use large positions, so I can hold it.

[marcus300]

Oil is a messed up market, I see quite some similarities with crypto actually.

Betted on trump bluffing on Iran deal to gain leverage, like he did so many times now, guess it wasnt a bluff this time.

Still not closing my shorts, shale production will increase with this prices and all it needs is some news to come crumbling down. Also I never actually use large positions, so I can hold it.

Its always the same thing mate what knocks everything out and that's NEWS,
I do dip into gold or oil now and again but only when they are at their extremes either highest or lowest then I will take a position but I more or less keep with FX.

I'm in pain with one now, one of my longer term trade and its coming to a stage were I either hedge or get stopped out. Its a lot better when you take smaller positions and layer yourself into a solid trade medium term because risk can be defined and easily managed. I do like hedging though because you can have two bites at it, or its just delaying it while you try and manage out of it.

Like yesterday when I was losing on the E/U instead of taking my stop I took the U/J trade which was out of correlation with its counterpart and ran stops and picked up heavy bids, I knew its would have a good chance of coming back. But yes position sizing is a great way to keep yourself in the game and that's what its all about.

[marcus300]

Nice looking chart.

I do get very excited sometime when I look at charts lol

I see we have a lot of views, does anyone else do a bit on the side in FX?

[marcus300]

Big event day tomorrow


Calendar Thursday, May 10, 2018
All Day Holiday Finland - Ascension Day
All Day Holiday Norway - Ascension Day
All Day Holiday Sweden - Ascension Day
All Day Holiday Switzerland - Ascension Day
00:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance (Apr) -1% 0%
00:50 JPY Adjusted Current Account 1.63T 1.02T
00:50 JPY Bank Lending (YoY) (Apr) 1.9% 2.0%
00:50 JPY BoJ Summary of Opinions
00:50 JPY Current Account n.s.a. (Mar) 3.009T 2.076T
00:50 JPY Foreign Bonds Buying 950.3B
00:50 JPY Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks 480.4B
01:01 EUR Irish Consumer Confidence 108.1
02:00 AUD MI Inflation Expectations 3.6%
02:10 NZD RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
02:30 CNY CPI (MoM) (Apr) -0.1% -1.1%
02:30 CNY CPI (YoY) (Apr) 1.9% 2.1%
02:30 CNY PPI (YoY) (Apr) 3.4% 3.1%
04:00 KRW M2 Money supply (Mar) 6.80%
06:00 JPY Economy Watchers Current Index (Apr) 49.2 48.9
07:00 EUR Finnish Industry Output (MoM) (Mar) 3.4%
09:00 EUR Italian Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar) 2.4% 2.5%
09:00 EUR Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar) 0.4% -0.5%
09:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
09:30 GBP Construction Output (MoM) (Mar) -2.1% -1.6%
09:30 GBP U.K. Construction Output (YoY) (Mar) -5.7% -3.0%
09:30 GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar) 0.1% 0.1%
09:30 GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar) 3.1% 2.2%
09:30 GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Mar) 2.9% 2.5%
09:30 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Mar) -0.2% -0.2%
09:30 GBP Trade Balance (Mar) -11.20B -10.20B
09:30 GBP Trade Balance Non-EU (Mar) -2.24B
10:00 EUR Greek CPI (YoY) (Apr) -0.1% -0.2%
10:00 EUR Greek HICP (YoY) (Apr) 0.2%
10:00 EUR Greek Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar) -2.0%
10:00 EUR Greek Unemployment Rate (Feb) 20.6%
10:30 ZAR Gold Production (YoY) (Mar) -7.1%
10:30 ZAR Mining Production (Mar) -2.6% 3.1%
10:45 EUR Italian 12-Month BOT Auction -0.399%
11:00 EUR Irish CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.3%
11:00 EUR Irish CPI (YoY) (Apr) 0.2%
11:00 EUR Irish HICP (MoM) (Apr) 0.4%
11:00 EUR Irish HICP (YoY) (Apr) 0.5%
11:00 EUR Portuguese Trade Balance (Mar) -3.62B
12:00 GBP BoE Inflation Report
12:00 GBP BoE MPC vote cut (May) 0
12:00 GBP BoE MPC vote hike (May) 2 2
12:00 GBP BoE MPC vote unchanged (May) 7 7
12:00 GBP BoE QE Total 435B
12:00 GBP BoE QE Total (May) 435B 435B
12:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (May) 0.50% 0.50%
Tentative GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.2%
12:00 ZAR Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Mar) 0.1% -2.4%
13:00 BRL CPI (YoY) (Apr) 2.82% 2.68%
13:00 BRL CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.28% 0.09%
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 1,778K 1,756K
13:30 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% 0.2%
13:30 USD Core CPI (YoY) (Apr) 2.2% 2.1%
13:30 USD Core CPI Index (Apr) 256.20
13:30 USD CPI (YoY) (Apr) 2.5% 2.4%
13:30 USD CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.3% -0.1%
13:30 USD CPI Index, n.s.a. (Apr) 250.68 249.55
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 219K 211K
13:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 221.50K
13:30 USD Real Earnings (MoM) (Apr) -0.1% 0.4%
13:30 CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Mar) 0.0% -0.2%
14:45 USD Bloomberg Consumer Confidence 56.5
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 81B 62B
15:30 CAD BoC Review
16:00 USD Cleveland CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.3%
17:00 USD WASDE Report
18:00 USD 30-Year Bond Auction 3.044%
19:00 USD Federal Budget Balance (Apr) 201.2B -209.0B
23:30 NZD Business NZ PMI (Apr) 52.2
23:45 NZD FPI (MoM) (Apr)

[marcus300]

I've heard there are a lot of orders being placed for the GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision and MPI. Usually these numbers and decisions are leaked within 10-20 mins beforehand so its worth to watch the flow if your close to the screens.

[marcus300]

Fundamentals are a huge part of my trading. I use many methods to give me a higher % of a trade being successful.

[marcus300]

Going to close my screens for tonight. I'm knackered and nothing is ready for me. Might ne a big day tomorrow with news. Some options are in play aswell.

[marcus300]

Up early this morning

Sizable options

Heavy bids outweigh offers

Pre news lag

London open

Few pips to be made

Trade took

[marcus300]

The trade needs to be managed because coming through are a lot of bids and offers. The biggest option in play at the moment is the 1.1900 (2.4bn) so we have a layer of offers defending it but there seems to be a heavier side of bids.

Also the 2.4bn option strike is at the 100 MA

The red line is where the big option is and under it is a layer of offers being built to protect it. Looking at the bigger picture the bids seems to be more heavy so that's why I am going against the fundamentals of the EURO but what I will do is keep going long and short as the offers and bids are taken out. There is another big option but its far away at the moment and also news can wipe all the above out. The trade is on and this needs attention for further offers and bids to come in or some kind of stop run

[marcus300]

Price action around 80 level was heavy so I took all positions of the trade out at 76 and took 16 pips profit.

Happy with it so far and will re-enter either short or long depending on price action now near the options strike price

[marcus300]

Usually 3 attempts at a certain heavy resistance will either push past it or will fail, this is the time to trade accordingly

[marcus300]

Piggy backing the big bankers and making sure you get off in time is key,

also these types of trade are pretty solid when the news is low or not near but close to option expiry within the 2 hour window will be time to tell

[marcus300]

Some options have increased and a lot of money being traded today



My trade and breakdown of the trade this morning was perfect, there was a lot of heavy offers coming in around the 80 level which were stronger than the bids so I closed my trade and took the profit. I watched and it did what it was defended great and was some good 2 way action but I didn't take a short position like I said I would I just left it but I should of because the price action was perfect. Bids came in stronger around the 60 ish level and made another run for it but I still stayed out but my break-down was correct and it was a good battle going on and still is. The more times the price hits the offers they get taken out and the defence is weaker that's if the bids are still stronger, that's what occurred now.
I'll post the chart below which is the 1hr chart and you can see what happened. Bids are strong at the moment and the offers are weaker but they are still layered right into the strike price.



If you came down to the 5 min chart you would see the price action and match them up to the offers, big offers create a bigger price fill which will have an effect on the price. You can also see the correlation between the e/u and u/j and trade accordingly once it goes out of sink. It always springs back into line just like when offers and bids are taken out of a price as been overbought or oversold. Its the elastic band effect it cant carry on going it needs to come back to the mean price.

[marcus300]

Been to busy to post but heavily involved today.

Had a losing trade today

If anyone is interested in how i managed this with a method a use frequently just let me know and I'll write it up but will be tomorrow still busy.

Its interesting and learn the most from losing about yourself than winning. I halfed my loss because still had conviction but i was busy while managing it.

Anyway anyone interested in losing trades or anything you'd like to how i look at the market from the basic to advance I'll try and answer

[Bio-Active]

Thanks for jumping in here and i am really enjoying reading up on Forex

[marcus300]

Couldn't post much yesterday due to being busy with many things but let me talk you through a trade I took, the reason why and how I managed it even though it was a losing trade

Huge option again at 11900 2.4bln

read up on all the news I was sent some offers and bids what were being put on the market. Checked and it looked like the option was going to be attacked with force so I was looking for a short towards to large option which expires at 3pm my time.

Took at a trade at 11926, it had the 200ms above at around 11936 so it had beautiful cover, I kind of knew it may run to the moving average but didn't want to miss my entry so got in at 11926 with a stop at 11942. Reason why stop was above the 200MA just incase it ran some stops but I had a high conviction the offers were strong enough to keep on pushing towards the options because the bids weren't that strong so I went with the higher% trade of winning.

This was a day trade and my take profit was around 11905 but was open to adjustment as the trade unfolded - my only problem I was to busy to sit infront of my trading desk and watch this so had to have alerts on my phone at certain positions so I could mobile manage it.

Weaker usd news came out which is something you cant control when in these trades and I knew it was around but was hoping the strength of the option would drive the traders to the strike price before or close to expiry. Anyway the price went higher so I had a few options I could take as it was approaching my stop I could either let it stop me out and or hedge the trade, so seeing that I was mobile and could look at my screens I decided to hedge my trade at 11940 and took my stop off. Bids were coming is heavy so I knew this was going to be pushed higher , also now the 200 moving average is being used as support because of the weaker $.

So now I have 2 trades and my loss is locked at 14 pips but hedged, so loss isn't taken yet.

Hedge at 11940 - bids are heavy and strong so was waiting for weaker price action to take the hedge off and manage my losing trade. so price went higher and price action was slowing down so took my hedge off at 11950, which was too soon IMHO but banked my hedge of 10pips. At this stage I need the trade to reverse into my previous trade to help with the loss.

Price action was doing ok and price reversed so I took my first trade off at 11938

Total = first trade loss from 26 to 38 = 12 pips loss
hedge won = 10 pips
loss 2pips

If I wouldn't of hedge my trade my stop would of been hit and took me for a loss of 16 pips, instead it was only 2 pips

If I was in front of my screen I would of made money because the price did reverse lower and my hedge did drive higher so it would of been better but I was happy with 2 pip loss instead of 16 pips.
beauty of managing a trade via hedging.


Ive done the chart so you can is it through the chart. If there is anything you don't understand just ask I will try my best to explain but I am no expert but will try and show and explain anything ive said

[marcus300]

Nothing of much interest for the markets to open tonight. Got my eye on a few thing's so will see how things go pre London open in the morning.

Got some medium term trades still open so will see how things go in the morning with news.

[marcus300]

Up early scanning the market's
Usd
Euro
Both look interesting

Very busy today but will be putting some time in to see if there is a trade this week.

[marcus300]

There're some serious bids on all usd currencies by big players.

[marcus300]

My analysis and information what i received was really good yesterday, but didnt take a trade on it because i was busy with other thing's.
Frustrating but good to know i was correct. I'm busy again but will keep an eye out for anything filtering though.
My medium term trades are still live and doing better than they were.

[Mr.BB]

What happened to USD??

[marcus300]

What happened to USD??

I didn't take the trade just announcing the news of the bigger players taking longer term positions.
It was again excellent info which made the price react to the heavy layered bids all day. Price moved off the bids every time they went through but you never know if it's a false move to release other positions. Price action should dictate to the strength of the moves.

Took a trade this morning will update soon

[marcus300]

1st trade
I got some orders come through this morning and looking at both sides the weight was top heavy especially when you added the big options loading up on the euro, but at this time the price wasn't at a tradeable value. Some news hit which wasn't going to be a great price mover but the reaction of the price when it hit was weak so it sent the price down to some heavy bids loading up. We were near a round number, heavy bids coming in, a false move driving the price down and options top heavy so I waited till the price action was going weaker and bought the euro. When your trading offers, bids and options you have to be really at your trading desk but i was mobile. I took 15 pips and closed the trade even though at the time i thought it was worth alot more.

2nd trade
Opened another long at a crucial point but because i wasn't at my desk I couldn't really see what was coming and I couldn't manage it right and some news hit, the usually central banker voicing an opinion sent my trade off, I had my stop in place but took it off and hedged my position.- still losing

3rd trade
London close trade on the same pair - took another 20 pips on the run so close it off

2 winners one loser but unable to manage it correctly due to being out so the loser is still running so not sure if i will close it off or let it run yet so cant say it was a good day until I close the loss out but at this moment in time we not doing well on the day but we are hedged in waiting

[Mr.BB]

Pfff, dont have time for this now.

Some heavy bids before WS open, was looking for news but there was nothing significant.

[marcus300]

1st trade
I got some orders come through this morning and looking at both sides the weight was top heavy especially when you added the big options loading up on the euro, but at this time the price wasn't at a tradeable value. Some news hit which wasn't going to be a great price mover but the reaction of the price when it hit was weak so it sent the price down to some heavy bids loading up. We were near a round number, heavy bids coming in, a false move driving the price down and options top heavy so I waited till the price action was going weaker and bought the euro. When your trading offers, bids and options you have to be really at your trading desk but i was mobile. I took 15 pips and closed the trade even though at the time i thought it was worth alot more.

2nd trade
Opened another long at a crucial point but because i wasn't at my desk I couldn't really see what was coming and I couldn't manage it right and some news hit, the usually central banker voicing an opinion sent my trade off, I had my stop in place but took it off and hedged my position.- still losing

3rd trade
London close trade on the same pair - took another 20 pips on the run so close it off

2 winners one loser but unable to manage it correctly due to being out so the loser is still running so not sure if i will close it off or let it run yet so cant say it was a good day until I close the loss out but at this moment in time we not doing well on the day but we are hedged in waiting

Finished the trades and took a loss, it was doing ok on the retracement and closed my hedge but the euro still looked weak and the order board wasn't looking like many bids were being taken and the offers were stronger and more heavy so pulled out. Its fine because you learn that with these types of trade you need to manage them on your screen instead of mobile, would be different if it was a medium term or swing trade but just cut it off and took the loss.

Hey and guess what as soon as I took my hedge off and was closing out things started filtering through that there was some buying and some fresh bids were being placed lol typical but still got some trades open on my swing so will see what happens. Might take another trade today at London close

[marcus300]

Very much news driven today which doesnt match my way of trading (unless medium term trades) so stayed out even though i had alot of stuff sent to me i haven't of yet taken a trade today.

Still very busy to really concentrate on this at the moment I'm always looking

Mrbb
You still in oil ? Are you long or short

[Mr.BB]

Mrbb
You still in oil ? Are you long or short

Short

[Obs]

Bb, marcus...

This thread is sucking all the intelligence out of the forum as the only two intelligent people are posting in here only.

I have reported the thread. Hopefully admin will close it.

[Bio-Active]

Bb, marcus...

This thread is sucking all the intelligence out of the forum as the only two intelligent people are posting in here only.

I have reported the thread. Hopefully admin will close it.

No....

[Obs]

No....

Lol! See, now bio is in here!

[marcus300]

Short

I was speaking to another trader yesterday and he's under water with his oil short but is still building positions. Hopefully some positive news for you will be coming over the next few days

Bb, marcus...

This thread is sucking all the intelligence out of the forum as the only two intelligent people are posting in here only.

I have reported the thread. Hopefully admin will close it.

hahaha I doubt anything in here is intelligent Obs, rather the opposite if you take a step back and think about it. Did you know that the retail trader goes by the 90 90 90 by the studies what have been done. That's 90% of traders will lose 90% of the account in 90 days. This is new retail traders so if us retail traders are suppose to be extremely risk averse when looking at taking a trade why would we come into the world of Forex I wouldn't say that's intelligent mate.

No....

Thanks Bio


Really super busy so that's why I cant post charts or much what I am doing, even though the last 2 days have been quiet for me I would still post up my analysis of currencies what I am interested in or coming into a range.

I still have some open positions on the market but I'm not that confident with certain things and that's why I wont be taking a trade today unless I get some good solid information which puts probability in the higher end numbers. If I'm not behind my screens with anything I would say as short term trading I get nervous because I cant manage the trades. I'm not a trader who sets and sticks to his TP (take profit) I will manage the trade as I go along. Sometimes if its coming to my TP I will if it starts to get weaker and PA is not looking good I will hedge the trade and try my best to get some extra pips with the retracement plus also locking in my profit coming up to me TP.

Its Friday and usually I always take a trade at the London close if any of the currencies are out of its range or oversold or overbought. Its something what I come back to all the time because its been a solid trade for so many years. Can't post any charts of this because I haven't got time but I will in future to let you all understand my meaning behind this trade and why its such a good solid trade for building your account up with.

[marcus300]

Just been sent some order board stuff what happening now and in the last few mins and there seems to be a healthy amount of activity in the euro camp but the weight ( more money) is being placed on the bids side so my reading is that the reaction will be higher. Not checked the price to see if its reacting but if this info keeps coming through it will be worth a trade, but if the info changes and it does it can change sides very quickly because sometimes the bids are only a play to execute their own open positions and push the price to a certain area so there is more availability.

[marcus300]

Bids are the defence of the option rolling off today, so there is going to be a very good two way action for traders because the attackers wont give up but neither will the defenders.

[marcus300]

[marcus300]

Looks like it was a good two battle with the news helping the sellers win the early session. I did get some information through from a friend but I was busy and couldnt get behind my desk so couldnt react on it. My longer term trades are under water this week but I live to trade another day.

[Obs]

hahaha I doubt anything in here is intelligent Obs, rather the opposite if you take a step back and think about it. Did you know that the retail trader goes by the 90 90 90 by the studies what have been done. That's 90% of traders will lose 90% of the account in 90 days. This is new retail traders so if us retail traders are suppose to be extremely risk averse when looking at taking a trade why would we come into the world of Forex I wouldn't say that's intelligent mate.

I was only joking but I feel dumb as hell in here. I know I should grow accustomed to the feeling but...
I always feel suprised.

[marcus300]

I was only joking but I feel dumb as hell in here. I know I should grow accustomed to the feeling but...
I always feel suprised.

Like you say you should over time feel accustomed to the feeling but i do understand why you don't

[Obs]

Like you say you should over time ferl accustomed to the feeling but i do understand why you don't

I need conversation with some real men. Boda kill the ones around me. Half drunk and getting angry.
I appreciate you and your personality you cunt.
Fucking agree or not at least you are a man and an individual, not a follower.