U.S. report: Iran stopped nuclear weapons work in 2003

[Kärnfysikern]

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/...ear/index.html

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Iran halted work toward a nuclear weapon under international scrutiny in 2003 and is unlikely to be able to produce enough enriched uranium for a bomb until 2010 to 2015, a U.S. intelligence report says.

A declassified summary of the latest National Intelligence Estimate found with "high confidence" that the Islamic republic stopped an effort to develop nuclear weapons in the fall of 2003.

The estimate is less severe than a 2005 report that judged the Iranian leadership was "determined to develop nuclear weapons despite its international obligations and international pressure."

But the latest report says Iran -- which declared its ability to produced enriched uranium for a civilian energy program in 2006 -- could reverse that decision and eventually produce a nuclear weapon if it wanted to do so.

Enriched uranium at low concentrations can be used to fuel nuclear power plants, but much higher concentrations are needed to yield a nuclear explosion.

"We judge with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon is late 2009, but that this is very unlikely," the report says. A more likely time frame for that production is between 2010 and 2015, it concludes.

Iran has insisted its nuclear program is strictly aimed at producing electricity, and the country has refused the U.N. Security Council's demand to halt its enrichment program.

Monday's report represents the consensus of U.S. intelligence agencies. It suggests that a combination of "threats of intensified international scrutiny and pressures, along with opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige and goals for regional influence in other ways," could persuade the Iranian leadership to continue its suspension of nuclear weapons research.

Available intelligence suggests the Iranian leadership is guided "by a cost-benefit approach," not a headlong rush to develop a bomb, the report concludes.

The International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, has reported that Iran is cooperating with inspectors by providing access to declared nuclear material, documents and facilities. However, the agency also said Iran is withholding information in other areas, and as a result, the IAEA's knowledge about the status of the program is "diminishing."

Iran says its uranium enrichment work is allowed under the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty. The Security Council has passed two rounds of sanctions against Tehran, but Washington missed its goal of reaching consensus on tighter restrictions by the end of November, the State Department said last week.

U.S. National Security adviser Stephen Hadley expressed hope after Monday's announcement, but he said Iran remains a serious threat.

"The estimate offers grounds for hope that the problem can be solved diplomatically -- without the use of force -- as the administration has been trying to do," Hadley said in a statement.

"But the intelligence also tells us that the risk of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon remains a very serious problem."

The report comes amid widespread accusations that the Bush administration is attempting to maneuver the United States into a conflict with Iran, which it accuses of meddling in the war in Iraq. In October, the United States designated elements of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps as supporters of terrorism.

NIEs examine current capabilities and vulnerabilities and, perhaps more importantly, consider future developments. Policymakers usually request the estimates, but the intelligence community also can initiate them.

[eliteforce]

good that official US propaganda is saying that, now they don't have to launch a disasterous war; unofficial US propaganda like fox and cnn will run the story and shut everyone up about starting a war..

of cource the reality is Iran is producing nuclear warheads like cupcakes and loading them into startegic delivery systems like their new domestically produced sub as they continue to test longer range missiles.

[Logan13]

good that official US propaganda is saying that, now they don't have to launch a disasterous war; unofficial US propaganda like fox and cnn will run the story and shut everyone up about starting a war..

of cource the reality is Iran is producing nuclear warheads like cupcakes and loading them into startegic delivery systems like their new domestically produced sub as they continue to test longer range missiles.

no one will wait until 2010 to do something about this, regardless of who is in office.

[Johny-too-small]

good that official US propaganda is saying that, now they don't have to launch a disasterous war; unofficial US propaganda like fox and cnn will run the story and shut everyone up about starting a war..

of cource the reality is Iran is producing nuclear warheads like cupcakes and loading them into startegic delivery systems like their new domestically produced sub as they continue to test longer range missiles.

Why are you so in love with Iran?

[Tock]

of cource the reality is Iran is producing nuclear warheads like cupcakes and loading them into startegic delivery systems like their new domestically produced sub as they continue to test longer range missiles.

Sixteen US spy agencies say they aren't "producing nuclear warheads like cupcakes." What information do you have that they don't have that tells you Iran is building nuclear warheads?
A ouija board?

[eliteforce]

my post didn't indicate a love for iran; i'm stateing my perception of whats going on..

Why are you so in love with Iran?

[RA]

Hes not just talking about that one particular post.

my post didn't indicate a love for iran; i'm stateing my perception of whats going on..

[Dagron]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mid...st/7126422.stm


Iran welcomes US nuclear report
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visits Natanz enrichment facility
Iran says it will continue uranium enrichment despite sanctions
Iran has welcomed a major US intelligence report that suggests its government is not currently trying to develop nuclear weapons.

The latest National Intelligence Estimate says it is now believed Iran stopped its weapons programme in 2003.

Tehran has always maintained its nuclear programme is being developed purely for peaceful purposes.

But the US and other Western powers say Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapons capability.

Iran is currently under UN Security Council and unilateral US sanctions.

But the BBC News website's world affairs correspondent, Paul Reynolds, says the question of sanctions remains active because Iran is still defying Security Council calls for it to suspend uranium enrichment.

The confrontation is now likely to continue indefinitely but at a lower temperature, he says.

Iran's 'victory'

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said he welcomed the change of opinion.


Natanz uranium enrichment facility, Iran

Report frustrates US hawks
US report cools crisis
Should US change policy?

"It's natural that we welcome it when those countries who in the past have questions and ambiguities about this case... now amend their views realistically," he said.

Iranian state TV hailed the report as a "victory". It said Iran was "honest" and had been "vindicated", while it said the report demonstrated flaws in US intelligence.

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, said the new intelligence "should help to defuse the current crisis".

But he said that although the agency had no evidence of an ongoing Iranian nuclear weapons programme, Iran should still clarify some aspects of its past and present nuclear activities.

Hawks' concerns

Earlier US Democrats called for a major policy rethink in the light of the NIE report.

However, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said it was vital to continue US-led efforts to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak took issue with the report, saying Iran had probably restarted its suspected weapons programme.


Can you legitimately defend yourself against something that does not exist and might never exist?
BBC North America editor Justin Webb

Read Justin's thoughts in full
In quotes: Report reaction

"It seems Iran in 2003 halted for a certain period of time its military nuclear programme but as far as we know it has probably since renewed it," he told Israeli radio.

Reports of this kind were "made in an environment of high uncertainty", he added.

The BBC's Justin Webb in Washington says US hawks are horrified by the report.

They are concerned that news of that key assessment will drown out other findings in the document - for instance, that Tehran is keeping open its option to develop a nuclear weapon and would have all the capacity to do so in the future if its leaders decided to go ahead.

US National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley said the report's findings confirmed the US was "right to be worried" about Iran's nuclear ambitions and that President George W Bush had "the right strategy".

'Technical problems'

The declassified summary of the report, which draws together information from the 16 US intelligence agencies, says with "high confidence" that Iran stopped its nuclear weapons programme in 2003 "in response to international pressure".


READ THE FINDINGS

National Intelligence Estimate on Iran[25kb]
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The assessment says with "moderate confidence" that the programme has not restarted.

This is a turnaround from previous assessments, when US intelligence agencies believed Iran was trying to develop a nuclear weapon.

Iran made "significant progress" in 2007 installing gas centrifuges used to enrich uranium but still faced technical problems operating them, the report said.

It concludes that the country is not likely to have enough highly enriched uranium to build a bomb until 2010-2015.

[Dagron]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7126117.stm


Iran report frustrates US hawks
By Adam Brookes
BBC News, Washington

In an abrupt change of position, the US intelligence agencies now say they do not know if Iran intends to build a nuclear weapon.

Natanz uranium enrichment facility, Iran
The report says Iran may still face problems enriching uranium

The unclassified version of a new National Intelligence Estimate, or NIE, released on Monday, said that Iran was "less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005".

In May 2005, the intelligence community had said "with high confidence" that Iran was "determined" to build nuclear weapons.

The new NIE confirms that Iran did, indeed, have an illicit nuclear weapons programme.

But it says that programme ceased operating in 2003 and, as of mid-2007, had probably not started up again. The NIE asserts that the weapons programme was dropped because of international pressure.

It says that US intelligence estimates - with "moderate-to-high confidence" - that Iran currently does not currently have a nuclear weapon.

The NIE affirms, however, that Iran continues its efforts to enrich uranium.

The document estimates that the very earliest Iran could produce enough highly-enriched uranium (HEU) for a weapon would be late 2009, but some time between 2010 and 2015 is more likely.

In an interesting note of dissent, the state department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research does not think enough HEU for a weapon could be produced until 2013.

Intelligence gaps

In all, the new NIE argues that Iran's intentions may be less threatening than US intelligence previously thought.

And it strongly suggests large gaps in the Americans' knowledge of exactly what the Iranian programme is capable of.

But the document emphasises that Iran continues to build a capacity which could be turned to nuclear weapons production in the future.

"Iranian entities are continuing to build a range of technical capabilities that could be applied to producing nuclear weapons, if a decision is made to do so," it reads.

Iran continues to insist that its programme is for civilian purposes.

The Bush administration welcomed the NIE, even though it might be seen to contradict the administration's warnings about the gravity of the Iranian threat.

The National Security Adviser, Stephen Hadley, said the report showed that the risk of Iran's acquiring a nuclear weapon remained a "very serious problem".

Mr Hadley said that the NIE showed that the US had the "right strategy" in pressuring Iran to suspend its entire nuclear programme, while offering to negotiate.

His statements suggest that the new NIE will not engender any profound shift in policy on the part of the Bush administration, and that Washington will continue to push for a new round of UN sanctions against Iran.

Complicating factor

But Washington analysts were predicting that the intelligence community's new position would complicate the effort to bring about a new UN Security Council Resolution imposing sanctions.

Such a resolution was still within reach, they said, simply because Iran has not complied with demands to suspend uranium enrichment.

But, they said, the US will be hard put to maintain a sense of urgency following the release of the new NIE.

However, the new NIE will make it harder for proponents of military action against Iran to argue their case.

One source, who has close links to US intelligence, said that members of Vice President Dick Cheney's staff continued to call for military strikes against Iran "on a daily basis".

Senior military officers and intelligence officials are understood to have grave reservations about an attack on Iran - not least because it would be unclear how a military confrontation with Iran could be brought to a conclusion.

[Dagron]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7126429.stm


US report cools crisis on Iran
By Paul Reynolds
BBC world affairs correspondent

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad pictured last month
Iran will claim the NIE report as a victory, say analysts

The US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran has acted like a safety valve, letting off the steam that had been building up over a possible American military attack.

It is also likely to make it more difficult to significantly increase international sanctions.

Russia and China in particular might argue that Iran is contained for the moment.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin remarked the other day that there was no "concrete evidence" that Iran was building a bomb and his judgment is now accepted by the US intelligence report.

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency Mohamed ElBaradei had also expressed a similar opinion.

'Astounding'

"This is an astounding conclusion," said Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

"The assessment in 2005 that Iran had a nuclear weapons programme was based on evidence from a hard drive handed over by defector.

George W Bush at White House in May 2006
George W Bush says Iran is building nuclear weapons

"Since then Western intelligence agencies have tried to find out if Iran had continued with that programme. In fact, they have decided that it did not.

"This is a new and important development. It removes any possibility of a military strike in the next year. There would be no substantive cause and no public support.

"It also shows that lessons have been learned from Iraq. The US intelligence agencies are determined to show their independence from political influence."

Sanctions still possible

The question of sanctions remains an active one, however, because Iran is still defying the UN Security Council over its enrichment of uranium.

As the NIE pointed out, Iran is still developing one of the key elements of building nuclear weapons.

The debate among Security Council members is reaching another decisive point.

Bushehr nuclear reactor
Iran will claim the NIE report as a victory, say analysts

The US, France and the UK have urged much tougher economic measures, including boycotts of Iran's oil and gas industry, the source of its income.

But neither Russia nor China look set to go that far.

China in particular has investments in Iran's energy fields that it needs to fuel its economic development.

If the Security Council fails to act, Britain and France will probably ask the EU to follow the US in taking unilateral measures, especially the reduction or cutting off of export credits to Iran.

But again, if the heat is off following the NIE report, some EU countries that export heavily to Iran might be reluctant to go as far as they otherwise might have.

Iran wins?

So does this mean that Iran has essentially won?

It will certainly be seen that way in Iran.

The Iranian government seems to prefer to live with sanctions than to give up what it has projected to its people as a national symbol of modernisation and independence.

The NIE judgment is very much in line with the views of those who thought Iran had probably not decided whether to build nuclear weapons (and after all, it always said that it did not intend to do so) but was keeping its options open for the future.

The prospect now is for the standoff to continue indefinitely but at a much lower temperature.

[Dagron]

Draw your own conclusions from that, but it sounds to me as if they are not developing nuclear weapons. The entire point may soon be moot, though, as there are discussions at the latest GCC summit regarding a shared nuclear technology program amongst everyone in the region. Although it's not nearly the only thing on the docket, it is still interesting to say the least.

[***xxx***]

Sixteen US spy agencies say they aren't "producing nuclear warheads like cupcakes." What information do you have that they don't have that tells you Iran is building nuclear warheads?
A ouija board?

I think even that wouldnt help him to believe...

[Dagron]

The most frustrating part about this intelligence leak is that our spy agencies KNEW they weren't producing nukes, yet we were pushing for war with these cats over these purported nuclear weapons. Disgusting.

[Kärnfysikern]

of cource the reality is Iran is producing nuclear warheads like cupcakes and loading them into startegic delivery systems like their new domestically produced sub as they continue to test longer range missiles.

Well I think the only thing obvious is that you have a vivid imagination but a lack of insight into how damn hard it acctualy is to develop a nuclear weapon. Especialy one nice and tight enough to fit into a missile.

[Johny-too-small]

Well I think the only thing obvious is that you have a vivid imagination but a lack of insight into how damn hard it acctualy is to develop a nuclear weapon. Especialy one nice and tight enough to fit into a missile.

Exactly....

[eliteforce]

There have been several threads over the past few years about Irans nuclear program and so rather than rehash that every month you can just read what i posted there..

don't get me wrong, nobody is more against a war with iran than i am, but at the same time i don't beleive for a second that Iran doesn't already have an arsenal of nuclear weapons or that they havn't developed them in secret.

The US 'intelligence' agencys have proven themselves to be politically motivated..when they want to go to war, they tell you this[iraq] country has 'wmd' and it is a strategic threat, when they don't they tell you this[iran] country doesn't have 'wmd' and it is not a strategic threat.

Everyone wants you to think Iran has no nuclear weapons:
Israel: Doesn't want to scare it's people off or prevent potential foreign ineterests from coming or investing in their country.
Iran: Hopes to avoid sanctions and integrate into the world economy, doesn't want to scare 'fence' countries like Russia, China, India.
USA: Painted itself into a corner by insisting that it would attack iran if iran continued nuclear work, particularly enrichment; iran did this anyways and the Americans realized that a war with iran would be disasterous to it's military in iraq, the world economy, and that they have no regional support for military action vs iran. so now they are painting themselves out of a corner.

Lets take a look at 2 pieces of military hardware that Iran has recently developed:
* Fajr-3: This is a multiple warhead targeting baliistic missile, such missiles are specifically designed for nuclear weapons and in this case it is designed to counter Israels ARROW defense system, ARROW goes after the decoy, the real bomb gets through.
* Irans new domesticallt produced submarine: This is not a small attack sub meant to hunt around the persian gulf, this is a large strategic submarine-the purpose of these types of submarines is to go far away and 'hide' .. jst in case someone blows your country away while you were sailing, well they still have to worry about this thing popping up anywhere 1500 miles off your coast and spitting out 30 or so nukes.

I find it odd that a country that has no nuclear weapons and has no intension of developing them, designes and produces at great expense systems specifically designed for them.

Can anyone really blame the Iranians for wanting to have a deterent when the typical American on this forum thinks it's ok to occupy iraq forever at the cost of trillions of dollars and many 100,000s of Iraqi lives, or that it's ok to destroy a country and it's people just to steal their natural resources, or a general loathing of muslims in general or justification of extreme oppresive measures against palestinians..etc.etc.etc.etc.

[thegodfather]

All speculation aside....we should require at least some degree of concrete proof before going to war with a country. You do not goto war on a wim, and you certainly do not wage a war based on 'speculation.' So until a credible intelligence report can come out showing at least some form of tangible evidence one way or the other, I stand undecided on the issue.

[***xxx***]

bush said yesterday that even though the us intelligence knew about it since august he learned about it last week. man, I d kick some asses if this would be true. on the other hand it s good to know that even tho you re spending hundred of billions in intelligence, surveilling of your own ppl, and all the other nazi 1984 crap, basic and important info is still not reaching the "highest authority". thats hilarious

[Johny-too-small]

It would be a relief if we actually had some factual rhetoric in these threads, instead of reading the same posts over and over only in different threads.

[Dagron]

You guys really believe for one second that Bush didn't know about this? He knew damned well and is making a pathetic attempt at CYA. If they knew and still pushed for war with Iran, what does that tell you? Cui Bono anyone?

[RA]

This is a low level low security report. Bush gets daily briefings from the CIA..which one do you think is more accurate.

bush said yesterday that even though the us intelligence knew about it since august he learned about it last week. man, I d kick some asses if this would be true. on the other hand it s good to know that even tho you re spending hundred of billions in intelligence, surveilling of your own ppl, and all the other nazi 1984 crap, basic and important info is still not reaching the "highest authority". thats hilarious

[mcpeepants]

Sixteen US spy agencies say they aren't "producing nuclear warheads like cupcakes." What information do you have that they don't have that tells you Iran is building nuclear warheads?
A ouija board?

I see Iran wanting both nuclear energy and weapons for very legitimate reasons. They want nuclear power because it clean and they will be able to sell more of the oil and natural gas instead of using it for domestic consumption. Nuclear weapons would give it a deterrent against the US. Plus it not like Iran can't hide in research in nukes. We only knew about the Natanz nuclear facilities in Iran after a dissident blew the whistle on it.

[Logan13]

I find it hesterical that many of you are running towards this Intelligence simply becuase of your politics. Were this intel to say the complete opposite, you would not be embracing it. This is, after all, one of the same agencies that thought Saddam had WMDs..............
hypocrisy...........

[Johny-too-small]

In a couple months, there will be intel reports saying Iran is building bombs...trust me.

[RA]

Ehud Barak, Israeli defense minister
In an interview Tuesday with Israeli Army Radio:
"It is apparently true that in 2003, Iran stopped pursuing its military nuclear program for a certain period of time, but in our estimation, since then it is apparently continuing with its program.

[RA]

Does anyone on here honestly think Iran is not actively seeking nukes?

[Johny-too-small]

^^nope

[celticd]

when are we going to get down to the real and serious issue of disarming all countries of nuclear weapons?
not this nonsense of decommissioning old nuclear weapons to make a good impression in the wider community,lets get rid of the lot
they have nothing to offer us in this day and age!! actually never have
i understand the usa aint gona talk to iran directly so lets get russia on board to help thrash this serious issue out and fast
its a rat race to the bottom were theres no winners

[Kärnfysikern]

when are we going to get down to the real and serious issue of disarming all countries of nuclear weapons?
not this nonsense of decommissioning old nuclear weapons to make a good impression in the wider community,lets get rid of the lot
they have nothing to offer us in this day and age!! actually never have
i understand the usa aint gona talk to iran directly so lets get russia on board to help thrash this serious issue out and fast
its a rat race to the bottom were theres no winners

Couldnt agree more.

Maby there is still some hope, most people dont want nuclear weapons.
http://www.thebulletin.org/roundtabl...apon-movement/
Quote from the article
According to a September 2007 survey conducted by the University of Maryland's Center for International and Security Studies, 63 percent of Russians favor eliminating all nuclear weapons, 59 percent support removing all nuclear weapons from high alert, and 53 percent support cutting the Russian and U.S. nuclear arsenals to 400 nuclear weapons each. In the United States, 73 percent of the public favors eliminating all nuclear weapons, 64 percent support removing all nuclear weapons from high alert, and 59 percent support reducing Russian and U.S. nuclear arsenals to 400 weapons each. Eighty percent of Russians and Americans want their countries to participate in the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.

[Kärnfysikern]

I find it hesterical that many of you are running towards this Intelligence simply becuase of your politics. Were this intel to say the complete opposite, you would not be embracing it. This is, after all, one of the same agencies that thought Saddam had WMDs..............
hypocrisy...........

If it said the opposit would you be sceptical or embrace it?

[Logan13]

If it said the opposit would you be sceptical or embrace it?

I accept the intelligence, as I accepted the Iraq WMD intelligence. Many of those who are embracing this intelligence are the same ones who have been pointing out flawed intelligence in regards to Iraq over the last 4 years. Hypocrisy.........

[Kärnfysikern]

Well I have never bothered to look into the Iraq mess. But it doesnt sound like the intelligence that triggered the war was all that solid?

[Logan13]

Well I have never bothered to look into the Iraq mess. But it doesnt sound like the intelligence that triggered the war was all that solid?

OK, so what makes this intelligence "all that solid"?

[Kärnfysikern]

OK, so what makes this intelligence "all that solid"?

Have I stated somewhere that it is .

But imo it seems solid because I have never heard one expert on nuclear weapons claim that Iran is close to a nuclear weapon. Most often they say "iran is x years away from a bomb" where x is usualy a number larger than 5. Everyone except Israel seems to agree that Iran is either not close to a weapon or not even developing one.