Iranian President claims 9/11 a lie...

[FranciscoG]

Niether of the three links works.

I disagree with the point that Israel would be able to take down all of the Iranian sites or destroy the Iranian program. Far from it. I also disagree with many who think that it would be a cake walk.

I do agree that Israel won´t do any of the fighting and try to get us to do it.

[Kratos]

all three work for me
first is about saudi arabia letting Israel overfly in attack on iran
second is about a new fleet of drone aircraft israel has that can reach iran
third is about a flight drill involving more than 100 f-16 and f-15 fighters going an equal distance as iran.

and yes, I think israel wants us involved and doing a good bit of their bidding.

it will be no cake walk, but israel could take out the nuclear sites on their own
like I said we'll get f-ed by the whole thing and occupation will be more costly then Iraq
also the world oil market will be a mess with the whole region in conflict

I do not support any US military action on Iran. We will pay huge.
If Israel wants to go it alone, cut them loose.

This administration is not as much a friend to israel as bush, and that's a good thing.

[Kratos]

what do you think the political cost will be for the US though if Iran is hit by Israel and they travel through Iraqi airspace?

Clearly we could stop them if we wanted. I doubt we would shoot down Israeli planes though.

Wouldn't we be guilty by letting it happen?

That's a problem in not backing them, no? Guilt by lack of action.

[Kratos]

I will add, I think an attack is only an outside possibility.
Israel would loose seveal aircraft to iran...is likely to only set back iran a few years in their nuclear program as some of the facilities are underground and difficult to damage even with bunker busting bombs.

the political costs would be huge for israel, and support worldwide would tank.

what I'm saying is the possibility that the US could find itself in another middle east war is a scary prospect, not that it's imminent or extremely likely.

If israel had it's way, we'd be hitting Iran tomorrow though.

[FranciscoG]

Politically?

Making an assumption that the Saudi´s allow air space usage?

Assuming Iran has cruise missles and other missles and would use them? The distruction of the saudi oil fields. The release of mines in the Persian Gulf. 55% of the world´s oil would come to a holt. Syria, Iran´s ally, would shut of the Iraqi pipeline as it did during the Iran/Iraq war. Prices for regular 87 oct gas would tripple at the pump or more.

Iran doing what Iran does would unleash hezbollah.

Afgan inserguents would get the same if not better weapons as hezbollah has. This included the shoulder fired weapons that take down Apaches and so on. The Afgani war would be stepped up.

Southern Iraq, well we all know what would happen there.

Political and economic view would not be good.

look back on Israeli preperations for this so called air raid, lets even assume they knew where all the sites were and could take them all out, the preperations have been talked about for 3 years now. Why do you think thye do not do them. I read an interesting article last week about the feeling in Israel, majority felt that Iran could not be stopped by Israel for many reasons.

Also take into account Israel only has conventional air power. They do not have a ******* power. The Russian supplied S-400 systems are no joke.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-300_(missile)

Conventional air power is a technology of the 1930s. F-16 and F-18 are 30+ year-old technology as well.

I am not sure how effective they would be against the Russian supplied air defense system. For sure we know Israel has not done what it said it was going to do against Iran. There must be a reason for that.

[FranciscoG]

S t e a l t h

[Kratos]

I think they would be ineffective and foolish to attack without the US.

But that's not to say they wouldn't do it anyway.

And yes, iran would use SAMs to destroy many fighters with a good deal of success.

I think the Saudi's are going to let them use air space just to see it happen...kinda like watching a fight rather then breaking it up. They know it will end poorly for Israel without the US. And probably bring Israel closer to it's end.

US is the only military that can sustain an attack long enough to ensure destruction of the nuclear sites.

[FranciscoG]

Do you think a conventional air power would be even marginally effective against the S-400 system?

[Kratos]

Do you think a conventional air power would be even marginally effective against the S-400 system?

It's not verified that Iran has that system as far as I know.
and yes, I do
You'll loose some aircraft, but in the end have a finite number of missiles defending a given area that aren't going to hit all their targets. So, plenty of planes will get through.

against the f-22, it's probably useless.

the drones are interesting too keep in mind

Israel has an undisclosed number of drones with the wingspan of a 737 that can fly for 20 hours straight.

Although the payload is not listed as very high. I'm sure you could put serval thousand pounds of exposives on board and do so serious damage. They'd be slow and easy as hell to shoot down...but they're cheaper then a missle to build and shear numbers could produce a good amount of damage.

Also you could get them to blow their load as far as sam's by sending them in first. Then the f-15's could come in to do the bunker busting.

Can they hit Iran and do a good bit of damage...probably.
will they? IDK, but I at least doubt it
is it a good idea? almost surely not

[FranciscoG]

When was the last time Israel actually won a military conflict decisively?

Not 2006.

Not 1982-2000 Vs. lebanon.

Not 1973 Egypt took land back.

1967 last decisive victory that I can remember.

As far as I know they have no F-22s, They can not unleash all thier conventional air power because there is a need to some to stay back to defend.

The other issue is the 24+ sites in Iran that are known. Let alone what is not known.

The S-400 or other SAMs are pretty effective againt conventional air power. It all matter on how many F-15s and so on are sent in and how many SAMs are there to defend.

Either way the old saying that you need to shit or get off the pot comes in to play. It has been 3 years of talking and no action.

[Kratos]

Oh yes, 1973 was most surely a decisive victory. Egypt and Syria sued for peace and unless the UN stepped in Egypt at least was about to loose a lot more of their army.

Egypt was given land for a peace agreement.
they still have some of syria's land

Israel won in 1982 against lebanon
occupation is always another story, as they always are

Israel has won every conflict that involved another nation so far, else they wouldn't exist anymore since all fighting was directly on their borders.

[Kratos]

I don't think they have any f-22's yet but applied to buy 50 and it was approved.
they also plan to buy the JSF

but that was more hypothetical if the US were to get involved.

[Kratos]

when was the last time the US won a war though...we still cause plenty of trouble
I think the last time was WWII...maybe the cold war, but a war when shots were fired that was the last one

[FranciscoG]

Iraq war I in 1992.

[Kratos]

this may be interesting to you Pharm
when Israel took out Syria's nuclear site a couple years back, they did so undetected by radar. There were supposidly pods on the F/16's.

http://news.zionism-israel.com/2007/...ria-facts.html

The sams are radar guided, so you can use your imagination there.

[Kratos]

Iraq war I in 1992.

if you say so, we never even tried an occupation or regime change

bush II declared victory after 30 days in iraq this time too, and we had destroyed their military. Same measure of victory...but we didn't win really did we?

Depends on your definition. We stopped their attack and beat back their forces. So that was a clear positive. But we didn't even try to defeat the regime as a whole.

[FranciscoG]

The objective the first time was to get Sadam out of Kuwait. The objective was not to occupy.

[Kratos]

The objective the first time was to get Sadam out of Kuwait. The objective was not to occupy.

sure...fine...but we've been in many wars we didn't win was my point

we were Saudi Arabia's hired whore in the first gulf war anyway

keeping OPEC in tact and the price of oil high, thumbs up on the victory

[RANA]

someone get RANA to shoot that fukin irani durka durka already

thanks for the shout out, I am on a grey hound bus headed over there right now!