Ayatollah's health fails as Iran power struggle grows

[alphaman]

http://pajamasmedia.com/2006/12/spec...supreme_le.php

His death may bring a change in Iran.


Ayatollah's health fails as Iran power struggle grows
by Michael Ledeen

Three days ago, Iran's dictator, Supreme Leader Ayatollah ali Khamenei,
was rushed to the vast medical facility traditionally known as "Vanak"
hospital (it now has an Arabic name that means "the 12th Imam
Hospital"), a 1,200-room facility that saves half of its beds for the
leadership.

Khamenei is known to be suffering from cancer, and taking considerable
quantities of an opium-based pain killer. He has lost more than 17
pounds in the past ten months, and was told last spring that he was
unlikely to see another New Year (In the Iranian calendar, the New Year begins
at the end of March).

Khamenei first complained of chills, and then broke out in a cold
sweat. He lay down to rest, and began to lose feeling in his feet, at which
point his aides got him to the hospital.

Amidst maximum security, and under orders that the event be kept secret
at all costs, the theocrat was placed in one of the luxurious suites
reserved for the country's most important figures. Khamenei's blood
pressure and pulse were alarmingly low, and his physicians at first feared
some sort of hemorrhage. But they could find no trace of internal
bleeding, and concluded that he had had some sort of cardiac crisis.

Khamenei is still undergoing tests and receiving maximum attention. It
is clearly a serious problem because he wanted to leave the hospital,
only to be talked out of it by the doctors. The precise gravity of his
condition is not known, but the argument over the wisdom of moving him
to his own home suggests it may be quite serious.

My sources for this information are a very knowledgeable Iranian cleric
plus another Iranian who has previously provided strikingly accurate
stories from the highest levels of the regime in Tehran, suggesting that
a major crisis may be underway in Iran.

The Power Struggle

The Supreme Leader has good reason to keep his condition secret, and to
seek to demonstrate he retains his ability to rule the country.
Khamenei knows that his regime is riven by intense conflict, some of which has
been dramatically exposed in recent weeks in the run-up to the election
of a new Assembly of Experts (the clerical body whose main
responsibility is the selection of the Supreme Leader).

News of Khamenei's heart problems, especially if they turn out to be
life-threatening, would undoubtedly catalyze the battle at the highest
levels of the regime to control the choice of his successor. Recent
events document both the intensity and the violence of the power struggle.

On November 27th, a military aircraft–an Antonov 74—headed for a
military site near Tabriz crashed shortly after takeoff from Tehran.
Nearly forty deaths were reported, including several top leaders of the
Revolutionary Guards Corps, the country's elite military organization. The
dead included some of Khamenei's closest allies and advisers, and their
loss was a serious blow for him.

Most Iranians–who are in any case reluctant to believe in accidents
when the mighty are killed–are convinced the plane was sabotaged,
especially as this is the latest in a sequence of spectacular airplane
disasters, producing high-level military casualties.

About a week earlier, a military helicopter came down, killing all six
people on board. Last January, Ahmad Kazemi, the Revolutionary Guards'
ground commander, and seven other senior officers, were killed in the
crash of a French-made Falcon, a small executive jet, near the Turkish
border. Barely a month before, yet another military aircraft, a C-130,
came down near Tehran airport, hit a ten-story building, and killed 115
people (mostly journalists).

A week ago, the Majlis (the national assembly) passed a law effectively
reducing the presidential term of Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nezhad by a full year.
This was universally seen as an attack in favor of former President
Hashemi Rafsanjani, Ahmadi-Nezhad's most visible political rival, and a
candidate to succeed Khamenei.

Meanwhile, as reported in Iran Press News, the ongoing public challenge
to the regime itself continues unabated.

On Wednesday, thousands of students demonstrated on the campus of
Tehran University, chanting "death to despotism," and "death to the
dictator." And in Mazandaran Province, up by the Caspian Sea, thousands of
angry workers protested in front of Ahmadi-Nezhad himself, announcing they
were starving and demanding the government honor its promise to improve
the lot of the poor.

As yet, news of the Supreme Leader's medical problems has remained a
secret, known only to a handful of trusted aides and colleagues. But it
is only a matter of time before Khamenei's condition becomes public
knowledge. With unknown ramifications to the stability of Iran and the
region at large.

[Kärnfysikern]

I sure hope it wont turn out that ahmajinead gets more power if the ayatholla dies.

Sounds like things arent that comfy over there right now...